Translated material
"Orange" deja vu
Tymoshenko and Poroshenko return to power
Today in Kyiv an official announcement will be made about the creation of the “orange” coalition, negotiations about which have been going on for almost three months. Yesterday, the presidential bloc “Our Ukraine”, the Socialist Party (SPU) and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) initialed the long-awaited coalition agreement. A thick document of more than a hundred pages stipulates the mutual obligations of the Troika members when resolving issues of domestic and foreign policy.Each of the political forces is assigned those political posts that correspond to the results of the elections on March 26. BYuT, which takes first place among the “orange”, will receive the post of prime minister. The second-largest “Our Ukraine” will control the seat of the Speaker of the Rada. The third prize-winner, represented by the SPU, will be limited to the post of Deputy Prime Minister. In accordance with the agreement, none of the political forces has the right to veto those candidates that are assigned to the quota of its partners.
At the same time, yesterday it became clear that it was the personnel issue that could soon cause a quarrel and ruin the shaky alliance of the “orange”. “Our Ukraine” approved the draft agreement, subject to the appointment of Petro Poroshenko as Speaker of the Rada. At the same time, BYuT has no other contenders for the post of prime minister, except Yulia Tymoshenko, who gave the bloc its name. This is real political deja vu in Ukrainian. In 2005, both politicians who were in a permanent conflict already shared key positions in government structures: then Tymoshenko was prime minister, and Poroshenko was secretary of the National Security and Defense Council. Their work as a single team ended in a huge scandal, a political crisis in the country and resignation for both. Tymoshenko accused Poroshenko of expanding his powers at her expense, corruption and attempts to informationally isolate President Viktor Yushchenko. The scandal hit the president, whose closest political ally and godfather is Poroshenko, as a ricochet.
The SPU and BYuT did not expect to see Mr. Poroshenko as a speaker candidate. After all, they had previously informally agreed with the presidential bloc that this post would be occupied by the current Prime Minister Yuri Yekhanurov. But “our Ukrainians” are little concerned about the reaction of their partners. “Today, when the key figures of the so-called corruption scandal return to the Ukrainian government, some kind of act of reconciliation and fraternization must take place. Let them sit down, have a glass and talk about the nonsense that happened a year ago,” this is how the head of the political council of the presidential bloc, Roman Bezsmertny, commented on the situation to Ukrainskaya Pravda. One of the “our Ukrainians”, Mikhail Pozhivanov, said that the bet on Poroshenko was made so that the presidential bloc would not fade in comparison with its brighter partners. They say that Prime Minister Tymoshenko can only be opposed by a charismatic speaker capable of maintaining the balance of power.
The leader of the Socialist Party, Alexander Moroz, said yesterday that in order to preserve the “orange” unity, his comrades will support Poroshenko’s candidacy for the post of speaker. “If the devil calls “Our Ukraine”, they will vote for him,” so as not to create delays in organizing the coalition, Moroz promised.
BYuT did not make public its official position on this matter yesterday. Poroshenko’s nomination is “a technology used to disrupt the creation of an “orange” coalition,” Verkhovna Rada deputy from BYuT, Ukrainian political scientist Vladimir Polokhalo told Vremya Novostei. However, for this reason, BYuT is unlikely to leave the “orange” coalition. The bloc's participation is necessary “to save the country from collapse and to preserve political integrity,” Mr. Polokhalo said.
“In fact, Ukraine has returned to the conflict of 2005,” said Vadim Karasev, head of the Ukrainian Institute of Global Strategies, in a commentary to Vremya Novostei. “If there is the same intensity of confrontation between Tymoshenko and Poroshenko, then both the government and the entire coalition structure may collapse.” The complexity of the situation is that after the constitutional reform came into force on January 1, the president lost some of his powers. Viktor Yushchenko risks being “outside the game” in the struggle between the speaker and the prime minister, so “peace in the orange family” may not come, the expert warns. Yesterday, from the mouth of Tymoshenko’s former close ally Mikhail Brodsky, there was even a call to abolish the institution of the presidency altogether.
The “Orange Agreement” left the opposition Party of Regions of ex-Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, which took first place in the parliamentary elections, with nothing. However, in the future, the unstable Tymoshenko-Poroshenko tandem increases the chances of the “regionals” coming to power after the collapse of the coalition in the wake of growing popular disappointment. Now the Party of Regions can safely go into opposition and throw all its strength into the fight against the “orange” on all fronts - from economic policy to NATO membership and the status of the Russian language. Recent protests in Crimea and the parade of “linguistic sovereignties” in eastern Ukraine have shown that the opposition has a chance to seriously influence internal political trends in the country.
Yesterday, “regional” member Evgeny Kushnarev said that his party is ready to play the role of both government and opposition. “The country has no future under one color,” he believes. Therefore, it is important to search for a coalition format “that would unite Ukraine.” The “regionals” will not interfere with the creation of the “orange” coalition, but “they do not believe in its ability to solve the historical problems of Ukraine,” Mr. Kushnarev said.