Translated material
Divide and rule
Divide and fight. The State Duma agreed with the idea of the Ministry of Finance how to save the money of the Stabilization Fund from constant attempts to "invest" it. Last week, amendments to the Budget Code were adopted in the second reading. The stabilization fund must be turned into two others - for future generations and a reserve fund. If it works out, of course.
— How do they share —
According to the plan of the Ministry of Finance, the volume of the reserve fund should be fixed at the level of 10% of GDP and will be used to finance current budget expenditures. The fund for future generations will receive money only after filling the reserve fund. Next year, the fund will inherit 637 billion rubles from the Stabilization Fund. The tax base for fund replenishment will also be significantly expanded. Now, gas taxes will be added to the proceeds from the export customs duty on oil and the tax on its production.
But it seems that not all the plans of the department of Alexei Kudrin are destined to come true. Replenishment of the fund of future generations is unlikely. The fact is that the proceeds from the export of oil and gas will not be enough for the declared standard for maintaining the reserve fund at the level of 10% of GDP. In turn, the budget surplus from next year will be purely formal and will not exceed 0.5% of GDP. Plus, the average annual oil prices (according to the Ministry of Finance) will fluctuate between $50-53 per barrel. Thus, it will not be enough to replenish the reserve fund. Why, then, did the Ministry of Finance start the reorganization of the Stabilization Fund?
It turns out that the task of the “fund reform” is only one - to preserve the previously accumulated. According to the current rules, the fund should contain at least 500 billion rubles. The rest can be spent. The new fund will be able to take all the accumulated reserves to date.
Alfa-Bank President Pyotr Aven said that the state managed to form the Stabilization Fund only due to the fact that "the reality in the commodity markets constantly exceeded the government's expectations." Now this resource is practically exhausted. However, the Ministry of Finance secured itself in case the golden rain continues to fall on the Russian budget. This money should be absorbed by the fund of future generations, which will be able to really receive income only at high oil and gas prices. In fact, the Ministry of Finance seeks to allocate an increasing part of the income from taxation of production and export of hydrocarbons from the budget and thereby reduce dependence on oil prices.
- How to spend -
How and when can the funds from the new funds be spent? The government explains that the funds of the reserve fund were originally intended to cover part of the budget deficit in the event of a decrease in its revenues. As for the fund for future generations, there is less clarity. Petr Aven believes that the less the state will spend the reserved funds, the better. After all, even spending, for example, the future generations fund on the payment of pensions will only hinder the implementation of a real pension reform. In an interview with The New Times correspondent, Boris Nemtsov called the government's methods of using the Stabilization Fund "non-strategic": "They are guided by momentary considerations, seeking only to plug holes."
According to Nemtsov, the only mechanism that will make it possible to effectively use the fund for future generations could be a sharp increase in the fund to a trillion dollars. And it must be replenished not only with windfall profits from oil and gas, but also by selling the lion's share of state property, for example.