“Problems will threaten”

Alan Greenspan pointed out to Russian authorities the risks in the financial system

One of the world's leading economists, former head of the American Federal Reserve System Alan Greenspan, yesterday in New York at the Renaissance of Capital conference, commented on the financial situation in our country. His assessments turned out to be quite restrained and not at all optimistic. In his opinion, the Russian economy is hindered from developing primarily by the high dependence of business on the government, which hinders competition.

“In Russia there will be a large aluminum company, there will be an even larger oil company (“Russian Aluminum”, created on the basis of RUSAL and SUAL, and “Rosneft”, which is going to increase the assets of YUKOS. - Ed. ), - Interfax quotes Mr. Greenspan - But Russian competitiveness will not be in the size of companies, but in the fact that they lie outside the focus of the political system, since political support reduces competitiveness. Everyone knows that the artificial creation of such national champions. “It’s bad, they don’t feel the competition.”

In addition, Mr. Greenspan does not share the view of the Russian authorities, who expect convertibility of the ruble - first of all, with the complete liberalization of capital movements. In his opinion, “reserve currencies must be very liquid, which cannot be said about the ruble and many other currencies.” “If Russia still wants wider distribution of the ruble in the global economy, then it needs to improve the financial infrastructure. The American dollar is popular even in the most difficult periods of the economy because property rights have been protected here for more than 200 years, both their own and foreign ones,” - he said. The main danger for the Russian financial system, according to Mr. Greenspan, is the “Dutch disease”: “Russia is in a similar situation to Holland in the 60s, when an undiversified economy could not absorb sharply increased income. The standard solution to this problem, and Russia took advantage of it - when the Central Bank buys currency in an increased volume. The problem is that the Russian Central Bank, due to the lack of financial infrastructure, cannot, while buying currency, issue ruble financial instruments in a sufficient volume, thus sterilizing the monetary base." A stabilization fund helps fight inflationary pressure, the creation of which an American banker called a “successful decision”: “Funds (which the economy cannot “digest” - Ed. ) generally bypass the banking system. However, such a large volume of funds should be isolated from the political influence, otherwise this money will still end up in the economy."

At the same time, Mr. Greenspan called on Russia to allow branches of foreign banks into its market. "The Russian banking system consists of several large banks and several that are not actually banks, since they are not financial intermediaries. It would still be correct to allow foreign banks to operate in Russia, since they will in any case be subject to Russian laws ", he thinks.

“All these problems will threaten the Russian financial system over the coming years, so I wish Mr. Kudrin (Finance Minister Alexei Kudirin - Ed. ) successful work," concluded Mr. Greenspan.

Ivan GORDEEV