Translated material
Failure at Rambouillet
The “golden pause” in resolving the Karabakh conflict turned out to be empty
Expectations for a breakthrough in resolving the Karabakh conflict from a two-day meeting at the end of the week between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia in the medieval castle of Rambouillet near Paris were in vain. Ilham Aliyev and Robert Kocharyan failed to reach an agreement on a draft future settlement. As stated in the communiqué of the OSCE Minsk Group (MG) on Karabakh, published on Saturday evening, “despite intensive discussions, the positions of the parties on some aspects of the Karabakh problem remained the same as they have been in recent months.” One of the co-chairs of the Minsk Group, American diplomat Stephen Mann (two more co-chairs represent Russia and France - Yuri Merzlyakov and Bernard Fassier), was laconic: “No agreement was reached, we will evaluate the results of the negotiations in Rambouillet and see what to do next.”This “further” has been determined - the co-chairs of the Minsk Group will now gather together in early March in Washington and invite the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan there to try to resume direct dialogue between the heads of the two conflicting states. And the other day, straight from Paris, the MG co-chairs will go to Brussels, where they will meet with the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Belgian Foreign Minister Karel de Gucht and will report to him about the results of the meeting in Rambouillet.
Little is known about how the negotiations between Aliyev and Kocharyan took place. Only that their first meeting on February 10 lasted a total of about four hours. First, for 40 minutes in the presence of three co-chairs of the Minsk Group, who presented their proposals for resolving the conflict to the presidents. Then Aliyev and Kocharyan talked privately for two and a half hours, after which they invited their foreign ministers, Oskanian and Mamedyarov. And before the start of the negotiations, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia were received by French President Jacques Chirac, who then stated that “there are real chances to lay the foundations for resolving the Karabakh problem.”
What really prevented this can only be judged by individual statements by international mediators or by comments already coming from Baku and Yerevan. According to the Azerbaijani TV channel ANS, the presidents were unable to reach agreement on two of the nine points discussed at the meeting - on the return of refugees and internally displaced persons, as well as on the issue of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. Judging by the information received yesterday by Vremya Novostei from informed sources in Paris close to the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations, such an interpretation is close to reality, but is presented taking into account the position of official Baku.
According to our source, the dialogue between the presidents stumbled on issues related to the gradual liberation by Armenia of several regions occupied by it around Nagorno-Karabakh, primarily the Kalbajar region, and preparations for holding a referendum in Karabakh regarding the future status of the enclave. This is the same “package principle” of settlement that Yerevan adheres to. However, the idea of a referendum did not meet with the support of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev; Baku insists on a step-by-step solution to the problem: first, the return of the occupied Azerbaijani territories by Armenia without any conditions, and only then a discussion of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh.
This position was due to internal political reasons. Holding a referendum on the status of Karabakh, which could result in the declaration of its independence, in the current conditions would not find support among the overwhelming majority of Azerbaijanis. But it is unlikely that Baku’s position came as a surprise to the initiators of the meeting in Rambouillet, primarily French President Jacques Chirac. Ilham Aliyev warned that the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan cannot be the subject of negotiations. This position forced Armenian President Robert Kocharyan to change “cautious optimism” to “very cautious” on the eve of the meeting.
The failure of the rendezvous in Rambouillet, according to Vremya Novostey's informed diplomatic sources, may mean one thing: in 2006 it is unlikely that it will be possible to organize a new round of negotiations between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the hope that their willingness to compromise will be greater than in February . Such pessimism is caused by at least one organizational reason: the next such opportunity will arise only after the CIS summit, which will not be held until the end of summer. And by the end of the year, both Baku and Yerevan will be even less inclined to compromise; preparations for elections of various levels will begin in both countries. And that very “golden pause” for resolving the Karabakh conflict, due to the lack of internal political tension in Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2006, which international mediators spoke about with such hope, will be exhausted.