Yesterday marked six months since 80-year-old Cuban leader Fidel Castro handed over control of the country to his younger brother, 75-year-old Defense Minister Raul Castro. The topic of the commandant’s health became a state secret, giving rise to a stream of rumors about an unsuccessful surgical operation, the leader’s fatal illness and his imminent, or even already occurring, death. The last time Cubans saw their leader on a silver screen was October 28, 2006.
And for the first time in the last three months, Cuban television showed a new video of Fidel Castro. The ten-minute video was dedicated to his meeting with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, which took place in Havana on January 29. All of Cuba saw Castro drinking orange juice and standing talking with a guest. Fidel's voice was heard on camera: "As I said, this battle is not lost yet." According to television reports, the meeting lasted about two hours.
The Venezuelan president, who considers Castro his political father, claims he found Fidel "in good spirits and with his usual sense of humor." During the meeting, Castro joked that his illnesses were "one after another" and that he had not yet fully recovered from a fall during a performance in 2004. Then the commander broke his leg and seriously bruised his arm. Both leaders ended the meeting with the words: “We will win! Motherland, socialism or death!
Video footage from Havana clearly did not please the motley Cuban opposition in the United States. The municipal authorities of the city of Miami, together with emigrant organizations, have already created a committee to prepare for the “expected event.” The city's largest stadium was rented to celebrate the death of Fidel Castro. “Castro represents all the evil that has been done to the people of Cuba over the past 48 years. Therefore, his passing should be properly celebrated, no matter what happens later,” said Miami Assemblyman Tomas Regalado. However, the leader of the influential organization of Cuban emigrants, the Movement for Democracy, Raul Sanchez admitted yesterday in an interview with the Florida emigrant newspaper Sun Sentinel that “there is no point in having a holiday if the communist regime in Cuba continues after the death of Fidel Castro.”
Deputy Director of the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences Boris Martynov reminded Vremya Novostei that Castro was more than once predicted to die soon - in December 2006, former US Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte stated that Fidel had cancer and was dying, in January the Spanish newspaper Pais “Wrote that the Comandante’s days are numbered. “The appearance of a video with a living Castro was the best refutation of these speculations,” says Mr. Martynov. According to VN’s interlocutor, “back in the early 1990s in Florida, the grandchildren of the first wave of Cuban emigrants were preparing with glee for Castro’s death and were literally sitting on their suitcases.”
However, the expert is confident that during the 48 years of Castro’s rule in Cuba, a new society has grown and a stable version of the social model has emerged. Boris Martynov believes that since the Cuban version of socialism survived in conditions of a severe crisis, then against the backdrop of the general tilt to the left throughout Latin America, “it is difficult to imagine that Cuba will shy away into the arms of the United States and open its doors to emigration after the death of Fidel.” The expert pointed out to VN the heterogeneity of the Cuban emigration: “Emigrants are now in no hurry to return to Cuba. The grandchildren and great-grandchildren of ardent opponents of Castro have already integrated into the American way of life, they have their own businesses, many of them speak almost no Spanish. In the future, the island state will most likely develop according to the Chinese model, and then investments by emigrants in the national economy will be in demand.”