Visiting Professor

German Gref told students whether there is life without oil

In order to survive in a global world, Russia needs to increase the competitiveness of its economy. This well-known truth began the lecture of the Minister of Economic Development and Trade German Gref for students of the sponsored Academy of Foreign Trade. “If we move at a speed lower than that of the entire economic world, we will remain on the sidelines,” the minister explained.

The lecturer offered the following recipes on how to keep pace with all developed countries: diversification of the economy and access to foreign markets. But the main thing is not to close yourself off from the outside world with protectionist barriers, but, on the contrary, to open the economy. “The tougher the competition, the higher the competitiveness,” the minister is convinced.

Russian enterprises, according to Mr. Gref, should not count on state protection and hope that negotiations on joining the World Trade Organization will never end. “In order to win at the student sports competition, it is enough to jump about eighty meters. But if you want to compete at the Olympics, you need a level of two twenty,” the minister figuratively explained his logic to the students.

Business should increase the attractiveness of its products, and the government, for its part, is ready to help it: “the key is the national plan for economic diversification over the next ten to fifteen years.” For now, the Russian economy is reliably protected from disasters by high energy prices, but in twenty years, the minister predicted, alternative energy sources will appear in the world, and Russian resources will no longer be in demand. This could happen earlier, so Russia must change the structure of the economy as quickly as possible so as not to create conditions for shocks.

Russia will become a member of the WTO much sooner than in twenty years, the minister is sure, and then we need to be ready to open markets for Western goods. “We do not sense any reluctance on the part of the United States for Russia to join the WTO,” Mr. Gref said. In addition, American President George Bush, in a recent conversation with the Russian president, reaffirmed that everything will be done to ensure that the negotiations are completed as soon as possible, the Minister of Economy revealed a state secret. We could have joined the WTO five times already, he assured those present, but we only want to do it on the most favorable terms.

However, Russia itself is interested in joining the world trading club as soon as possible. In 2000, only five restrictions worth $100 million were in force against Russia. This year there are already 117 such restrictions, and the annual damage to the Russian economy is about $2 billion. “As soon as we join, we will immediately demand a review of all one hundred and seventeen restrictions,” - - the minister promised. “At the same time, if you compare us with Ukraine, not to mention Kyrgyzstan, Moldova or China, then we are leaving the negotiation process in a more armed state,” Mr. Gref emphasized.

While German Gref was giving a lecture, it became known that the government intends to adjust macroeconomic indicators. Next week, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade will submit to the government “refined dynamics” of all macroeconomic indicators for this year, as well as for the three years ahead. However, in which direction - decrease or increase - the GDP forecast will be revised, the minister flatly refused to say.

Vera SITNINA