TRAFFIC TRAFFIC IN MOSCOW CAR SHOWROOMS

BEHIND THE WHEEL

In the near future, a foreign car in Russia may become not a luxury, but an object of desire. By the beginning of August, when the streets of the capital are seasonally full of advertisements for sales, car dealerships are doing about the same thing as in Detsky Mir on New Year's Eve....

In the near future, a foreign car in Russia may become not a luxury, but an object of desire. By the beginning of August, when the streets of the capital are seasonally full of advertisements for sales, car dealerships are doing about the same thing as in Detsky Mir on New Year's Eve. Moreover, most of the cars produced in 2006 have already been sold. People come to line up. Her tail is not visible, and it grows.

The queue is the first sign of a shortage. And the deficit, as is known from recent history, is treated by liberalization (read - rapid growth) of prices. While car dealers do not talk about it, however, car dealership employees whisper in the ear of friends that they are preparing to rewrite price tags. It is not yet possible to predict the specific parameters of the rise in prices, but the fact that it will be is a fact.

Experts see a number of reasons for what in the language of economists is called the imbalance of supply and demand. Let's start with demand. Firstly, there is more and more money in the hands of the population (more precisely, that part of it that, in principle, is able to buy cars worth $10,000 or more) . Second, the consumer credit boom.

According to Vitaly SEDNEV, Leading Analyst at ACC Salvador D., “Banks today offer loans for the purchase of foreign cars on very favorable terms, including a low interest rate and a minimum of problems with registration. In addition, many people are willing to invest in cars and personal, non-borrowed funds. The fact is that the country is experiencing a crisis of home savings. Keeping money in stockings has become absolutely unprofitable due to inflation and exchange rate fluctuations, and bank deposits do not always guarantee even the safety of invested funds.

In general, you will not surprise anyone with the abundance of money now. The middle class, like the economy as a whole, is indirectly tied to oil: the richer the commodity exporters, the richer their affiliated banks, insurance and construction companies, law firms, media, etc. The question is: why are people in a hurry to invest in cars, and not in something else?

Previously, the list of expensive acquisitions in the first place was an apartment. But starting from this year, the capital market, and not only, has established prices that can safely be called prohibitive. That is, a person with a salary even twice the average (not in Russia - in Moscow) will never be able to buy an apartment, even if you put it off all your life. Getting a mortgage loan is still not easy. Only the first installment for the cheapest "odnushka" significantly exceeds the cost of a brand new economy class foreign car. A two-room apartment on the outskirts is equivalent in cost to two or three representative jeeps of such a level that it assumes that its owner does not live in Russia, but on Rublyovka. In a word, a complete imbalance.

Previously, money that could not be spent was invested in their own business in order to earn more and buy what the soul so desires. However, now small business has finally moved into the category of high-risk areas of activity. This year alone, legislative changes have pretty much battered, if not completely cleaned out, the two most profitable segments: slot machines and alcohol retail. We will not talk now about whether this is good or bad, just a fact. And this is not to mention the eternal, but permanently aggravated problems with the tax authorities, the sanitary and epidemiological station and other officials. We can say that private medium and small business has become unprofitable and finally ceased to be private property in the sense of property rights. There is no car yet. They are taken.

And hardly for the purpose of investment. According to experts, even a high-quality foreign car loses 15-20% of its value every year. The figures are, in principle, comparable to the real rate of inflation. The main plus is that, unlike a bank account or cash, you can also drive a car, demonstrating to everyone that everything is in order with your money. In this case, some financial losses are at least compensated by moral and image bonuses.

But we completely forgot about the offer. Maybe foreign cars just stopped being delivered to Russia? For example, in connection with any customs innovations? That's why there is a shortage. Fortunately, no. According to representatives of a large customs broker, the excitement in the market is definitely not connected in any way "with the dynamics of customs legislation."

A more realistic version of what happened after a conversation with a top manager of a major car dealership, who asked not to be named. It turns out that over the past few months, manufacturing companies have carried out a kind of "cleansing" in the ranks of their dealers, breaking off relations with anyone who caused any criticism. As a result, a large number of car dealerships closed in the Moscow region, and potential buyers, of course, smoothly flowed into the remaining ones, which immediately expanded the staff and raised salaries. All cars brought by suppliers have already been bought. Moreover, a relatively new kind of business has flourished, such as selling a place in a queue. Particularly impatient buyers who do not want to wait for nine months are ready to pay for the right to reduce the standing time in line to three or four weeks, an amount equivalent to 10% of the cost of a car. A standard queue-place costs about one and a half to two thousand USD.

It is clear that such a spontaneous equation of supply and demand will not last long. In the short term, car dealerships will raise prices, and the lines will disappear by themselves. The foreign car will again become a luxury.

In general, it can be said that the investment preferences of the Russian population as a whole are not much different from the habits of their fellow citizens from the Forbes list. Both those and others invest free funds in the acquisition of luxury goods, and not in the development of the domestic economy. That does not at all indicate the health of the economy itself.

Expert comments

Irina ZELENKOVA, Deputy General Director of FinExpertiza LLC:

- The trick is that the purchase of a high-quality European car from the point of view of the psychological aspects of consumption of representatives of our young (in terms of the duration of existence) middle class combines several obvious benefits at once.

Firstly, such a choice is quite pragmatic in a purely functional sense: a reliable, solid “vehicle” is acquired that can be used for its intended purpose for a long time, working without failures and providing quite a decent level of comfort.

Secondly, in this way one's own social status is certified: a solid "German" in the garage will still be more convincing evidence of the respectability of its owner than a brand new "Japanese". Tellingly, this is no longer a way to “show off”, as it was in a very recent time, it’s just a healthy, calm “investment” in self-identity, increasingly correlating with the well-known phrase “the modest charm of the bourgeoisie”.

Finally, quite pragmatically: a good European car, having "worked out" these two benefits faithfully, is still selling quite a few years later - for the benefit of its old owner's wallet.

Dina KRYLOVA, Head of the Center for Expertise of Entrepreneurial Problems, OPORA Russia:

- Probably, you can see a certain logic in the fact that people do not invest in small businesses, but, for example, in foreign cars. The risks in small business are now very high, the competition too. The administrative and corruption pressure is huge, and there are not very many chances to succeed.

In the mid-90s, people still believed that it was possible to succeed in our country, there were more people who wanted to start their own business. Now, also because the offer in almost all segments exceeds the demand, it is very, very difficult to break through and succeed in a small business. Many of those who at one time would like to go into business still choose to work for hire and do not risk their own capital, but spend their savings on consumption.

Undoubtedly, there is a deterioration in the working conditions of small enterprises. This is due to the large fees that are levied under various pretexts. This is both a corrupt nature of extortions, and executed quite legally.

It would seem that taxes do not increase, they even decrease in recent years. A simplified taxation system has been introduced, the unified social tax has been somewhat reduced, income tax has been reduced to 24% - just start a business. But it's not about taxes. A large number of exemptions and costs are associated with over-regulation and corruption. This creates an alternative system of taxation - only not with taxes, but with extortions. There is taxation, and there is taxation. Taken together, they paint a very bleak picture.

Recorded by Denis DAVYDOV, Anna OVYAN