Condoleezza Rice hopes to leave Moscow

geopolitics

Today, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is leaving for a foreign tour, the final point of which will be Moscow, where a meeting of the foreign ministers of the G8 member countries will take place. On the eve of the meeting finalizing preparations for the G8 summit in St. Petersburg, the Bush administration held a crucial brainstorming session to determine what position the White House would take at the summit. According to Kommersant sources, George Bush's main goal will be to promote the interests of American business in Russia and try to agree on joint actions towards Iran. The US position on issues of democracy, energy security and the situation in the CIS will depend on whether mutual understanding can be found on these problems.

Grand Council in Washington

Condoleezza Rice's tour is surrounded by a veil of secrecy. The State Department does not disclose the location of her stop on the way to Moscow, explaining this for security reasons. However, according to Kommersant's information, before arriving in Moscow, the US Secretary of State will spend two days in Afghanistan or Iraq.

Meanwhile, Condoleezza Rice's stay in the Russian capital will not be limited to her participation in the meeting of the G8 foreign ministers, who will have to sort out the final details of the upcoming summit. Washington attaches great importance to the negotiations that the US Secretary of State will hold with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov and, possibly, with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Such attention from the White House to Condoleezza Rice's mission is quite understandable: the Bush administration believes that, despite the ongoing negotiation process in recent months, less than three weeks before the G8 summit there are still more questions than answers. Evidence that these issues in relations between Moscow and Washington could complicate the course of the G8 summit at the last moment was the statement made last week by Russian Presidential Aide Igor Shuvalov. Speaking about “possible surprises,” he mentioned the current problems in relations between Russia and the United States. “We have not completed the negotiations on the WTO - and suddenly, on the eve of the summit, some trouble will be introduced by one of the parties in the form of home preparation, and this will also be played out in an appropriate political way,” Mr. Shuvalov expressed his fears.

Given the complexity of the moment, last Friday George Bush invited five leading experts on Russia for the first time in a long time. According to Kommersant sources, Secretary of State Rice was also present at this meeting.

Among those invited to the meeting at the White House were the executive director of the US-Russia Business Council Blake Marshall, the director of the Carnegie Foundation Russia program Andrew Kuchins, the leading expert on the Russian economy of the Brookings Institution Clifford Gaddy, the director of the Davis Center on Russia and Eurasia at Harvard University Marshall Goldman and expert influential non-governmental organization "Council on Foreign Relations" Stephen Sestanovich.

The list of those invited to the White House allows us to judge what advice George Bush could turn to experts for. Clifford Gaddy specializes in the Russian oil and gas industry, Marshall Goldman analyzes the Russian financial and macroeconomic situation and is also known as a lobbyist for the interests of American companies in Russia. Andrew Kuchins and Stephen Sestanovich examine the political situation in Russia, and both experts are known for their critical views. Thus, Mr. Sestanovich was one of the authors of the famous report “Russia’s Wrong Course: What the United States Can and Should Do?”, which was presented several months ago by former US vice-presidential candidates Jack Kempf and John Edwards. The report, in particular, proposed suspending Russia's membership in the G8 due to violations of civil liberties.

"This question needs to be asked to the Russians"

However, no matter what critical experts say, the Bush administration does not want to escalate with Moscow, preferring to negotiate with it on the most pressing problems. Apparently, this is precisely what the White House sees as the main goal of Condoleezza Rice's upcoming mission to Moscow. It is noteworthy that, summing up the results of George W. Bush's meeting with experts on Russia, presidential press secretary Tony Snow emphasized that "Russia is at the center of many of the things that we are doing now." In general, Mr. Snow's statements were taken in a balanced and very positive tone. Calling Moscow "a critical partner in Iraq, North Korea, Iran and a number of other areas," Tony Snow described Moscow's approach to Iran and North Korea as "very constructive." Having stated that the United States and Russia do not agree on some issues, he at the same time did not specify what disagreements he was talking about.

However, recent statements by other representatives of the American administration confirm that the Bush administration still has doubts as to whether Moscow is ready not to interfere with the adoption of sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council if Tehran rejects the proposals of six countries submitted to it several weeks ago. On Friday, US Deputy Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia Daniel Fried, at a briefing in Washington, twice avoided answering a Kommersant question about whether he has “one hundred percent confidence that Russia will board the same train with the United States if the UN Security Council discusses possible sanctions against Iran.” ". “This is a question that needs to be asked of the Russians, but I think Russia also understands that it is unlikely to serve its interests if Iran has nuclear weapons,” said Daniel Fried.

Meanwhile, the Iranian issue remains far from the only topic on which Moscow and Washington cannot agree. As a source close to the White House told Kommersant, the issues of Russia's accession to the WTO, the participation of American companies in the development of the Shtokman gas field and the construction of oil and gas transportation networks in Russia also remain unresolved. The fate of the contract for the purchase by the Russian side of 22 American Boeing 787 aircraft also remains uncertain. According to the source, Washington is “highly counting on a positive decision” from Moscow. As for the issue of investments in Russian energy transport networks, Washington hopes that an agreement on this issue can be reached at the meeting of G8 leaders in St. Petersburg.

Energy security is different for everyone

Realizing that negotiations on all of the above issues will not be easy, in the time remaining before the G8 summit, Washington is seeking to strengthen its negotiating position as much as possible. One step in this direction was the joint resolution signed in Vienna last week at the US-EU summit on the global spread of democracy and human rights and the strengthening of peace. Observers in Washington say the eight-page document, which also outlines joint EU-US actions on energy security, means the period of disagreement between Europe and America is behind us. According to one of its authors, Deputy Secretary of State Daniel Fried, the signed resolution is “the most ambitious document that we have ever tried to create together with the European Union.”

Observers in Washington also note that the resolution is directly related to Russia, since it mentions not only “the importance of deepening cooperation,” but also “concerns about recent events in the Russian Federation and the region,” which refers to the post-Soviet space. In this regard, the document notes the need to “work with Russia in areas such as human rights, the presence of a free and independent press, an active civil society, resolution of frozen conflicts and energy security problems.”

The adopted declaration devotes two whole pages to energy security, which Moscow, as chairman of the G8, proposes as one of the key issues on the agenda. At the same time, judging by the text, Western partners interpret energy security somewhat differently than Russia. The declaration speaks of the need to respect the primacy of the market principle in energy trade, as well as to ensure open, transparent and non-discriminatory conditions for investment in the energy field. Commenting on this part of the resolution, a Kommersant source close to the White House expressed the opinion that “Russia’s gas attack on Ukraine significantly contributed to the rapprochement of the positions of the United States and the EU, which led to the signing of this joint document.”

US Deputy Secretary of State Daniel Fried did not hide this fact. Assuring journalists that “the resolution does not mean the creation of an alliance against Russia,” Mr. Fried noted that energy is already a difficult matter to aggravate the situation with political risks, as was the case in January of this year between Russia and Ukraine.

DMITRY Kommersant-SIDOROV, Washington; SERGEY Kommersant-Strokan

With a feeling of accomplishment