Translated material
Nuclear Desert Storm
The US is ready to strike Iran at any moment
The protracted conflict between the United States and Iran could enter a military phase at any moment. As British media reported yesterday, the American aircraft carrier group located in the Persian Gulf region is fully prepared to launch attacks on Iranian targets. Yesterday, the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier John Stennis, capable of carrying up to 80 aircraft and helicopters, entered the Gulf of Oman. It joined the aircraft carrier Dwight Eisenhower already there. Three or four more similar warships will be able to join the attack on Iran at any time.The US Army Central Command in Florida has already compiled a list of targets for missile and bomb attacks. It included uranium enrichment centers in Natanz and Isfahan, a heavy water production plant in Arak, and even Bushehr, where the construction of a nuclear power plant is being completed with the participation of Russian specialists. To destroy the nuclear facilities located at a depth of 25 meters in Natanz, heavy anti-bunker bombs will be used, dropped from B-2 strategic bombers. In addition, the Pentagon intends to strike Iranian air and naval bases, missile launchers and command centers.
The situation around Tehran's nuclear program is developing according to the most dangerous scenario. Today expires the two-month deadline given to Iran by the UN Security Council to suspend uranium enrichment. But, according to the BBC, President George W. Bush's order to strike Iran would not necessarily be based on Tehran's desire to acquire nuclear weapons. A military operation could become a reality in the event of the simultaneous death of a large number of American troops in neighboring Iraq. The White House has repeatedly accused Iran of supporting Iraqi Shiite militants.
Adopted on December 23, 2006, Security Council Resolution 1737 authorized the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Muhammad ElBaradei, to report on Iran's compliance with the requirements to suspend uranium enrichment work. However, there is nothing to report to him. While not formally abandoning cooperation with Mr. ElBaradei’s department, the Iranian side is not stopping work with uranium, but, on the contrary, is speeding it up.
The IAEA Director General admitted for the first time in an interview with the London Financial Times that Iran will be able to install 3,000 additional centrifuges and begin uranium enrichment on an industrial scale within 6-12 months. The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Gholamreza Aghazadeh, announced an even tighter deadline. According to him, Iranian nuclear scientists are ready to commission one cascade consisting of 164 centrifuges every week. At this rate, Iran could have 3,000 centrifuges by the summer. And yesterday's statement by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that the West should “suspend the functioning of its nuclear fuel cycle” during negotiations only added fuel to the fire.
The Bush administration's intention to open another military front outside the country, and in particular to bomb the Bushehr nuclear power plant , will certainly increase the degree of debate in the American Congress. Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has already said that congressmen must “make clear that neither this president nor any other president has the authority to attack Iran.”
However, it is unlikely that Democratic resistance will stop President Bush. According to Ivan Safranchuk, director of the Russian office of the International Center for Defense Information, American air strikes on targets on Iranian territory are quite likely. In a conversation with a Vremya Novostei correspondent, he expressed the opinion that initially these strikes could be limited in nature and “pursue not so much military as demonstrative purposes.”
The expert anticipates tough debates in the UN Security Council over the new resolution on Iran: “China and Russia will most likely insist on continuing diplomatic efforts to resolve the problem, while the US and UK will speak out for tougher measures, since Iran has not complied with the December UN Security Council resolution.” Another problem is that Tehran, in principle, does not recognize the right of the Security Council to impose any sanctions against it. “Iran insists that the country has not violated any international agreements in the nuclear field, because the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, of which Tehran is a member, does not prohibit uranium enrichment,” Mr. Safranchuk emphasized.
Alexander Pikaev, head of the department of disarmament and conflict resolution at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, is also confident that Iran will not make concessions, and this will exacerbate its confrontation with the United States. “Tehran demands specific commitments and promises from the United States, which Washington does not give,” he explained to Vremya Novostey. As for the IAEA, this organization is not responsible for the actions of the United States, and therefore “cannot guarantee Iran compliance with its demands. Therefore, negotiations between Tehran and international representatives, even if they begin, can only resolve a number of individual issues and thereby partially stabilize the situation around Iran,” Mr. Pikaev believes.
However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov remains convinced that a solution to Iran's nuclear problem can be found at the negotiating table. “We are striving, through extremely intensive contacts with Tehran, to ensure that our Iranian colleagues respond to calls from virtually the entire world community and take a pause in their uranium enrichment work to allow us all to begin much-needed negotiations,” he said the other day. “We are convinced that we need to look for ways to resume negotiations with Iran,” the minister emphasized.
The restraint of the Russian position is due to the fact that the presentation of ElBaradei’s negative report does not mean an automatic tightening of sanctions against Iran or the adoption of any other measures of influence against Tehran. The document will still be discussed at the IAEA Board of Governors and the UN Security Council. A meeting of the Board of Governors is scheduled for March 5. But the Security Council has not yet given any specific dates.