| Tymoshenko fears rapprochement between Yushchenko and Yanukovych Last night, Ukraine almost learned the results of the elections to the Verkhovna Rada. The processing of 98% of the protocols of precinct election commissions did not change the list of leaders - these are the opposition Party of Regions, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT), the presidential bloc "Our Ukraine", the Socialist Party and the Communist Party. According to the Central Election Commission, 31.87% of voters voted for the Party of Regions, 22.34% for BYuT, 14.1% for the Our Ukraine bloc, 5.74% for the Socialist Party, 3 for the Communist Party .65%. It is obvious that none of the parties received a majority of votes and a coalition will have to be created to form a government.
The most likely is considered to be an “orange” alliance consisting of Our Ukraine, BYuT and the Socialist Party. However, the former comrades still cannot agree on the conditions for joining the coalition. They are unable to combine the leadership role of President Viktor Yushchenko with the ambitions of ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, whose bloc was noticeably ahead of the presidential “Our Ukraine” in the elections. The president's supporters propose to revive the "orange" coalition of 2004, headed by Yushchenko. But Yulia Tymoshenko does not want to recognize the leadership of the head of state and demands the creation of a democratic coalition around the BYuT program, and not the president. She is vying for the position of prime minister and, in addition, wants to secure the vacancy of at least one security minister for BYuT.
Ms. Tymoshenko would like to sign a memorandum on creating an “orange” coalition as quickly as possible. “Delaying the moment of signing may indicate a loss of time for the formation of a coalition of democratic forces and become a premise for an unacceptable coalition between Our Ukraine and the Party of Regions,” she said at a press conference yesterday. She noted that the “orange” alliance would have about 250 votes in parliament - “this is an absolutely reliable majority, sufficient to shape policy, form all the absolute components of power and give the long-awaited result to society.”
However, Yulia Tymoshenko was still worried about a possible agreement between Our Ukraine and the Party of Regions. Just in case, she warned: this alliance “is absolutely not a unification of the east and west” of the country; rather, it would be a “unity of clans.” According to her, “people don’t understand that the Party of Regions is one of the most powerful business structures in Ukraine, which cannot simultaneously be the government.” Tymoshenko called the Party of Regions a textbook example of “the influence of big capital on politics, the reform of politics by big capital.”
Let us note that on the website of the presidential “Our Ukraine” yesterday, a statement by one of the leaders of the bloc, Foreign Minister Boris Tarasyuk, first appeared and then disappeared. He said that “some conversations could begin” with the Party of Regions about a coalition under three conditions: “refusal of federalism and the status of the state language for the Russian language,” as well as “recognition of Ukraine’s European integration course.”
Yesterday, the Socialist Party published its memorandum on the creation of an “orange” coalition and announced the decision of the political council to sign it. BYuT supports this version of the document. Judging by the text, the figure of the president will become purely symbolic. The President does not have the right to veto the candidacy of the Prime Minister, which is proposed by the “member of the coalition who received the largest number of votes” (that is, BYuT). The coalition gives the president the right to appoint only one of the four security officials - the Minister of Defense. The positions of the head of the security service, the prosecutor general and the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs will be distributed among the three coalition participants. Moreover, each member of the “orange” alliance receives government positions “in proportion to the election results.” In the memorandum, coalition participants undertake “not to enter into separate negotiations with any party or bloc.”
At first, the head of the presidential party’s election campaign, Roman Bezsmertny, recognized BYuT’s right to nominate the prime minister. However, Yushchenko did not like this idea, and he removed Bezsmertny from the post of the main “negotiator” to create a coalition, appointing Prime Minister Yuri Yekhanurov instead. Yushchenko publicly stated that he could block the candidacy of the prime minister proposed by the parliamentary majority, although “he would not want this.” According to him, this right is given to the president in order to decide how “the candidacy of the prime minister meets the national interests.”
If Viktor Yushchenko accepts Yulia Tymoshenko's leadership in the hope of continuing economic and political reforms, he will only be able to maintain his influence for a while. But the alliance with the Party of Regions also does not promise him bright political prospects. The year of rule of the “orange” president showed that Yushchenko is not so strong as to successfully resist the monolithic and sophisticated “regionals”. In addition, it is simply dangerous for the president to let the ambitious Tymoshenko go free. If the “orange” join the coalition, it will be forced to coordinate its actions with its partners. If the leader of BYuT finds herself outside the power alliance, she will begin to actively seek allies in the war with the president both within the country and abroad. This threatens Ukraine with political instability and a battle for leadership between powerful influence groups.
Experts admit that Tymoshenko will nevertheless agree to the appointment of a “technical prime minister” who would take responsibility for the economic problems in the country that have accumulated since the elections. This would make it possible to recreate the Orange union, but would not guarantee its longevity. “Now the president’s supporters are frightened by the election results and are ready for any compromise. However, the very first government meeting will lead to great disappointment. Over the past year, the confrontation between BYuT and Our Ukraine has gone so far that it is generally unclear how they will pursue a coordinated policy,” Ukrainian political scientist Viktor Nebozhenko noted to Vremya Novostey. Svetlana STEPANENKO, Kyiv |
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