Translated material
Demand without supply
There are no democrats in Russia yet who can come to power
There is just over a year left before the next elections to the State Duma. Non-parliamentary parties are already declaring their political ambitions. All of them hope to enter parliament, and some, in the future, to win a constitutional majority. The Union of Right Forces, in particular, promises that the “united democratic party” led by Nikita Belykh will achieve the presidency. True, with a caveat - in 2016. The Vremya Novostey newspaper asked experts to assess the prospects of the liberal idea and right-wing parties in the near political future of Russia.Deputy head of the Center for Political Technologies Boris Makarenko believes that “in order to become a constitutional majority, it would be a good idea for the Union of Right Forces to first get into the Duma.” Moreover, in his opinion, today’s liberals still have a chance, but time is rapidly running out: “It is obvious that the liberals will not enter the Duma in two columns. What is needed is either a unification, or something that will bring all liberal voters under the banner of one party. That is, either a merger or an acquisition.”
According to the expert, sociological surveys show that the ratings of the Union of Right Forces and Yabloko fluctuate between two percent, and, according to different versions, up to 30% of citizens allow voting for a liberal party. “This, of course, does not mean that the potential of the liberal party in Russia is 30%, but it is definitely higher than 7%.
Therefore, the problem is not with the demand for liberal parties, but with the supply. There are several tasteless carbonated drinks on the market; instead of them we need one Coca-Cola,” says Mr. Makarenko. But only natural optimism, according to the analyst, does not give him the opportunity to put an end to the current liberal parties right now.
Co-chairman of the National Strategy Council Joseph Diskin unoptimistically believes that right-wing parties, which have been planning to merge into one for quite some time, will face marginalization and disappearance: “And then parties with liberal values, but at the same time democratic ones, should appear.” The liberal idea, according to the political scientist, has a future in Russia if it is combined with democratic and patriotic values. “Moreover, this model cannot be applied to existing political parties,” says Mr. Diskin. - The entire current political system grew out of the overcoat of the Soviet intelligentsia, which was not a social stratum, but a religious movement. Some parts of the system, I hope, will evolve according to the demands of life and voters, who are still willing to put up with low ideological equipment.”
Boris Makarenko is confident that the liberal idea has potential in Russia. In his opinion, the middle class is being formed based on the newly emerging realities of Russian life: “As the middle class rises and feels the need to protect its real rights, there will be a demand for a liberal idea. Question: how long will it take for this request to be realized and take shape as a political force? And by the time the request is formed, there may be nothing left from the current parties.”
Joseph Diskin has no doubt that the Democrats will become the ruling party after a certain number of election cycles. But the Union of Right Forces, in his opinion, is not a democratic party: “The Union of Right Forces and the current leadership of United Russia are united by the fact that they promote authoritarian modernization. And parties should appear that focus on democratic modernization and the opinion of the majority.”