“CITIZENS, HAND IN YOUR CURRENCY”

FINANCE

Disturbing letters began to come to the editor. Readers are puzzled: to give them the currency (US) or not? It is clear what the anxiety of people inexperienced in the intricacies of the Russian and world financial systems is based on. On the one side,...

Disturbing letters began to come to the editor. Readers are puzzled: to give them the currency (US) or not? It is clear what the anxiety of people inexperienced in the intricacies of the Russian and world financial systems is based on. On the one hand, native officials tirelessly tell them about how confidently and tirelessly the ruble is growing and how profitable it is to keep savings in it. On the other hand, in the media, no, no, and there are reports that foreign analysts, and even statesmen, periodically predict a quick and inevitable death for the dollar. In a word, there is something to worry about. Therefore, we decided to take a closer look at this situation.

The first harbinger of evil was US Treasury Secretary John Snow, who on the eve of 2006 predicted a default for his country. What happens to the currency in such a situation is understandable. However, this did not cause a shock in the world currency market. It seems that analysts understood that Mr. Snow decided on such a tough statement in order to induce Congress to revise the so-called borrowing bar upwards. It is understandable. War has always been a luxury, and in order to pay for it, you have to borrow more and more in foreign markets.

The next oracle was the Standard & Poor's agency, which expressed concern that due to China's possible refusal to place its gold and foreign exchange reserves in dollars (and this is, after all, 800 billion), the American currency risks falling in price by 25-30%. Analysts generally agree with this scenario, but the likelihood of it, frankly, is not highly estimated. “I would rather say that S&P has drawn attention to the problem of imbalances in the global economy,” says Anton STRUCHENEVSKY, an analyst at Troika Dialog. - Indeed, the US economy has two deficits - the budget and the current account. These deficits are financed by China, Russia, India and other countries that accumulate gold and foreign exchange reserves. Theoretically, China's refusal to invest in US securities could indeed lead to a devaluation of the dollar. However, let's think about it: is it beneficial for China?

It must be said that China is growing at a fairly rapid pace, largely due to increased exports to the United States. Consequently, the hypothetical strengthening of the yuan could have a negative impact on the economic development of the country, which is hardly in the interests of the Chinese leadership. In general, we can expect the status quo to continue this year.”

Alexei MAMONTOV, president of the Moscow International Monetary Association, is more strict about the situation: “The S&P forecast is real, but in the perspective of three to five years. Until the end of the year, it is half possible: the dollar exchange rate against the ruble will fall by 15-20%. That is, a non-dramatic decline, but not a collapse, is quite acceptable. S&P just stated the risks. Experts do not even indicate the likelihood of their implementation.

Today, global markets are increasingly fluctuating as more centers of gravity emerge. Therefore, fluctuations of the dollar against the ruble in the near future will be natural. In general, the situation will not radically change. A steady and long-term depreciation of the dollar is expected. In addition, in the coming years there will be a glut of foreign exchange markets. In that case, China might change its economic policy.”

In a word, assessing the probability of a sharp fall in the dollar, experts say that this cannot happen, but not in the sense that this can never happen. But they are sure of one thing: if the worst does happen, then our financial authorities will not be able to do anything in this situation, and the consequences will be extremely dramatic both for the personal savings of citizens and for the gold and foreign exchange reserves with the Stabilization Fund to boot. Although the economy as a whole can survive.

If only because there is more than one reserve currency in the world. “A depreciation of the dollar against the ruble will reduce the cost of imports, but Russian enterprises will have problems, as this will increase the cost of their products,” says Alexei Mamontov. - If the dollar collapses on the world currency market, then Russia will not be able to do anything. At the same time, the euro will rise in price, which should somewhat protect our consumer.”

In fairness, it is worth noting that there has not been a default in the United States in the entire history of the country, so it would be wrong to panic. And nothing foretells it seriously yet. If we talk about how we manage money right now, then analysts give some practical advice. “Individuals should relax. The dollar will only fluctuate. The economic growth of Russia will ensure the strengthening of the ruble. But the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will fight inflation, so it will not allow the ruble to strengthen much, - calms Alexei Bulgakov from the analytical department of the investment company Aton. - I advise Russians to keep their money in the currency in which they are supposed to spend it. And if you decide to save, then remember that the nominal income in rubles exceeds the income from a deposit in dollars.

“I advise readers: if there are small funds, then it is better to spend them; those who have large funds - to distribute in two currencies (dollar and euro) in order to somewhat materially and morally compensate for losses, - adds Alexei Mamontov. “In general, copying the actions of central banks is very reasonable and correct.”

Good, uplifting advice. Especially in that part of it that concerns people with little money, and, as you know, they are in the vast majority in Russia.