Energy depopulation

The President did not find a “clear and understandable” program for the development of the electric power industry

Vladimir Putin was indignant at yesterday's meeting on electricity issues - the third this year. Exactly eight months ago, he instructed the government and interested structures to develop an industry strategy and present it in March, but, as the head of state said yesterday, “there is still no clear and understandable program for the development of the electric power industry, taking into account the dynamics of economic growth, increasing the efficiency of production and consumption energy, as I understand it, the draft general layout of facilities is also missing.”

At the same time, the president pointed out what the problems are in the area for which Anatoly Chubais is responsible. Mr. Chubais has been accused of everything over the past 15 years, but it just so happens that the president has joined the most radical critics. He, of course, did not say that the chief power engineer was responsible for the “genocide of the Russian people,” but said: “We know that depopulation continues in many regions, and, probably, primarily due to inflated tariffs for energy and transportation and other problems that are ultimately also related to energy.” Out of despair, Vladimir Putin again demanded “as soon as possible” to develop the documents necessary for the development of the industry and submit them to him for approval.

But RAO UES of Russia, as responsible for the electric power industry, this year developed both the dynamics of growth in energy consumption and the general layout of energy facilities and submitted these documents to the government. Vladimir Putin's words yesterday mean that the president was apparently not satisfied with this job. The reason, obviously, as before, lies in the fact that the top managers of the energy holding have relied on gas as fuel for new power plants. “You and I cannot – and this is clear to everyone present here – to base the entire economy of the country on one energy carrier – natural gas. This is unacceptable even from the point of view of national security,” said Vladimir Putin. “Unfortunately, before “We still don’t have a clear and precise idea of ​​what the optimal balance of energy resources—primary energy resources—should be.”

Over the course of three hours, the meeting participants tried to form a “clear and concise view.” Mikhail Fradkov, head of the presidential administration Sergei Sobyanin, First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, presidential aide Igor Shuvalov, ministers of industry and energy Viktor Khristenko, economic development German Gref, finance Alexey Kudrin, heads of Rosatom Sergei Kiriyenko and the Federal Antimonopoly Service arrived in Novo-Ogarevo yesterday Igor Artemyev, head of the presidential expert department Arkady Dvorkovich, presidential adviser Igor Shuvalov and head of RAO UES Anatoly Chubais. Following the meeting, as reported by Minister of Industry and Energy Viktor Khristenko, Vladimir Putin “instructed the government to prepare, within two weeks, long-term assessments of the state of the fuel balance, the presence of all energy components in it - not only gas, but also coal, nuclear energy, hydrogeneration." “The President paid special attention not only to the state of the energy complex, but to the state of the entire fuel balance and the prospects for its development in the country,” he explained.

One of the meeting participants, in a conversation with a Vremya Novostei correspondent, said that the results of the event described by Mr. Khristenko, in fact, reflect the maximum of the decisions made. At the same time, he found it difficult to say what would happen after two weeks and how the “prospective estimates” would be used in practice. The newspaper's interlocutor added that from the course of the discussion it can be concluded that in general terms the investment intentions of RAO UES of Russia and Rosatom were approved - everyone agreed that it was necessary to build power units, and in large quantities.

It was not possible to discuss the most pressing problem - the supply of gas to power plants. The head of Gazprom, Alexey Miller, was absent from Novo-Ogarevo. So, apparently, the prospects for reform of the electric power industry, which is inextricably linked both with the situation on the gas market and specifically with Gazprom, are again shrouded in fog. The industry development strategy, it seems, will now be developed either next year or after the 2008 presidential elections. And this will probably have to be done not by RAO, but by Gazprom and its Kremlin curators, led by Dmitry Medvedev, who is also the head of the board of directors of the gas concern and has recently been in charge of the fuel and energy complex in the government. The speech of Mikhail Fradkov, whom Vladimir Putin asked to add something to his opening remarks, is indicative: “Everything is correct, Vladimir Vladimirovich. The topic is perhaps the most pressing; it determines both today and tomorrow, and our place as an energy power. It is necessary to correctly determine the balance, there must be a clear pricing policy. We are involved in pipelines, gas pipelines, and generation, but the time has come when it is necessary to develop a unified picture for the long term. The questions are very relevant.”

Vladimir Putin's close attention to the electric power industry was attracted by prolonged severe frosts throughout the country, which even led to restrictions in energy supply in January. On February 10, the first meeting on the development of the electric power industry was held in Novo-Ogarevo - with almost the same composition as yesterday, also without Alexey Miller. At it, Anatoly Chubais demanded that the state approve his scheme for attracting investment into the industry - “eroding” the share of RAO UES in large energy companies through an additional issue of shares in favor of strategic investors. Funds from this operation were to be used for the construction of new facilities and the modernization of existing ones. However, Vladimir Putin did not agree with this formulation of the issue. According to sources in the Kremlin, he first demanded to present a strategy for the development of the electric power industry and other documents indicating the vector of development and a clear, well-developed mechanism for spending investments. Mr. Khristenko, who was tasked with voicing the official outcome of the discussion, said: “The President has set a task: under no circumstances should we allow a shortage of electric power capacity to arise for the Russian economy. First of all, we are talking about expanding the methods of attracting private investment in the electric power industry... One of the old problems is the problem of cross-subsidization, which has also been quite actively discussed today. The President has clearly formulated the task: when resolving this issue, under no circumstances should the burden be shifted onto the shoulders of the population. And, of course, all decisions that will be proposed in this regard will be based only on this.”

