Translated material
Free fall
By the end of the year, the official dollar exchange rate may fall below 26 rubles
Investor expectations regarding interest rate hikes in Europe increased the already high demand for the euro. This is one of the main reasons for the fall of the dollar against the European currency. Yesterday, the dollar exchange rate against the euro fell by 0.5% and crossed the psychologically important level of $1.32 per euro. In Russia, it officially fell in price by 1 kopeck, or 0.03% - from 26.31 to 26.30 rubles. However, at exchange offices the purchase rate has already crossed the level of 26 rubles. per dollar and amounted to 25.3--25.9 rubles. for a dollar. Market participants are very pessimistic about the future of the dollar on world markets. They do not exclude the possibility that the American currency will fall to the level of 1.35 dollars per euro by the end of the year, and the official exchange rate in Russia will fall below 26 rubles.The sharp investor demand for the euro continues for the second week. Some market participants considered it speculative, but now analysts and traders believe that at least until the end of this year the euro will continue to rise in price. There are many reasons for this. The latest macroeconomic indicators again demonstrated an increase in GDP rates in Europe and inflation. This means that the European Central Bank may tighten monetary policy and raise the discount rate. This is exactly the decision the market is waiting for following the results of the regulator’s meeting on December 7. “Most likely the rate will be raised, at least the euro is growing precisely on these expectations,” says Renaissance Capital analyst Alexey Moiseev. In contrast to European economic growth, US GDP is growing very slowly. This indicates that the American financial authorities will not only not raise rates, but, on the contrary, may weaken their monetary policy to stimulate economic growth. However, in a recent report by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, market participants did not see a signal that rates would be reduced. “In the short term, the market does not expect decisive action from the Fed, but it is quite possible that the market regulator will reconsider its position next year,” Mr. Moiseev believes.
Much will depend on what the policies of European and American financial authorities will be next year. At the very least, investors would like to receive more or less clear information from the ECB management on December 7th. The most important question is whether the regulator will continue its policy of raising rates next year. “The behavior of investors will largely depend on this,” says Mr. Moiseev. - However, by the end of the year the euro will definitely grow; the exchange rate may increase to 1.35 euros per dollar. If quotes are even higher, this means that the dollar in Russia may fall below 26 rubles.”
Due to a significant drop in the dollar exchange rate, the Lithuanian government may receive 74.7 million litas (about 21.72 million euros) less for Mazeikiu Nafta shares than it planned in the spring. As the Lithuanian business newspaper Verslo zinios notes, an agreement was concluded with the Polish PKN Orlen that it would pay $851.829 million for the shares. However, due to the difference in dollar rates on May 19 and November 30, the state will lose almost 74.7 million litas. The sale of shares of Mazeikiu Nafta with the Polish concern PKN Orlen is scheduled to be completed on December 15. BNS