Bushehr saved

UN sanctions against Iran benefit Russia

The international community will now talk to Tehran with a document in hand that was unanimously adopted by the UN Security Council . This became possible thanks to Russia’s principled and at the same time flexible position. However, “more energetic actions” on Iran are already expected from Moscow, as stated, in particular, by US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns.

Russia, however, has already done its maximum to both maintain the unity of the world community and protect its economic interests in Iran . The voting on the Iranian resolution was even postponed from Friday, although it was previously planned, to Saturday: all because the Russian delegation carefully polished the text of the document and verified the wording. The Russians did not like that the Security Council demanded that all countries “freeze funds, other financial assets and economic resources” of a number of firms, organizations and individuals involved in Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. A day before the vote, the list was shortened at the insistence of Russia. To ensure that nothing goes wrong, hours before the vote, on Saturday, US President George W. Bush called his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, hearing from him a promise that Moscow would still support sanctions .

And yet, yesterday in Washington they were forced to admit that the text of UN Security Council Resolution 1737 is much softer than the version that the United States insisted on. The same Mr. Burns said that his bosses were “frustrated” due to the long negotiation process, as well as due to “the barriers that were put up by a number of countries that took part in it.” Therefore, in Washington, he said, they hope for “more energetic actions” by Russia on Iran, including with regard to stopping arms supplies. According to Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, Moscow "managed to defend the basic principles with which it approached the development of this resolution from the very beginning." First of all, the nuclear power plant in Bushehr, which has been under construction since 1995 with the participation of our country , was excluded from the scope of the resolution, although the United States wanted to extend sanctions to this project worth $1 billion. Moscow managed to leave military-technical cooperation with Iran intact, which is now especially annoying Americans. We are talking about contracts for the supply of Tor-M1 defensive systems .

Thanks to Russia's efforts, UN Security Council Resolution 1737 does not prohibit foreign travel by those high-ranking Iranian officials associated with the nuclear and missile programs. The resolution only calls on all countries to “exercise vigilance” regarding the entry or transit of these officials and to report these facts to the UN Security Council sanctions committee.

Finally, Moscow managed to exclude from the document’s preamble the thesis that the Iranian nuclear program “poses a threat to international peace and security.” This formulation would allow the United States to raise the issue of bringing into force Article 42 of Chapter VII of the UN Charter, which talks about the possibility of using military force against Iran.

However, even taking into account the amendments introduced by Russia, resolution 1737 looks harsh and Tehran does not like it. Iran must suspend all activities related to uranium enrichment and processing, including research. Tehran must also suspend all work on the heavy water reactor. At the same time, all UN member countries must take “necessary measures” to prevent the supply to and from Iran of “items, materials, equipment, goods and technologies that could facilitate activities related to uranium enrichment, reprocessing of irradiated fuel, heavy water projects and development of nuclear weapons delivery vehicles.”

Now, within 60 days, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Muhammad ElBaradei, will prepare a report on Iran’s compliance with the requirements of the resolution. If its conclusions are negative, the Security Council is ready to impose “further non-military sanctions.”

The likelihood of such a development of events is high, since the Iranians criticize everyone who supported the resolution, including Russia, and do not want to cooperate with the UN. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has already called the resolution a “piece of paper,” saying that the Security Council that adopted it is “a servant of the United States, Great Britain and the Zionist regime (Israel - Ed. ).” And the official representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Mohammad Ali Hosseini, said yesterday that “Iran’s response to the UN Security Council resolution will be an even more decisive continuation of nuclear activities.”

Mr. Hosseini confirmed Tehran's intention to install 3,000 centrifuges for uranium enrichment at the Natanz nuclear facility. At the same time, the Foreign Ministry representative made it clear that Iran “does not consider itself obligated” to cooperate with the IAEA “at the same level,” without, however, explaining what changes will be made to this cooperation. The head of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, Mikhail Margelov, also believes that “there is no confidence that the proposed measures will force Tehran to abandon its nuclear program,” the military nature of which, according to him, “has not been clearly proven.”

However, the Iranians' threat to increase the number of centrifuges may indicate otherwise. Leading researcher at the Center for International Security at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Major General Vladimir Belous, in an interview with Vremya Novostey, admitted that “in parallel with the development of a peaceful nuclear program, Iran can master a military program.” “Uranium artillery charges are simple in design. By distilling the gaseous component of uranium hexafluoride through a cascade of centrifuges, the output can produce weapons-grade uranium, which is used to fill projectiles. To obtain 25-30 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, sufficient to equip one atomic bomb, you need to have several thousand centrifuges. This amount of weapons-grade uranium can be obtained using the 164 centrifuges that Iran currently has. But this will take about two to three years. Iran's desire to increase the number of centrifuges to 3 thousand by March 2007 indicates that Tehran is in a hurry to take its place among the owners of nuclear weapons,” said the newspaper’s interlocutor.

At the same time, General Belous is confident that the nuclear power plant in Bushehr is quite rightly excluded from the scope of the resolution. In his opinion, at the nuclear power plant under construction in Bushehr, equipped with pressurized water reactors, it is impossible to obtain sufficiently enriched uranium suitable for the production of nuclear weapons: “This requires cascades of centrifuges and heavy water reactors. Therefore, the resolution prohibits Iran from using centrifugation, the end result of which could be uranium-235, used in the military industry, and heavy water reactors, which are one step away from producing weapons-grade plutonium.”

General Belous is confident that UN sanctions will be effective, since ultimately the international community is unlikely to allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons: “In their current form, the sanctions are rather weak, but I think that this is only the first step of the UN Security Council. “In the future, more stringent measures may be taken against Iran, including the seizure of international bank accounts and an economic blockade.”

Vice-President of the Russian College of Military Experts, Major General Alexander Vladimirov, also reminded Vremya Novostei that uranium production directly depends on the number of centrifuges: “Centrifugation is used to obtain uranium, which is used in the production of nuclear weapons. The more centrifuges, the more feedstock for nuclear weapons will be obtained. Moreover, several thousand centrifuges form a large field of targets, which is difficult to hit immediately if it is necessary to destroy it.”

General Vladimirov explained to Vremya Novostey why the resolution also prohibits the Iranians from working with a heavy water reactor, although Iran already has one in the city of Arak: “Heavy water is the starting material for the production of weapons-grade plutonium, which can be obtained in a heavy water reactor.” However, according to this expert, sanctions will not be able to put an end to the Iranian nuclear program. “This is China's 101st warning. It seems to me that the UN itself does not know how to neutralize Iran’s nuclear program. Everyone is frightened by the appearance of a nuclear thorn in the hands of the Islamic regime in Tehran. True, Pakistan already has nuclear weapons, and if anyone in the West believes that Pakistan is under control, then he is seriously mistaken. By the way, the centrifuges operating in Iran are copies of Pakistani centrifuges and most likely received from there,” the newspaper’s interlocutor noted.

Victor VOLODIN, Petr ISKENDEROV