In early June, Vladimir Putin again held a meeting on the electricity sector, and then it turned out that over the past few months, by and large, no one had done anything. Mr Chubais again proposed discussing the topic of investment, but Gazprom head Alexei Miller, who was present, criticized these plans as they did not take into account the problems associated with growing gas consumption. Gazprom obviously does not intend to solve these difficulties alone, while energy companies will extract almost super-profits from this gas. Therefore, at the meeting it was decided to instruct the government to find a way to jointly solve the gas problem.

Several more months passed, but the cart, in fact, is still there. “Despite the rather intense work to solve the main task, one of the main tasks - ensuring approximately seven percent annual economic growth and doubling GDP in ten years - today it becomes obvious to us that the natural limiter in solving this problem is the lack of energy capacity, the deficit that we are already facing now,” Vladimir Putin said in his opening remarks to yesterday’s meeting. -- Consumption growth on average over the past five years has increased by 2%, and over the last nine months of this year, according to the data I have, there has been a jump of 4.8%. And in some regions the growth in electricity consumption per year is already 8-10%. The reduction in reserve capacity in some regions to a level that does not allow the repair and modernization of outdated generation is exacerbating the problem.”

The problems of the Russian electric power industry begin primarily in Moscow. Yesterday, Mosenergo General Director Anatoly Kopsov once again stated that at a temperature of minus 28 degrees in the coming winter, he expects an energy capacity deficit of about 600 MW (with a load of over 16 thousand MW). There is only one reason - in the last 15 years there has been almost no construction of power plants in the industry. That is why now all Russian energy companies are trying to draw up investment programs for the near future and begin their implementation. However, in reality, not everyone succeeds.

Construction in the capital's energy system has unfolded on a fairly large scale. It is being carried out with its own funds, as well as with loans raised, including from Gazprombank, the largest shareholder of Mosenergo after RAO. It is Gazprom's structures that are in charge of providing fuel to new power plants, and they are the ones who are going to become the controlling shareholder of this energy company by purchasing an additional share issue for $2.4 billion at the beginning of next year. An additional share issue is already being prepared, however, in favor of an unnamed strategic investor. To name it, all that remains is to overcome the resistance of the Ministry of Economic Development (primarily German Gref), which first wants to achieve an understanding of how Gazprom will invest in the electric power industry. This issue is expected to be discussed in a week at a meeting of the board of directors of RAO UES of Russia. Although, obviously, such a discussion should be preceded by a change in Mr. Gref’s position. But a meeting of the board of directors of the gas concern on this topic, according to Vremya Novostei, is not planned.

Nevertheless, as Mr. Kopsov says, Mosenergo, together with RAO and the “strategic investor,” has already discussed projects to expand the company beyond the Moscow region. The question is as follows. Gazprom’s tasks include, if not reducing, then at least increasing the share of gas in the energy balance of the electric power industry. However, it is impossible to build coal-fired power plants in Moscow for environmental reasons. There are practically no sites left in the Moscow region. And there are many of them in neighboring regions, says Mr. Kopsov. “And most importantly, we think that the neighboring regions will treat this quite normally, because this is the arrival of a powerful investor on their territory - this means taxes and the use of labor.” In particular, there are already sites in the Vladimir region, in the Shchekinsky district of the Tula region. In general, Mr. Kopsov sees Mosenergo as “a powerful core in the energy sector of the Central region of Russia”: in his opinion, “the integration of Mosenergo will be carried out on the basis of the generating capacities of the adjacent regions.” “If our strategic investor expresses a desire, we will work on this issue,” he concluded.

At the same time, power engineers working in neighboring regions, according to Mr. Kopsov, will not conflict with the capital company. “This is competition,” he told Vremya Novostey. — Look, there is the Shaturskaya State District Power Plant, part of OGK-4. We are building a power plant with a capacity of 4 thousand MW almost 24 km from it. We will find an investor. And why should we think that it is impossible to connect to this energy node, to a favorable network environment?” But when asked by the newspaper whether Gazprom would become a strategic investor in generating companies in neighboring regions, Mr. Kopsov answered briefly: “What’s bad about that?” So it is quite possible to expect that in the medium term Gazprom will try to create a large energy generating company in the Center of Russia.

Nikolay GORELOV, Andrey DENISOV