YUSHCHENKO SMELLS OF GAS

UKRAINE

The second Russian-Ukrainian gas war has begun. So influential forces have been pulled up to the front line that it threatens to develop into a world one. Loud threats are already being made. They may concern the Black Sea Fleet and the CIS, but in fact everything that ...

The second Russian-Ukrainian gas war has begun. So influential forces have been pulled up to the front line that it threatens to develop into a world one. Loud threats are already being made. They may concern the Black Sea Fleet and the CIS, but in fact everything that the warring parties say concerns only gas. In this sense, the Russian Federation has already become a "great energy empire."

The alignment of forces on the Ukrainian front is the same as last autumn. Gazprom is making statements about its intention to charge $230 per thousand cubic meters from the Slavic brothers in the next six months. Kyiv, represented by President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yekhanurov, assures that this is impossible, now referring to the agreement of January 4 and the price fixed in it at $95.

The experience of the "first gas" has shown that the Russian monopoly is able to insist on its own, even if for this it is necessary to leave the Old World without blue fuel. In Kyiv, apparently, they understand this and are preparing for the inevitable. The Ukrainian government approved a doubling of gas prices for the population, budgetary organizations and public utilities from July 1.

But the best defense, according to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, is an attack. That is why Deputy Minister Vladimir Ogryzko, after the failed talks in Moscow on the Black Sea Fleet, makes a statement about the country's withdrawal from the CIS (later this idea was confirmed by the presidential secretariat). The negotiations failed because the day before Ukrainian diplomats and officials of the Ministry of Defense announced their intention to tie the rent for Sevastopol to gas prices: you increase, so do we.

All these threats will not frighten Gazprom, Ukrainian expert Vitaliy Kulik believes. Evidence of this is Putin's demonstrative reluctance to come to Ukraine.

The war could have been considered lost, but Dick Cheney's harsh speech in Vilnius followed, where he accused Russia of energy blackmail. Europe has not yet supported the sharp attacks of the United States, although it is the victim of Gazprom's blackmail. The Old World has swallowed Alexey Miller's threat to redirect gas flows to Asia if the Russian monopoly is not allowed to invest in the European distribution sector. The representative of the European Commission Ferran Tarradellas Espuni said that the European Union is in favor of continuing cooperation with Russia in the field of gas supplies.

The position of the European Commission is not so tough because Gazprom's policy towards the Old World is not as aggressive as towards fraternal Ukraine and Belarus, and promises an economic gain. This is due not only to the prospect of access by European companies to Russian fields, but also to the emergence of the already world-famous company RosUkrEnergo on the forefront.

At the end of April, Izvestia, citing the results of the RUE audit conducted by Pricewaterhouse Coopers, finally announced the names of the company's shareholders. In addition to Gazprom, these are Ukrainian citizens Dmitry Firtash (45%) and Ivan Fursin (5%). Firtash is associated with a reputable businessman Semyon Mogilevich. But the results of the audit hit Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko much harder, who not only met personally with Firtash in early 2005, but also allowed the businessman to pay for his mother-in-law's flight from the US to Kiev. There are rumors that Firtash also financed the election campaign of the presidential party Our Ukraine.

Kiev is perplexed: why Gazprom named the shareholders of RosUkrEnergo after the elections and did not use this information to support Yanukovych. The answer is simple: it's a different game. Ukraine has served as a platform for the legitimization of "RosUkrEnergo" (to be honest, not very successful) and fades into the background. Ahead is Europe.

RosUkrEnergo has already entered the markets of Poland, Hungary and Slovakia. There, the company trades Russian gas through an intermediary Emfesz, and sells it for 20-30 dollars cheaper than Gazprom. The secret of such "charity", apparently, must be sought in the structure of shareholders. There are rumors in Kyiv that immediately after the conclusion of the January agreements, which caused increased attention to RosUkrEnergo, the company's documents were re-registered. Firtash and Fursin, who emerged from the shadows as a result of this operation, are in fact nominal shareholders and represent the interests of much more famous personalities in Ukraine and Russia. The real Russian share is much less than the officially declared 50%. Given that Gazprom is already allowing RosUkrEnergo to dump on the European market, one can make the most daring assumptions.

It can also be assumed that RUE will not stop at the Central European market. Dmitry Firtash, who suddenly became public, has already announced his intention to hold an IPO, and with the proceeds from the sale of shares, to start several large projects for the construction of gas pipelines in Central Asia together with Gazprom. So far, no European bank has dared to place shares in a dubious company. But who knows if the Old World will resist the temptation to buy Gazprom's product cheaper and turn a blind eye to who and how will get big money from this dubious diversification?