Translated material
Conciliatory Frost
Ukraine faces early elections or a protracted conflict
Yesterday, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine continued the hearing of the case on the constitutionality of President Viktor Yushchenko’s decree on the dissolution of the Rada and holding early parliamentary elections on May 27, which began a week ago. Yushchenko decided to dissolve parliament on April 2; from that day on, an open confrontation unfolded in Ukraine between the president and the ruling parliamentary coalition led by Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. Yesterday, the building of the Constitutional Court, heavily guarded by the special unit of the Ministry of Internal Affairs "Berkut", was surrounded by "white-blue" and "orange" demonstrators. Supporters of the coalition demanded the cancellation of the presidential decree ; the opposition, which rallied around the president, on the contrary, insisted on the legality of the dissolution of the Rada.The fateful verdict of the Constitutional Court could be delivered as early as this week. Yesterday the court questioned representatives of the Rada, the government and the Central Election Commission. After this, the hearings will be held behind closed doors. Some judges would not mind stepping away from solving the scandalous problem. Yesterday, Judge Vladimir Kampo proposed to adopt a resolution to terminate the hearing of the case as “outside the jurisdiction of the Constitutional Court”, since it is purely political. The Constitutional Court is prohibited from interfering in politics, including the activities of the Cabinet of Ministers and the Rada, Mr. Campo claims. The chairman of the court, Ivan Dombrovsky, said that the ruling could only be considered in the closed part of the hearings - the judges “will return to this when the time comes.”
Yesterday, Viktor Yanukovych tried for two hours to convince Viktor Yushchenko that it was in his interests to work out a compromise solution even before the verdict of the Constitutional Court was adopted. The Prime Minister believes that the verdict will not be in favor of the Orange. The ruling coalition categorically rejects the compromise proposed by the president on the condition of early elections. Reconciliation can only be achieved “taking into account the decision of the Constitutional Court,” the activities of which the parties “do not have the right to neutralize,” explained Raisa Bogatyreva, coordinator of the parliamentary majority.
Rada Speaker Alexander Moroz yesterday spoke in detail about how he sees the plan for a “peaceful settlement.” He proposed signing a “memorandum of reconciliation and cooperation”, where the parties undertake to accept the verdict of the Constitutional Court for execution, “whatever it may be.” The parties must declare a “cessation of the escalation of the conflict,” including the return home of all protest participants, committing to “resolving the crisis through compromise.”
The speaker proposes to suspend or cancel the presidential decree until the Constitutional Court makes a decision. If the court recognizes the president's decision as constitutional, the election campaign will be postponed to summer-autumn. If the verdict of the Constitutional Court is not in favor of the president, then the parliament undertakes in May to “consider and adopt” a number of laws that Yushchenko insisted on. We are talking about legislative amendments to the Rada regulations, which would prohibit the expansion of the coalition through individual membership. The list of extraordinary documents also included a new version of the election law, preparation of amendments to the constitution and the law on the cabinet of ministers, approval of laws on the referendum, the president, special investigative commissions, the opposition, the judicial system, and the status of judges. Alexander Moroz also proposes to approve at the legislative level the provisions of the “Universal of National Unity,” which coincides with the president’s pre-election Euro-Atlantic program. “Universal” appeared in August 2006 with the appointment of Yanukovych to the post of prime minister, but it did not lead to the unity of the two rival political camps .
Obviously, the “orange”’s attempt to carry out a lightning-fast operation to dissolve the Rada failed and the president will have to compromise. The Central Election Commission admitted yesterday that preparations for the early elections on May 27 are being disrupted. Deputy head of the Central Election Commission Maria Stavniychuk said that district commissions should have been formed by April 6, but this has not been done to this day. The CEC also does not have lists of political parties to participate in the elections. However, the CEC still cannot hold meetings due to the lack of a quorum: yesterday five members of the commission were on sick leave, eight are working, and the decisions of the CEC are considered legitimate only if 10 of the 13 members of the commission took part in the meeting.
“The president will not agree to give up the demand for early elections under the terms of the coalition,” Ukrainian political scientist Vadim Karasev told Vremya Novostei. “If the coalition does not compromise, the crisis is unlikely to be resolved.” In this case, the parties will turn to harsh methods of struggle, and the situation may get out of control. A protracted conflict threatens to discredit all Ukrainian political forces. Judge Campo's proposal to withdraw the Constitutional Court from the political game, the expert believes, was provoked by the presidential side, but it is too late to implement this scenario. According to VN’s interlocutor, a compromise is now being sought between the president and the prime minister, and the verdict of the Constitutional Court “will be a reflection of this compromise.”