Turkey's accession to the European Union would open a new era in European history

TOPIC OF THE DAY Türkiye

Pope Benedict XVI, of course, did not accidentally choose Turkey for his first visit to a Muslim country. In their relations, Europe and Türkiye today stand at a strategic and, without any exaggeration, historical fork in the road. Arriving in Turkey, the pope hastened to declare that he supports the country's accession to the European Union, but in practice, negotiations between Ankara and Brussels are on the verge of breakdown. On Monday, the parties failed to make progress on the issue of the Turkish embargo against Greek Cyprus, which has already been accepted into the EU. Turkey has been given a week to fulfill European conditions, but Finland, which chairs the EU, no longer hopes for success, and France and Austria are demanding that they take an even tougher position towards Turkey.

In fact, Turkey's accession to the EU would seem extremely logical from an economic point of view. Turkey and Europe are already quite strongly integrated today: a customs union was created between them ten years ago (by the way, there was no such union with any of the Eastern European countries that had already joined the EU); The European Union accounts for about half of Turkey's imports and exports. The EU also needs Turkey: in the future, it will be difficult for Europe to maintain the competitiveness of its economy without it. As a recent report from the World Economic Forum states, Turkey could become a high-yield but secure investment arena for European companies, as well as a very important domestic source of labor. Turkey's economy is growing at 7% per year, inflation has dropped to 8%, foreign direct investment has increased to €10 billion per year. If these successes can be given institutional stability by joining the EU, Turkey could become an important growth center for the European economy, experts at the London-based Center for European Reform believe.

Recently, more and more often they are talking in Europe about Turkey’s strategic role for the EU, primarily in the field of energy. Indeed, it is Turkey that could become for Europe a bridge to the Middle East and Central Asia with their hydrocarbon reserves, experts from the World Economic Forum write. Having received such a bridge, Brussels could move closer to one of its most important goals - diversification of energy supplies. Conversely, rejected by Europe, Turkey may agree to a closer alliance with Russia, which will distance the EU from this strategic goal. Nevertheless, Turkey's entry into the European Union faces serious not only political but also psychological obstacles. According to Eurobarometer, 52% of EU citizens believe that Turkey's entry into the union will only benefit the Turks themselves, and 48% believe that Turkey should not be accepted, even if it fulfills all the conditions set. On the other hand, according to Pew Global Attitudes, only 18% of Turks now have a favorable view of a European country like France. Only 16% of Turkish citizens generally have a favorable attitude towards Christians (back in 2004 the figure was 31%). And about two-thirds consider Westerners to be cruel, selfish and bigoted. But the fact that the possibility of Turkey joining the EU is still being discussed at a practical level is a historical event. Suffice it to remember that for several centuries the Ottoman Empire laid claim to the role of the leading power on the continent. The last time its troops besieged Vienna was in 1683, and the “Turkish threat” itself and the idea of the “return of Constantinople” were factors in the formation of a pan-European identity. And today for Europe, a step across the Bosphorus will mean structural changes in demography, economy, and culture. If Turkey joins the EU, Turkey, with its 73 million inhabitants, will become the second largest country in Europe after Germany (and possibly the first) and an alternative center of influence. It is significant that Turkey clearly intends to join the EU on fundamentally different terms than the states of Eastern or even Central Europe did. The countries of the former socialist camp unconditionally accepted both the role of junior partners in the union and any demands made. Turkey's position on issues such as the status of Cyprus or recognition of the Armenian genocide at the end of the First World War demonstrates that Turkey does not intend to “dissolve” in the pan-European political mainstream.

Therefore, this is not just about accepting a new member, but about the historical choice of both the European and Turkish elites. But the most important thing is that the very essence of the EU will change: it is one thing to bring small countries without geopolitical ambitions up to the “European level”, quite another thing to learn to coexist with another, completely independent civilization. If Turkey and the European Union manage to find a common language, our current ideas about what is possible in the field of international and specifically Eurasian integration will seriously change.

Return of Constantinople