| Gazprom admitted to gas shortage Gazprom openly admitted yesterday that it has little gas and that in a few years Russia will not be able to satisfy the growing demand for this type of fuel in all consuming countries. According to the deputy chairman of the board of Gazprom, Alexander Ryazanov, most likely it will be necessary to limit supplies to those who pay non-market prices, that is, domestic Russian consumers. And the head of the concern, Alexey Miller, recently stated that if European countries “limit Gazprom’s activities in the European market and politicize issues of gas supplies, which in fact are purely economic,” then this “will not lead to good results.” After all, the concern is trying to diversify exports and is negotiating large-scale supplies with China and the United States (although no contracts have been signed yet). By the way, yesterday the European Union responded to this statement. "This statement confirms our concerns about Europe's growing dependence on foreign suppliers... and the need to diversify both sources and supply routes," said a spokesman for EU Energy Policy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs, adding that Gazprom is free to choose its client. .
Speaking at the annual meeting of the Russian Gas Society, Alexander Ryazanov said that Gazprom has almost no new large fields in the traditional production region - the Nadym-Purtazovsky region. This means that before the start of industrial gas production on the Yamal Peninsula (at best, this will happen in 2012-2013), the gas monopolist does not have serious resources to compensate for the falling production at the giant fields that have been operating since Soviet times. Mr. Ryazanov even announced an unprecedented intention for Gazprom to attract the resources of independent producers to fill the pipe - LUKOIL, TNK-BP, NOVATEK and even YUKOS. By 2010, these companies can increase gas production in this region by approximately 45-55 billion cubic meters. True, space in the pipe will appear only in three years.
The last large, according to Mr. Ryazanov's classification (that is, with an annual production of over 25-30 billion cubic meters), field in the Nadym-Purtazovsky region - Yuzhno-Russkoye - will be commissioned by Gazprom in 2008. After which, the monopoly will only have difficult-to-recover resources (the Achimov deposits of the Urengoy and Zapolyarnoye fields), which require special technologies, special costs and additional infrastructure for purification, as well as the reserves of Yamal, the development program of which has been in development for many years and requires at least 80 billion dollars of capital costs for organizing production and creating transport infrastructure.
For independent manufacturers, the situation looks more optimistic. LUKOIL, through the development of fields in the Bolshekhetskaya Depression, intends to increase annual production from the current 6 billion to 25 billion cubic meters in 2015. By the end of the decade, NOVATEK plans to produce about 50 billion cubic meters per year (currently 27 billion). TNK-BP, through gas production at Rospan, can extract up to 15 billion cubic meters. In addition, the annual potential of the Beregovoye field, which the desperate Itera proposes to Gazprom to develop jointly, is about 11 billion cubic meters. The implementation of these plans, if there is space in the pipeline, will give Gazprom a short break in the development of the Yamal Peninsula.
But even such significant volumes of gas will not be enough to satisfy the growing demand in Russia, the republics of the former Soviet Union, Europe and China. According to Mr. Ryazanov, it will most likely be necessary to sacrifice the growth of domestic consumption. The deputy chairman of the board of Gazprom once again complained about the non-market nature of pricing in our country. He proposed to be more active in gas conservation now, implying that in a few years it will be too late - either prices will skyrocket quickly and painfully, or gas shortages will increase even more significantly. To illustrate the existence of a shortage, a top manager of the monopoly said that “consumers are running around gas producers” and asking for gas at any price. “They are not at all interested in prices,” Mr. Ryazanov summed up. All increases from independent producers will go towards meeting demand in Europe and possibly debuting in the Asian pipeline gas market.
However, whatever Gazprom’s desires to achieve market pricing in Russia, they will obviously collide with the interests of the state as a whole, which are not yet compatible with the high cost of gas in the foreseeable future.
And the President of the Energy Policy Institute, Vladimir Milov, points out that cold winters will each time remind all gas consumers - both in Russia and in the world - that fuel shortages will only increase. “Previously, Gazprom’s top managers have not made such open admissions about gas shortages,” he says, “although experts pointed to a shortage three years ago. Now Russia faces huge problems - the deficit will increase, this will manifest itself during consumption peaks, that is, in winter, when supplies begin to decline. Everyone will get it - not just Russia. After all, Gazprom has not been able to begin the development of Yamal for 15 years and has not made investments. Now it is urgent to attract these investments, and I think this should be done by better management.” Alexey GRIVACHS |
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