Iron off-road

Politicians and military slow down train from Korea to Korea

The long-awaited trial run of trains on the reunited Trans-Korean Railway, scheduled for today, will not take place. North Korea canceled the ceremony yesterday, citing a lack of military guarantees for the test flight and South Korea's unstable position. Seoul said Pyongyang's unilateral decision was "greatly regrettable and does not promote reconciliation and does not improve the situation on the Korean Peninsula."

An agreement on a trial run of trains on the railway between the two Koreas, reunited for the first time in half a century, was reached on May 19 in the North Korean city of Kaesong during a working meeting between representatives of the DPRK and the Republic of Korea. The trains were supposed to cross the military demarcation line in two places - on the way from the South Korean city of Musan to the North Korean Kaesong in the western section of the four-kilometer demilitarized zone (DMZ) and on the line between the Kumgangsan station in the DPRK and the city of Chejin in South Korea in its eastern part. 100 officials of the two Korean states, as well as 300 residents of South Korea, were preparing for the trip.

The rails on two sections of the DMZ were joined on June 14, 2003, but then slipping began. The railways were held hostage by politicians and the military. The United States is clearly opposed to the project, as it does not want to “encourage” North Korea until the nuclear problem is resolved. The Americans do not want their allies in Seoul to strengthen cooperation with the United States' worst enemies in Pyongyang, and a working road would increase interdependence between the ROK, Russia and China. Japan is probably guided by the same considerations - although for its business a quick route to Europe would be useful, and the railway project itself would be a good area for investment. The European Union is also passive, seemingly interested in cheap Eurasian transit and the socio-economic development of the DPRK.

The project would help the DPRK itself restore its decayed railway network and receive revenue from transit. Turning the country into an important transport hub would reduce the threat of foreign military attack or international blockade. The problem is that the local military is still afraid of opening access to the deep areas of the DPRK. That is why it was not possible to agree on the most beneficial transport route for Russia and the Republic of Kazakhstan through the center of the DMZ.

The Republic of Kazakhstan is not yet seriously thinking about either the routes or the prospects for trans-Asian transit. But it is the South Koreans who will have to pay for transit and choose between the western (via China) and eastern (via Russia) routes.

China is interested in gaining access to the Pacific Ocean and a cheap, fast trade route to South Korea. For Beijing, this is also a way to increase its influence on the peninsula and push North Korea towards development along a market path. For Russia, the benefits of railway communication between the north and south of Korea include strengthening the role of our country as a Euro-Asian bridge, the possibility of modernizing the Trans-Siberian Railway, and strengthening political stability in the region adjacent to the borders.

However, the western line is unlikely to become the main trans-Asian transit route. After all, almost all of its capacity will be occupied by bilateral Chinese-South Korean trade. In addition, the roads of Northeast China are too congested; there will be many state borders along the way of this trans-Asian transit route.

On the other hand, the line along the east coast agreed with the DPRK so far looks unpromising. On South Korean territory it leads “to nowhere” and requires huge investments, the return of which is doubtful.

Georgy BULYCHEV, Director of the Center for Studies of Modern Korea, IMEMO RAS, Seoul