Translated material
Oil for intelligence
Russia must become an intellectual superpower, not an energy superpower
Today Russia is at a historical crossroads. In front of the country, like in front of the knight in the painting of the artist Vasnetsov, there is a fork in the road. One way is an energy empire. The other is a superpower of creation and technology. Moreover, in order to follow each of these paths, Russia has all the necessary and sufficient conditions.The Russian Federation is so rich in natural resources, and the most diverse, that in comparison with us, Saudi Arabia seems deprived of God. Moreover, in the future, not only the subsoil, but also the fresh waters of the great Siberian rivers and the taiga, which, along with the Amazon delta, is the lungs of the planet Earth, may turn out to be a colossal natural resource. And even the endless Russian steppes, which in about ten years can be turned into the “great energy steppe”, the energy breadbasket of Eurasia - in the light of the world community’s course towards the development of bioenergy carriers as a substitute for oil, gas and coal, this is absolutely possible.
However, the course of focusing the economy on the use primarily of natural resources is extremely dangerous for many reasons. Let's mention only two. The colossal influx of money into the country, determined by a single - energy - sector, gives rise to monstrous imbalances in the economy, which, as a result, does not always work for the benefit of the people; often the result is the exact opposite. Example: today the cost of housing in Moscow has reached unheard of levels. As a result, the growth of the country's prosperity is illusory, in particular because it inevitably stimulates a massive outflow of talented youth abroad - the basis for the prosperity of any nation. Indeed, at such prices, even those who do not have their own home, even relatively well-earning specialists, can save in a year amounts that are enough for approximately one square meter of living space.
Despite unprecedented construction in the Russian capital in history, there has never been such a catastrophic situation with the availability of housing - or rather, with its inaccessibility - for the majority of the population in Moscow. The enormous cost of housing generated by the imbalance of the oil-driven economy also dooms any (I emphasize: any!) project to eradicate corruption among officials. Even for just one “apartment” reason. After all, as a basic calculation shows, having started saving money today, an honest worker will be able to save up for a two-room apartment in Moscow no sooner than in forty years.
The second global problem of the country's strategic orientation toward a raw material export economy is the instability of energy prices. Have you ever seen a product, having been accumulated in warehouses for years to come, be in chronic shortage? Meanwhile, proven oil reserves, even taking into account the rapid growth of Asian countries, will last for at least 30 years. The only chance of maintaining high prices is to maintain an explosive situation in the oil-producing regions and the collusion of the countries from which oil is exported, due to which the supply of energy resources to the markets will be artificially restrained.
However, is it far-sighted to count on strategic instability in the world and its artificial inflation? And is there a possibility of permanently artificially limiting the entry of any product into the world market? In addition to doubts about the reality of realizing these hopes in the long term, this approach defines the uniquely reactionary position of countries interested in artificially maintaining high prices and instability in hot spots of the world, contrasting them with industrialized countries. Thus, the world is automatically divided into constantly warring blocs.
Finally, this is a strategically unrealizable policy. Taking into account the course of industrialized countries towards the rapid development of alternative fuels (from bioenergy carriers to nuclear power plants) so that over the next 8-10 years the dependence on energy exports will be reduced significantly, the possibility of long-term maintenance of high oil prices seems extremely doubtful. What then?
Is it a coincidence that the Saudi Arabian authorities have repeatedly opposed excessive restrictions on oil production by OPEC countries? Of course not. The point is absolutely not that the king of this country follows in someone else's political wake. And the fact is that the economy of this country is diversified, that this country has enormous investments abroad. Therefore, the global economic crisis will have a stronger negative impact on the Saudi Arabian economy than the excess oil profits contribute to its prosperity - there is no doubt that when colossal amounts of money are involved, the balance is calculated and decisions are made without any romance. Second, no less important circumstance: highly professional experts of this country (and a number of other oil-producing countries) have long understood that industrialized countries have the opportunity to transfer energy to a path independent of oil and gas, in particular to nuclear and biofuels . And unlike other OPEC partners, who are much less forward-thinking, the Saudis are doing everything possible to delay the adoption of a strategic decision by the world's leading industrial countries on a fundamental energy transformation.
