Translated material
Than the heart will calm down
Less than two months have passed since Russia’s New Year’s increase in gas and oil prices for Belarus, and Minsk stated that it was ready to exchange “allied” friendship with Moscow for the normalization of relations with the West: “I admit the mistake and shortcoming of our foreign policy, that it turned out to be one-vector, with a vector towards Russia. And we actually lost the West. We stood on one leg, but we should stand on two.” It also became clear that the problem had arisen seriously and for a long time. In an interview given by the Belarusian president to Reuters, the dad outlined his intentions to remain in office for a fourth term, that is, after 2011.
Some Russian experts believe that in order to avoid conflicts, Russia should not have contributed to the next, third re-election of Lukashenko, the legitimacy of whose regime is not recognized either in Europe or in America. In their opinion, it was necessary to find another negotiable force in Belarus and work with the opposition.
At the same time, the creation of a union between Russia and Belarus led by Lukashenko can actually be forgotten. Although there is a constitutional act on the union with Belarus, it is in the hands of the presidents of both states, but has not been signed. It talks about some “union” principles - a single border, a single defense, a single customs policy, the implementation of which is impossible in the current situation.
After the oil and gas conflict, Russia took the next step: it announced the construction of a bypass oil pipeline through Velikiye Luki to Primorsk, on the Baltic. The capacity of the new pipeline is up to 50 million tons per year.
According to financial analysts, the construction of new terminals and the highway itself will be very expensive (according to some sources, $2-2.5 billion). Opinions differ regarding the reaction to such construction from Europe. On the one hand, if the project is implemented, Europe's energy security will significantly increase, on the other hand, difficulties may arise with its neighbors, including in terms of ecology, as well as the ability of European ports to accept additional volumes of oil.
It may turn out that one of the two oil pipelines will operate at only half capacity, because it is unrealistic to increase oil exports to Europe by 50 million tons annually in order to completely fill both pipelines (if Lukashenko suddenly begins to strictly comply with all the agreements reached). Thus, we are talking primarily about “geopolitical” investments. On the other hand, by laying a bypass oil pipeline through its territory, Russia will save on paying for the transit tariff, which Alexander Lukashenko is threatening to constantly increase, and will demonstrate to Western consumers its readiness to take serious steps for the uninterrupted delivery of fuel to them. However, a similar construction project in the gas sector - the North European Gas Pipeline along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, designed to partly overcome the problems that have arisen with other transit countries (Ukraine, Poland), has not yet reassured the Europeans too much.
Meanwhile, some experts believe that the announcement about the construction of a new pipeline is only a step in the Russian-Belarusian negotiations. And that the reality of this project will become clear no earlier than in six months: either “past the daddy” seriously and for a long time (like he himself at the head of Belarus), or the achievement of more or less acceptable agreements for Russia, which will calm the restless heart of the Belarusian leader.