| Tehran failed to split the UN Security Council Iranian leaders yesterday for the first time threatened to use oil weapons if the US "takes the wrong step towards Iran." “You are not able to ensure the security of energy flows in this region,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, addressing the Americans. Speaking on the occasion of the 17th anniversary of the death of the leader of the Islamic revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, his successor as the country’s spiritual leader explained that “ These flows will undoubtedly be seriously threatened.”
Ayatollah Khamenei did not explain exactly how Iran would use its “oil weapon.” But it is already clear that its effectiveness is connected not so much with Iran’s role in world oil exports (4th place), but with its ability to block the narrow Strait of Hormuz located in the Iranian underbelly. This is the only exit from the Persian Gulf through which oil tankers can pass. In response, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice yesterday recalled that disruption of oil supplies would be “a very big problem for Iran,” since, according to her, up to 80% of its budget “is generated from oil revenue.”
Another skirmish unfolded against the backdrop of an obvious diplomatic breakthrough in the discussion of the “Iranian problem.” The other day in Vienna, the heads of foreign policy departments of six countries (five permanent members of the UN Security Council - Russia, the USA, Great Britain, France and China, plus a member of the “Eurotroika” Germany) after four hours of negotiations developed a package proposal on Iran. It is based on the carrot and stick principle. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the proposals cover Iran's nuclear program, economic and trade cooperation with Tehran and security guarantees for the Islamic Republic.
For the first time, participants in the discussion of the Iranian nuclear program were able to develop a consolidated solution. Perhaps this is why the country's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in a telephone conversation with UN Secretary General Kofi Annan on Saturday, said that “Iran is ready for negotiations on nuclear issues without preconditions, based on the equality of the parties and respect for each other.”
The EU High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, is expected in Tehran this week. He will tell the Iranians in detail about the package offer. According to Vremya Novostey, supplies of a light water reactor and nuclear fuel for nuclear power plants to Iran have been identified as carrots. The stick, for starters, will be a visa embargo for top Iranian leaders and a freeze on their financial accounts. According to Mr. Lavrov, the package offer to Iran is not an ultimatum with a precise response time, but Tehran should not delay the matter. According to the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, “we are talking about several weeks.”
The restraint of the proposed measures should not be misleading. The very fact of consolidating the position of the “six” on Iran seems key. Obviously, this was facilitated by the approach of the July G8 summit in St. Petersburg. The host of the upcoming summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin, on Friday, at a meeting with representatives of the world's leading news agencies, slightly cooled the ardor of those who like to speculate about Russia's actions in the Iranian issue in the subjunctive mood, they say, will Moscow join the sanctions if they are discussed in the UN Security Council? To this, the Russian president responded with a joke: “If my grandmother had certain sexual characteristics, she would be a grandfather.” Putin continued: “As for sanctions, we think it’s too early to talk about it. We need to have a thorough, in-depth conversation with the Iranian leadership. Only after this will it be possible to talk about the prospects for the development of this process. But in any case, Russia is ready to take an active part in it.” The Russian leader stressed that it is necessary to ensure “access for Iranian partners to modern technologies,” but at the same time it is necessary to “completely eliminate the concerns of the international community about the possible proliferation of nuclear weapons.” In any case, Vladimir Putin spoke out “against the use of force under any circumstances.”
As an Iranian diplomatic source told VN, Tehran is still calmly assessing the situation. After all, there are also advantages - the United States, in principle, no longer excludes negotiations with Iran, and this is some kind of progress in relations. At the same time, the Iranians remind that “the United States should pay attention to Pakistan, India or Israel, which are quietly developing their nuclear technologies.” Petr ISKENDEROV |
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