The US is puzzled

The ongoing squabbles between the US and Russia in 2006 over the UN resolution on the Iranian nuclear issue did not prevent Moscow from supplying Iran with Tor-M1 anti-aircraft missile systems worth over $700 million. Using its influence in the UN Security Council, Russia in 2006 achieved a softening of sanctions against Iran: they were reduced to measures against Iranian companies involved in the nuclear and missile programs.

In January 2007, when US relations with Iran were strained again by the US arrests of Iranian officials in Iraq, President Vladimir Putin supported the Iranian initiative to create a “gas OPEC.” And in early February, in a speech in Munich, Putin said that it was precisely the aggressive US policy that was pushing countries like Iran to develop nuclear weapons.

“Russia is a huge problem on the Iranian front,” says former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, who regularly sparred with Russian diplomats over the Iranian issue throughout 2006. “When it comes to relations between Russia and Iran, it’s hard to say who’s the patron and who’s the client.”

U.S. administration officials who continue to handle relations with Russia are more cautious. But their concerns about Moscow’s policies in the Middle East and elsewhere are growing. “When it comes to Iran, the Russians want a piece of the pie, too,” says a senior U.S. official. “They want to appear to be working to keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons, while remaining a friend and a weapons supplier.” Discussing Iran allows Moscow to demonstrate to other Middle Eastern states the potential geopolitical dividends of friendship with Russia.

Moscow and Washington have had disagreements in the Middle East before. But never since the Cold War have they gone this far. When the US tried to invade Iraq in 2003, Russia limited itself to publicly expressing its disagreement. Back in 2005, under pressure from the US and Israel, Russia refused to supply man-portable air defense systems to Syria and signed an agreement with the US to mutually inform about future deliveries of such weapons.

Now all talk of a “strategic partnership” between Washington and Moscow has finally ceased. After a recent visit to the US, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called Washington “the most difficult partner.”

Russia's policy in the region is acquiring features of the Cold War period, believes Alexander Ignatenko, president of the Institute of Religion and Politics. At that time, the countries of the region extracted maximum benefits from the confrontation between the USA and the USSR and are now trying to return to the past, seeing Russia as one of the possible counterweights to the USA, he believes.

There are no disagreements

In a recent interview with Qatar's Al Jazeera, Putin said Russia no longer has any serious political differences with any Arab country. He is accompanied on trips to the region by representatives of Russia's major energy, military-industrial and nuclear corporations. "There is no ideology here anymore, only business," says Yevgeny Satanovsky of the Middle East Institute.

The Middle East is a key direction for Russian arms and nuclear technology exports. Putin is counting on the potential of these industries in his fight to diversify the Russian economy. Arms exports in 2007 could reach a record $7.5 billion, with deliveries to the Middle East growing fastest. In 2006, the military-industrial complex weakened its dependence on the Indian and Chinese markets, and deliveries to the Middle East reached $1.4 billion, or 21% of the volume, recalls Konstantin Makienko from the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. There are also hopes for geographic expansion through Saudi Arabia and Qatar, says Makienko.

The fuel and energy complex also receives dividends from Moscow's foreign policy activity in the Middle East, believes Valery Nesterov from Troika Dialog. Lukoil is implementing new projects in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Tatneft is working in Libya, and Gazprom has intensified contacts with Algeria. But there is no talk of returning the positions that the USSR once had in the region, Nesterov believes.

When the situation in Lebanon came up at the G8 summit in St. Petersburg last July, Putin, according to WSJ sources familiar with the talks, recalled the early days of his presidency. In 2000, he was dealing with a war in Chechnya and a wobbly economy. All the promises of support from G8 partners had been empty, but there had been plenty of criticism of the Russian military's brutality in Chechnya, he said. Middle Eastern countries had proven to be far more constructive partners, Putin said. And he concluded: Russia would sign the G8 statement on the Middle East if it did not damage Moscow's relations with the Islamic world "one iota." (WSJ materials were used.)

Middle Eastern Renaissance