RUBLE, STOP FUCKING!

ECONOMY

Every pleasure has negative consequences. So, sex sometimes leads to an unplanned pregnancy, and the use of strong drinks - to a hangover. The pleasure of making windfall profits from oil exports leads to inflation and strengthening ...

Every pleasure has negative consequences. So, sex sometimes leads to an unplanned pregnancy, and the use of strong drinks - to a hangover. The pleasure of getting windfall profits from oil exports leads to inflation and the strengthening of the national currency. The last trouble drags along with it a whole bouquet in the form of an increase in imports and a decrease in the competitiveness of a local producer. All this inevitable evil has been observed in Russia for the last five years.

However, last week President Vladimir Putin tried to change our stereotypes about economic reality and economic science. At a meeting with Alexei Kudrin, he demanded that the minister stop strengthening the ruble and reduce the growth rate of imports. At the same time, no one removed the task of fighting inflation, and there can be no talk of a reasonable reduction in government spending, which would reduce the relevance of these problems many times over, in the pre-election year.

It must be assumed that Kudrin felt himself in the position of a student who is asked to solve a problem about a pool into which water is poured through a thick pipe and flows out through a thin one. It is required to block a thin pipe and at the same time make sure that the pool does not overflow.

But the teacher differs from the student in that he does not solve problems, but dictates conditions. The President does not need to explain that it is impossible to fight inflation and prevent the strengthening of the ruble at the same time. Just because it's not his problem. This is the problem of those who solve the tasks. In our case, Kudrin.

Although in fact it is a problem of the Russian economy. In the sense that it is not clear who controls it. The President, according to the Constitution, determines the main directions of foreign and domestic policy. The main directions, not tactical decisions, which, of course, include the balancing of macroeconomic indicators. The prime minister is responsible for the economy as a whole. But Mikhail Fradkov, as an experienced apparatchik during his premiership, was not noticed, not only in upholding, but in public announcement of his own position on fundamental issues. German Gref, who lost a significant part of his powers in recent armchair battles, is more busy joining the WTO and other chicken wars. Remains Kudrin.

But the trouble is that the powers of the Minister of Finance do not allow pursuing an independent policy. I am sure that if Kudrin had been in the prime minister's place with the right to make independent decisions, we would now have a completely different budget, modest in terms of expenses, and three percent inflation. (True, in combination with a half-dead industry, but that's another topic.)

With the strengthening of the ruble, it generally came out, sorry, neponyatka. Not more than a year ago, many statesmen uttered compliments with emotion and even composed odes to the “strong ruble”. The President caressed him in his message. And now it turned out that the strengthening of the ruble is almost wrecking.

However, the President does not hide who opened his eyes to this truth. "Representatives of large companies with whom he is in contact." Several commodity oligarchs, plus the heads of state-owned commodity companies, who suffer losses from a strong ruble, have access to the first person, as they drive gas and oil abroad for a strong dollar. Prior to the equidistance of the oligarchs, this was called lobbying. Now this is probably called protecting the interests of domestic business. From Kudrin, or what? Let's hang the question for the future, just note: the president made it clear whose interests are closer to him, and then let the whole economy turn into an oxymoron.

However, we are also lucky that there is a reasonable and cautious person in the post of Minister of Finance. Imagine a martinet in his place, ready to carry out the orders of the president at any cost. Including orders are mutually exclusive.

Theoretically, they can be done. For example, the problem of excess money in the economy is easily solved by stimulating the outflow of capital from the country. Technically, two or three more "YUKOS cases" can be organized for this. Capital will run with terrible force - there will be no trace of inflation left.

The same can be done more kindly, as with Abramovich. That is, to buy out private companies on a voluntary-compulsory basis with public money. And inflation in the football transfer market is no longer our problem.

The president himself proposed a way to combat the influx of imports. Commenting on the work of customs officers, the head of state noted: “They are great, of course, that they seize everything that is needed.” So after all, you can withdraw more than that. At least everything. And then sell through their stores at bargain prices. Goskomstat to the delight.

Finally, it's time to introduce a state monopoly on the trade in alcohol, tobacco, gasoline and meat. These are the most harmful goods in terms of inflation. And so the price tags can be drawn taking into account the planned indicators of inflation.

With a rich imagination of such ways, you can come up with a dozen more. The problem is that some of them, albeit phantasmagoric, can still be implemented in practice in a latent manner. For the president - for joy, for Kudrin-Gref - for salvation, and for the economy - for trouble.