Iran's Atomic Reality

Igor Ivanov promised to deliver the station on time

Moscow is convinced that “there is no military or forceful solution to the Iranian nuclear problem,” Secretary of the Russian Security Council Igor Ivanov said in Tehran yesterday. He also conveyed to the Iranian side messages from President Vladimir Putin to spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. According to Mr. Ivanov, “the main idea that runs through these messages is Russia’s firm intention to develop good neighborly relations with its long-time partner Iran.”

However, Tehran still does not intend to abandon its nuclear program. Leading Iranian politicians told the Secretary of the Security Council that any negotiations with the world community are now possible only on the basis of recognition of Iran as a nuclear power. And although Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki spoke in favor of finding a “comprehensive formula for solving the Iranian nuclear problem,” Igor Ivanov did not hear consent to suspend nuclear development. According to the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Ali Larijani, “nuclear Iran is already a reality that sooner or later the nuclear club will have to come to terms with.”

However, there remains room for compromise. Tehran drew attention to the initiative recently announced by the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Muhammad ElBaradei in Davos. He called on Iran and the UN Security Council to take a simultaneous “time out” - to suspend uranium enrichment and freeze the anti-Iranian sanctions imposed by the Security Council on December 23, 2006. Igor Ivanov called this proposal a means of “political solution” to Iran’s nuclear problem, and Ali Larijani promised to “carefully study” it.

The intractability of the Iranians will not affect the pace of construction of the nuclear power plant in Bushehr with Russian participation. Igor Ivanov confirmed that Moscow intends to fulfill its obligations to commission the nuclear power plant on time. Its launch is scheduled for September; two months later the nuclear power plant will be connected to Iranian energy networks.

Mr. Ivanov's visit to Tehran came amid announcements that 3,000 new centrifuges would be installed at the Natanz nuclear center, in addition to the existing 164. At the end of 2006, President Ahmadinejad promised that his country would report new nuclear successes in early February -- during the celebration of the next anniversary of the Islamic Revolution of 1979. At the end of last week, the Iranian agency IRNA reported that “Iran is installing 3 thousand centrifuges.” However, later the press service of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran stated that new centrifuges have not yet been installed at Natanz.

Statements about new centrifuges and the start of industrial production of nuclear fuel can be considered Tehran’s response to resolution 1737. Iranians have long warned that they do not agree with the very fact of transferring the nuclear dossier from the IAEA to the UN Security Council, recalls Irina Fedorova, an expert on Iran at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In a conversation with Vremya Novostei, she noted that the installation of new centrifuges and the increase in nuclear fuel production in itself do not indicate the military nature of the Iranian nuclear program. “But the main thing is that this activity should be completely controlled by the IAEA,” the expert believes. According to Ms. Fedorova, “the role of the IAEA in the Iranian nuclear problem should continuously increase and become a decisive factor in the preparation of future documents for the UN Security Council.” The expert also recalled that “Russia’s proposal to provide Tehran with nuclear fuel for nuclear power plants with the subsequent return of spent material to Russia remains unchanged.” “This is the best way to remove suspicions from the Iranian nuclear program,” says VN’s interlocutor.

Petr ISKENDEROV