Translated material
Missed Opportunity Summit
This dialogue needs intensification today more than ever. The world's current system of ensuring international energy security, created in the 1970s to protect Western countries from the Arab oil embargo, is obviously outdated and inadequate to today's realities. Imbalances in the global energy market have worsened -- three-quarters of the world's oil reserves and two-thirds of its gas reserves are concentrated in a few countries in the Middle East, Russia and Venezuela, whose contribution to global GDP is just over 5%, while countries producing more than 60% of global GDP (USA, European Union, countries of the Asia-Pacific region) control less than 10% of the world's hydrocarbon reserves. Although the world has enough oil and gas resources for at least another 40-50 years, over time the dependence of these countries on energy imports will only increase.
This situation in itself is quite explosive and requires coordinated international measures designed to restore confidence in international energy markets in stable and reliable energy supplies. A system of international guarantees is needed that prices in markets will be balanced, that investments in the development of resources necessary for humanity will be carried out, and that states rich in resources will not usurp them and try to exert forceful pressure on states that do not have resources in order to strengthen their geopolitical positions in the world. If this kind of “architecture” of the international energy security system is not created today, in the future humanity will face inevitable conflicts over access to energy resources, threatening primarily the possessing countries.
However, the threat that the summit could turn into an intellectual failure is already obvious. Russia simply squandered the six months that are traditionally allotted to the future presiding country to prepare proposals for the summit agenda. Apart from the general words and statements of President Putin that Russia wants to become a “trend setter” in the global energy sector, the G8 states have not seen specific proposals from Russia on real problems of energy security - access to resources, deepening the integration of countries - producers and consumers of energy, transparency of data on oil and gas reserves, ensuring the stability of transportation and transit of energy resources. Instead, the leaders of the G8 countries are invited, in essence, to sing a collective toast to hydrocarbon-rich Russia and hope that Russia will be a reliable energy supplier in the future, without receiving any clear obligations in return.
Thus, a real meaningful discussion on energy security issues will no longer be possible at the summit. Its preparation requires time, which is hopelessly lost.
The Russian authorities should have no illusions about how this situation is perceived in the West. Now they prefer not to argue with us, because it is unproductive. However, we can forget about strengthening Russia’s international image. The lack of serious substantive ideas for the summit is, of course, a major foreign policy failure of the Russian authorities.
The recent gas conflict between Russia and Ukraine was not the best background for discussing energy security issues within the G8, the echoes of which will hurt our country’s reputation as a reliable supplier of energy resources to world markets for a long time to come. Without delving into the essence of the Russian-Ukrainian dispute, it is worth noting that a significant detail of it was the complete lack of attention of Russia and Gazprom to the mechanisms for ensuring uninterrupted gas supplies to Europe at the time of the cessation of its supply to Ukraine. Moreover, the Europeans were essentially not properly warned about possible interruptions in gas supplies - Russian emissaries did not go to Europe before the New Year to explain the situation to European partners and prepare possible joint measures to respond to the Ukrainian crisis. No mechanisms were proposed to hedge the risks of European consumers in the event of a gas supply cutoff to Ukraine. They simply turned off the gas, knowing about possible interruptions in the gas supply to our European partners, and found it necessary only in television statements to blame for this on the Ukrainian side.
Such behavior, of course, does not characterize Russia as a reliable energy partner of the world community. Russia will now have to “wash off” the consequences of this kind of action for a long time.
And in general, the sharp deterioration of the situation in the Russian energy sector in recent years as a result of government intervention does not contribute to strengthening our image as a global energy power. Rather, we are beginning to look like a “country of missed opportunities” like Mexico, where government control, inefficiency and corruption make it impossible to effectively realize the national energy potential. We have a similar situation. The pace of oil and gas production slowed sharply in 2005, falling to 1-2%. What lies ahead of Russia is the transition to the development of new, not yet developed oil and gas provinces, but the Russian financial system is not ready to allocate “long-term” money for such projects, state-owned oil and gas companies are burdened with huge debts resulting from dubious multi-billion dollar transactions, and the admission of foreign investors to The Russian authorities plan to limit the development of new fields. Vicious circle.
It is time for the Russian authorities to realize that energy security is not a means of international PR and geopolitics, but a serious global problem, the solution of which can only be achieved through the joint efforts of the international community. So far, one thing is clear: hopes that the G8 summit will help resolve this issue are not justified.