Translated material
Resignation rates
An information battle for the post of President of Chechnya is unfolding
On Thursday, rumors about impending grandiose personnel changes in Chechnya thickened again. In the first half of the day, a number of news agencies reported, citing sources in the plenipotentiary representation of the republic to the President of the Russian Federation in Moscow, that the secretary of the Council for Economic and Public Security of Chechnya, German Vok, had resigned. Besides him, two advisers to the President of Chechnya, Alu Alkhanov, and the deputy head of the department of external relations of his administration were named among the retirees. Some commentators have rushed to interpret the announcement of the resignations as a weakening of Mr. Alkhanov's team and a sign of his imminent resignation, which would free up the presidency of Chechnya for its current prime minister, Ramzan Kadyrov. But within a few hours, denials of reports of layoffs began to arrive. And by the evening, a source in the administration of the Russian Presidential Plenipotentiary Representative in the Southern Federal District categorically stated that no significant changes were planned in the system of executive power in Chechnya.Despite the denials, information about the resignations further thickened the background of the confrontation between the prime minister and the president of Chechnya. Although both men regularly claim that the conflict is a figment of the imagination of unscrupulous journalists and politicians seeking to disrupt the fragile political stability in the republic, the confrontation has become public in recent weeks. Moreover, the Prime Minister and his supporters clearly appear to be the attacking side. Two weeks ago, the Mufti of Chechnya, in a special address to believers, accused President Alkhanov of inciting religious hatred due to the fact that the head of the republic, in one of his interviews, mentioned the death of Sheikh Kunta-Haji, who lived in the 19th century and was exiled by the tsarist authorities. The mufti considered that the mention of the sheikh's death unacceptably offends the feelings of believers, who believe that Kunta-haji continues to live in mystical concealment and will sooner or later return to his homeland. Apparently, the president cannot address his fellow citizens with explanations: according to some reports, he is deprived of access to republican television.
Already this week, in an interview with Profile magazine, Ramzan Kadyrov himself accused his boss of tactlessness and political myopia and complained that he spends 170 days a year on business trips outside of Chechnya. Mr. Kadyrov once again emphasized that he “does not want to be the president of the republic - at least not like Alkhanov.” The main character of yesterday's resignation intrigue, Chechen Security Council Secretary German Vok, was also criticized by the prime minister - the only one who publicly took the president's side in the "religious" scandal.
The head of the Security Council is considered one of the few consistent supporters of President Alkhanov who remain in key administrative posts in Grozny. The Security Council, which Prime Minister Kadyrov tried to dissolve last year, was re-created by Alu Alkhanov in hopes of strengthening his position in the republic, and was headed by a person who was not part of “Kadyrov’s team.” Yesterday the press service of the Chechen president reported that Mr. Vok had only gone on vacation and there was no talk of any resignation. Personally, German Vok, like the presidential adviser, did not give any comments. However, the mere release of one of the president’s key supporters at such a tense moment looks like a rather alarming signal. Moreover, in North Caucasian political practice, vacations and even sick leave often end in resignation - even if the vacationers themselves believe until the last minute that they will return to their office.
Nevertheless, the only one of the mentioned “retirees” who himself confirmed yesterday that he had written a letter of resignation was the deputy head of the public relations department, Ramzan Amerkhanov. Mr. Amerkhanov told reporters that he submitted his resignation several days ago, but the corresponding decree has not yet been signed by the president.
No one in Chechnya gave any official comments yesterday regarding the latest personnel news. But unofficially, officials confirm that “there is no smoke without fire”: there was a surge of panic among the president’s people and could have been caused by rumors about the latter’s imminent departure. In addition, Alkhanov’s supporters in Chechnya work under constant pressure, without feeling a reliable rear. In any case, the already small number of Alu Alkhanov’s supporters may be further reduced. And this will lead to the president completely losing control over the situation in the republic.
Some federal politicians view the President of Chechnya as a political figure capable of balancing the temperament and ambitions of the influential Prime Minister, Ramzan Kadyrov. Political scientists note that Mr. Alkhanov, who in the first months of his presidency acted as a simple extra under Mr. Kadyrov, who was underage before the presidency, has recently become more active and independent. But if “Alkhanov’s team” in Grozny ceases to exist, his post will be completely devalued, and Mr. Kadyrov will become the rightful owner of the republic, even if the forecast of officials of the Southern Federal District is correct and there will be no formal change of the head of the republic. In Chechnya, a unique precedent for Russia has already been created for the distribution of real power between the head of the region and the prime minister in favor of the latter.
Meanwhile, representatives of the “old anti-Dudaev opposition”, who still make up the most loyal part of the Chechen elite towards Russia, warn that the departure of the law-abiding Alkhanov and the reliance on the unpredictable Kadyrov will mean the inevitable return of Chechnya to the status of a hot spot - albeit not immediately, and a few years later: “You cannot build a reliable political system relying on the bayonets of those who recently fought in the ranks of illegal groups.”
Mr. Alkhanov himself, according to information from his circle, is not yet planning to resign, except if the Russian President demands it. His diplomatic supporters, like Mr. Kadyrov's more emotional supporters, are also waiting for a go-ahead from the Kremlin to end the tiresome and dangerous standoff.