There will be yurts on the square

The new government of Kyrgyzstan is living its last days

Today, President of Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiyev will address the people on national television. And yesterday, the opposition united front “For a Decent Future of Kyrgyzstan,” led by ex-Prime Minister Felix Kulov, announced April 5 as the start of an indefinite hunger strike of protest.

The president has two reasons for making a televised address. Firstly, tomorrow is the second anniversary of the events of March 24, 2005, when the opposition led by the People's Movement of Kyrgyzstan (PDK) came to power and its leader became the head of state. Secondly, Bakiyev promised today to officially respond to the demands of the opposition movement “For Reforms,” which were conveyed to him on March 21 by the co-chairman of the movement, Almazbek Atambayev. The “reformists,” the majority of whom are Bakiyev’s former comrades in the National Democratic Party, are calling on the president to carry out the long-promised constitutional reform and set a deadline for its implementation by April 10. Otherwise, the movement promises to start protests.

“Front-line soldiers” believe that President Bakiyev cannot be trusted, he is not able to carry out reforms, they must be carried out by another leader. Therefore, the main demand of the front is early presidential elections, and only then constitutional reform. The hunger strike, which 50 “front-line soldiers” are scheduled to begin on April 5 under the walls of the Bishkek White House (the residence of the president and government), will be the beginning of their “peaceful actions of disobedience.” On April 11, they will enter the active phase - dozens of yurts will appear in the central square of Bishkek, and their inhabitants will begin an indefinite protest rally. They say that if a Kyrgyz builds a yurt, it will last for a long time...

Yesterday, one of the leaders of the Kulova Front, Emil Aliyev, said that on the first day of the rally, 100 thousand people would gather in the square. Even if the figure is exaggerated, the head of the front headquarters, former head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, General Omurbek Suvanaliev, promises to withdraw at least 50 thousand - the rally could turn out to be a very serious action.

President Bakiyev and his entourage take the opposition's plans seriously, but calmly. They are trying to be proactive, proposing to create a “government of people's trust.” This is probably the idea that Mr. Bakiyev will voice on TV today. Some “reformist” leaders hope to receive an invitation to join the government. One of them, the ex-minister of industry in the Kulova government and the current main negotiator with the president, Almazbek Atambayev, is counting on the post of prime minister. Kyrgyz politics are bizarre. Just five months ago, on October 21, 2006, Mr. Atambayev, calling on the opposition to go to the barricades in November, declared: “Kurmanbek Bakiyev is a political corpse. Why revive him? I see no point in negotiating with him, he is mired in lies and hypocrisy...”

It is impossible to predict how the relationship between the president and the future prime minister will develop if this post is taken by a temperamental ex-minister and how long he will remain in office. It is unclear whether the coalition government will be a cabinet of technocrats who can ensure the implementation of reforms, or whether the seats in it will be occupied by opposition leaders. It depends on the oppositionists themselves: whether they risk taking responsibility themselves or whether they want to delegate specialists to the government. Former director of the Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of Kyrgyzstan, Valentin Bogatyrev, called the principle according to which “politicians meddle in places where they cannot work” “wrong.” The political scientist believes that the cooperation proposed by Bakiyev to the “reformists” will weaken the position of the Kulova “front-line soldiers”, since it will leave them on the sidelines of the next constitutional process with their radical demands for early presidential elections.

The leaders of the front do not think so, and the split in the opposition camp does not frighten them. General Suvanaliev, whom, according to him, almost the entire staff of the capital’s police force and 800 retired officers of the Ministry of Internal Affairs are guided by, is confident in his abilities. And “front-line soldiers” call the president’s compromise proposals “chattering of the process and the desire to cause confusion in our ranks.” Moreover, the general promises to “tighten the demands of the front if flirting with the so-called opposition continues.” Talks about creating a coalition government, according to “front-line soldiers,” are already leading to demoralization of the current cabinet, whose members are counting the days until their resignation. “There is a crisis of power,” says the head of the Kulova headquarters.

Arkady DUBNOV