| The Ministry of Finance wrote a scenario of not doubling GDP by 2010 The scenario conditions for the socio-economic development of the domestic economy, developed by the Ministry of Economic Development for 2007-2009, do not imply any significant tax innovations. This finally became clear yesterday at a meeting of the budget commission chaired by Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov. Moreover, this is not particularly the fault of economists, since the author of the words and music is 99% the Ministry of Finance. (The only truly revolutionary proposal of the country’s chief economist, German Gref, is to reset the VAT rate for the aviation industry. But this innovation has so far been scrapped.)
The report “On the main directions of tax policy for 2007-2009” submitted by the Ministry of Finance can be called technical, conservative and devoid of innovations. That is, the direct opposite of the tasks that the Prime Minister set for the Ministry of Finance. True, the financiers did fulfill one instruction from the head of government. The report says in black and white: “An analysis of the possible consequences of reducing VAT to 13%, carried out on behalf of the Prime Minister, showed that this measure will not have a significant impact on economic growth. At the same time, serious problems will be created for the country’s fiscal sustainability, including the possibility of a budget deficit under certain conditions.” This is such a harmful measure, Mr. Fradkov.
“At the same time,” the Ministry of Finance went further in its “humiliation” of the idea of reducing the VAT rate. The report submitted to the government contains a proposal to unify the VAT rate at 15%. In other words, from 2009 the Ministry of Finance would be ready to reduce the general VAT rate to 15% and increase the preferential rate from 10 to 15%. But even before the meeting of the budget commission, someone politically literate, perhaps even from the Kremlin, suggested to the Ministry of Finance officials the extent of their social responsibility for increasing the preferential rate. They say that recovering Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin called the prime minister from the hospital with a request to withdraw the excessive VAT scare.
And when yesterday at the budget commission, Mr. Kudrin’s deputy Sergei Shatalov accidentally forgot that the measure did not fit into the government’s plans, the Minister of Agriculture Alexei Gordeev quickly reminded him of this: “Can you imagine what a social resonance there will be?! Do you take responsibility?!” In response, Mr. Shatalov only confirmed the withdrawal of the “bold proposal.” However, the report left an equally daring justification from the point of view of a categorical position on the harmfulness of reducing VAT to 13%. The Ministry of Finance's analysis states that this measure will lead to an increase in growth rates of only 0.34% of GDP. According to financiers, “in 2007-2008, with a reduction in the VAT rate to 13%, the surplus will turn into a deficit of 0.4% of GDP.” Also, “the volume of money supply will increase, inflation targets will not be met and the real strengthening of the ruble will accelerate.” An analysis of how many VAT payments will be brought out of the shadows is not provided. Although in the same report, the Ministry of Finance emphasizes that the scale of VAT evasion is enormous, and the government should stop this evil.
As for the rest, the Ministry of Finance considers a further increase in excise taxes on alcohol products unrealistic, but realistic on gasoline “depending on its quality.” He proposes to leave a 13 percent income tax as an outlet for citizens. And, perhaps, polish the mineral extraction tax, if possible, because it is very labor-intensive.
The head of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, German Gref, listened to Mr. Shatalov’s proposals without enthusiasm, but in the end he decided to tease his colleagues from the Ministry of Finance a little: “Tell me, and based on what VAT rate should we now calculate VAT in our scenario conditions for three years?! » Prime Minister Fradkov recalled that no one changed the basic parameters. This means that the “development scenario”, as calculated on the basis of the 18 percent VAT rate, remained that way.
Even earlier, on March 17, the budget commission considered “scenario conditions”, which should be approved today at a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers. And it cannot be said that they will be able to greatly inspire anyone: neither the authors nor their leaders. They, including 2009, have not even come close to doubling GDP or any significant “other” growth. The inertial scenario (calculated based on oil prices - $49 per barrel in 2007 and $46 in 2008-2009) provides for GDP growth in 2007 of 5.3%, in 2008-2009. m -5.1%, in 2009 - 5%. The moderately optimistic option (the same oil price plus a package of innovative and investment measures) provides for GDP growth of 5.7% in 2007, in 2008 - 5.8%, in 2009 - 6%. It is clear that this will not double GDP by 2010; for this, the economy must grow by 7.2% annually. The only achievement of the “scenario conditions” can be called the inflation level: in 2007 - 6-7.5%, in 2008 - 4-5.5%, in 2009 - 4-5%.
Not a bad bar, considering the current state of affairs. On March 20, Rosstat presented new figures. Inflation for less than three months is 4.6%, with a forecast for the year of 8-9%. Vera KUZNETSOVA |
|
