| Political scientists are inventing an oligarchic conspiracy in the 2008 presidential elections The thought of the possibility of an oligarchic coup has not left some Russian political scientists for almost a year. On Tuesday, the director of the Institute of Political Studies, Sergei Markov, the chairman of the National Strategy Council, Valery Khomyakov, and the vice-president of the Institute of National Strategy, Viktor Militarev, threatened the public with the instability that awaits Russia in 2007-2008. One of the main factors of this instability, according to analysts, has a first and last name - this is the head of Alfa Group, Mikhail Fridman.
Mr. Friedman has had bad luck with political scientists twice already. In September 2005 Markov, Khomyakov and director of the Institute of Regional Problems Maxim Dianov called the government’s task to form a powerful anti-oligarchic coalition by 2008 and prevent a coup. At that time, experts were already haunted by the ghost of Mikhail Fridman; they reproached Alfa Group for harshly criticizing the existing political course. And they even found out that the deputy chairman of the board of directors of Alfa Bank, Oleg Sysuev, joined the anti-Putin “Committee 2008”.
Last Tuesday, Valery Khomyakov complained that his previous assumptions about the inertial election scenario were a fiasco: “The resignation of Prosecutor General Ustinov indicates that a struggle between elite groups has begun.” One of the major players, according to Mr. Khomyakov, will be big business. “Under Vladimir Putin, he was removed from power, which is correct,” the political scientist explained. - As the experience of Boris Berezovsky has shown, representation in power from business in the person of other people is futile. Now the oligarchs will strive for personal integration into power.” And Alfa Group, as the owner of enormous resources, clearly intends to promote its people to the posts of Prime Minister and Speaker of the State Duma.
Sergei Markov worries that the people “could become hostage to the struggle of clans, the Orange Revolution and oligarchic revenge.” In his opinion, in the upcoming federal elections it is important to avoid several risks. In particular, the risk of destabilizing the situation in the country as a result of clan clashes. Mr. Markov also believes that choosing a weak leader will not benefit Russia: “Half of Vladimir Putin’s influence is supporting his style of political leadership, and this style cannot be passed on to a successor.”
The third risk, according to Mr. Markov, is an attempt at oligarchic revenge - if political clans split, then some of them, when fighting for a successor, will begin to appeal to external participants, to business. The political scientist divided the politically capable business into two groups - “Boris Berezovsky plus the remnants of the Menatep group and businessmen who have become loyal and are seeking power.” Moreover, the implementation of the latter scenario is “ideal for the West’s entry into Russian politics.” “The West will simply influence through oligarchic groups; they are sensitive to blackmail, since most of their assets are kept abroad,” Sergei Markov is sure.
According to Viktor Militarev, “our oligarchic capital is reminiscent of the French Bourbons, who learned nothing, forgot nothing and forgave nothing, so an attempt at revenge is possible on the part of some impatient oligarchs.” In his opinion, the party of “impatient oligarchs” is led by Mikhail Fridman and Alfa Group. “The Khodorkovsky case apparently taught not many people,” the expert hinted. — It’s strange to me that Friedman is being considered as a candidate for the post of prime minister. If the opposition to the current government consists of people like Friedman, then, despite my some opposition, I will support this government.” True, the political scientist did not say who exactly, besides Mr. Militarev, is considering Mr. Friedman as a future prime minister.
Last time, Valery Khomyakov promised to prepare a new report on the state of political forces in Russia by the end of 2005. Let us recall that the previous report by members of the National Strategy Council on the dangers of oligarchic capital became an ideological platform for the beginning of the defeat of YUKOS. The new report has not yet been presented, but the idea has not disappeared. Apparently, political scientists working on PR orders want to gain whist on the new high-profile seizure of property from large private businessmen by large government officials. Daria GUSEVA |
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