The unipolarity of the world at the beginning of the 21st century is an illusion. Today the world is bipolar. On the one hand - civilization, on the other - global terrorism. Terrorism in the broadest sense of the word. You don't have to kill to be a terrorist. For example, deliberately undermining the world economy is one of the goals of international terrorism. People, organizations and entire countries doing everything possible to impede the normal development of the global economy and society are uniting around the world and do not hide it. Whose side will Russia be on? The country of Chekhov, Mendeleev, Pushkin, Tchaikovsky, Diaghilev, Bunin, Mussorgsky, Balanchine, Galina Ulanova, Svyatoslav Richter, Gagarin, Rachmaninov, Chaliapin, Leo Tolstoy - the list goes on and on! So who should Russia be with? On which side of the bipolar world, in which the poles are marked with absolute clarity? The answer is obvious. Russia is a country that has made and is making a colossal intellectual contribution to all areas of culture, knowledge and technology, a country that until recently had the second science in the world after the American one, which is incredibly honorable, the first in the world to launch an artificial satellite and send the first cosmonaut into space. Russia's place is among civilized countries, and only there. There is not the slightest doubt about this. This is absolutely indisputable and beyond discussion.
At the same time, Russia, of course, should not follow anyone’s political lead. And it is not obliged to applaud any decisions made by its G8 partners. Stupidity has no national boundaries, and everyone makes mistakes; it is completely natural for a country like Russia to pursue its political and economic line, it cannot be otherwise. But under no circumstances should Russia become a hostage to its colossal natural resources.
Russia is an energy power, as history and nature have decreed. But Russia today has a different path of development. For never in its entire history have Russian science and technology been in such a wonderful state as it is now, if only we consider as the boundaries of Russian science, technology and intelligence not the state border, but any point on the globe where Russian speech is heard . And then it turns out that in all the leading universities of the world and in most scientific and technological companies in Western Europe, people of Russian culture and science occupy a worthy place.
At Microsoft, entire departments speak Russian. At the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, out of nine award-winning projects, six have Russian names among their leaders. Russian-speaking specialists have powerfully penetrated the business, scientific and technological life of more than 70 countries, in a variety of fields - from programming to finance, from opera to nanotechnology, from law to medicine. According to all studies conducted, emigration from Russia is the most successful in the entire history of the United States, and the gap with the rest is huge. There is not a single technology company in Greater New York that does not have a person who speaks Russian either as a manager or in one of the key positions.
Calculations show that the annual turnover of Russians abroad (including money directly or indirectly controlled by Russian-speaking people) exceeds the Russian budget with all the income received from the sale of oil. The global Russian-speaking Oikumene is a colossal force. It is Russia's strategic reserve, tens of times greater than its gold and foreign exchange reserves.
At the same time, if the governments of other countries, in particular China, India, South Korea, have to spend tens of billions of dollars on education for young people at leading universities in the USA and Western Europe, in order to boost the economy, the Russian Federation received such wealth completely free of charge. In this case, undoubtedly, the power of Russian culture, Russian tradition, and the Russian approach to knowledge and creation was at work.
Today, Russian intellect throughout the world is an Empire. This is not only reserve and not only potential. Today this is already a reality.
Alas, the Russian Federation hardly uses its colossal intellectual resources around the world. People from Russian scientific and technological schools make a significant contribution to the world economy and culture outside Russia, and only there. These are not the people who know how to give bribes or break laws. When explaining to them the simplest and seemingly harmless fact, as familiar to the Russian ear as the noise of a bulldozer, that to do business in the Russian Federation you need a “roof,” they are horrified and in 90 percent of cases they immediately take a return ticket. They do not redistribute, but create; they do not snatch, but produce. Once in the corrupt environment that has formed in Russia, these people are lost.
In addition, the widespread idea among the Russian political elite and at the everyday level that Russia must necessarily rule the world alienates Russian-speaking people, many of whom were born and/or educated outside the country.
Today, the Russian Federation has a unique strategic chance to become a superpower of intelligence and technology . Moreover, thanks to oil revenues for the development of relevant industries, there are material opportunities to complete this metamorphosis. But if nothing is done, this unique strategic opportunity may be irretrievably lost in a few years.
A balanced, strategically far-sighted policy is needed to transform the Russian Federation into an intellectual superpower, which is the epicenter of the “Russian world” throughout the world. So that Russia becomes, first of all, a country of creation and creativity, which it actually is today in the diaspora on all continents.
The transformation of the Russian Federation into an intellectual superpower can happen in a few years, because all the necessary components for this are already available in Russia and abroad. Solving this challenge requires a combination of strategic vision with administrative resources and adequate financial support. In addition, will and perseverance in achieving the goals of the government and the Duma, politicians and analysts, the president and the people are required.
You just need to gather all the available forces and capabilities together, carefully consider the action plan and begin its practical implementation.