| Russia is tired of defending Iranian President Ahmadinejad Russia, which until now has played the role of Iran's main lawyer on the international stage, seems to have begun to lose patience. Russia's position on the Iranian nuclear file has become tougher. If earlier Moscow considered it premature to transfer Iran's dossier to the UN Security Council, then yesterday Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov already admitted this possibility. For Iranians, this is a worrying sign. Moreover, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry did not ignore the next scandalous statements of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Thus, Lavrov called the words of the Iranian leader that he “wishes a speedy death” to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who is unconscious after a massive stroke, “beyond the scope of diplomacy and human relations.” At the end of last year, Russia, along with other countries, condemned the Iranian president for calling for Israel to be erased from the world map and calling the Holocaust a “myth.”
The foreign ministers of three European Union countries - Great Britain, Germany and France - spoke yesterday about the fact that Iran's nuclear dossier needs to be transferred to the Security Council as soon as possible. This trio has been negotiating with Tehran for a long time and with varying success. The High Representative of the European Union for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, is also participating in the negotiations. Europeans gathered in Berlin yesterday for an emergency meeting, prompted by Iran's resumption of uranium enrichment research earlier this week. The Iranians were not stopped by warnings from Moscow, Washington and Brussels about the undesirability of such a step. On the contrary, just yesterday Iranian specialists completed the process of removing seals at the Natanz nuclear facility that began on Tuesday. However, Tehran still maintains a moratorium on uranium enrichment itself and states that all its research is peaceful and does not have the goal of creating a nuclear bomb.
However, the West does not trust the Iranians. Yesterday, the European troika interrupted negotiations with Iran and demanded that a meeting of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency be held not in early March (as agreed), but no later than in early February. In turn, the IAEA council will most likely decide to transfer Iran's nuclear file to the UN Security Council. Yesterday it was also decided that at the beginning of next week an emergency expanded meeting on the Iranian problem will be held in London: the EU troika plus Russia, the USA and China. According to Vremya Novostey, all participants agreed that the importance of the topic requires the participation of the foreign ministers themselves in this meeting, so Sergei Lavrov will represent Russia.
The United States will preside over the UN Security Council in February. Washington has long insisted on transferring the Iranian issue to the Security Council, with the prospect of introducing economic sanctions against Tehran. So Iran's situation is getting worse, especially given the change in Russia's position.
However, experts disagree on the Russian position. MGIMO professor and expert at the Moscow Carnegie Center Alexey Malashenko, in an interview with Vremya Novostey, noted that Russia’s position has not actually changed that much. Cooperation with Iran is still ongoing. In the opinion of our interlocutor, “Russia’s position remains the same, no matter what statements Sergei Lavrov makes.” The expert believes that Moscow, by tightening its tone, “is playing a solid political game, but just a game, and Russia will never refuse cooperation with Iran.” And Russian diplomacy will most likely try to prevent the Iranian dossier from being considered in the UN Security Council.
“Russia is trying to bring Iran to reason,” Rajab Safarov, general director of the Russian Center for the Study of Modern Iran, commented to Vremya Novostey on Moscow’s toughening tone. However, he believes that Moscow’s position has really changed, and this is not a game: “Unfortunately, the latest statements by the President of Iran and the latest steps by the Iranians in the field of the nuclear program have led to the fact that the world community is consolidating. And this consensus is not in favor of Iran.” In Mr. Safarov’s opinion, Russia “may well join its Western colleagues,” although it will also try to make last-ditch efforts to return the Iranians to the usual negotiating track and prevent the transfer of the dossier to the UN Security Council. Both Malashenko and Safarov believe that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's latest scandalous statements have greatly complicated Moscow's mediation mission. The Russian Foreign Ministry, according to Vremya Novostei, also believes that Ahmadinejad is at great risk if he continues to act in the same spirit.
In Russia, however, there are many supporters of continuing cooperation with Iran in nuclear energy and in the military field. According to available data, Tehran paid Moscow about $800 million for the construction of the first power unit of the Bushehr nuclear power plant alone. At the end of last year, an agreement was signed between our countries on the sale of 30 Tor-M1 anti-aircraft missile systems to Iran. The contract value is more than $1 billion. However, Moscow is unlikely to be able to ignore the danger of research in the field of uranium enrichment to the accompaniment of anti-Israeli and anti-Western attacks by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Yesterday, in an interview with Ekho Moskvy, Sergei Lavrov called the Iranian problem “very acute” and complained that Tehran was moving away from its obligations. And the Washington Post newspaper reported on a telephone conversation between the Russian minister and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on January 10. The Foreign Minister allegedly made it clear that Russia may abstain from voting on the American proposal in the IAEA Board of Governors (which would actually mean transferring the Iranian dossier to the UN Security Council). True, Vremya Novostey’s source in the Russian Foreign Ministry refused to confirm this fact. He said that Russia and the United States are still united by “deep disappointment” with the decision of the Iranian authorities to resume nuclear research work. Our interlocutor, however, admitted that the aggravation of the situation around Iran's nuclear program will affect the cooperation of our countries. After all, the Tor-M1 air defense system has not yet been delivered to Iran. In addition, the day before yesterday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Sergei Ivanov admitted that the development of the situation around Iran gives him “certain anxiety.” Although he had not previously questioned the defensive nature of Iranian military programs.
Iran has one chance left: to agree to Moscow's proposal to enrich uranium, necessary for Iran's peaceful nuclear program, on Russian territory. If Tehran finally refuses, it will lose its last lawyer. Elena SUPONINA, Petr ISKENDEROV |
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