Baghdad Mirage

To get help in Iraq, the Americans took advantage of Russia's idea

The Iraqis responded by continuing violence to the results of a major international conference held on May 3-4 in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh and dedicated to resolving the situation in Iraq. Yesterday in the southwest of the Iraqi capital, at least 30 people were killed in a Shiite neighborhood, where a car bomb exploded next to vegetable stalls. The day before yesterday, a suicide bomber drove a car into a base in Baghdad where Iraqi recruits were training, killing 15 soldiers. American losses after yesterday's death of three military personnel reached 3,365 people.

Of course, no one expected that foreign ministers from a couple of dozen countries would gather and peace would immediately come to the warring country. But the event was so widely advertised by the Americans, who were suffering setbacks in Iraq, that they involuntarily imagined a breakthrough, which, alas, upon closer examination turned out to be a mirage. The US Republican administration, which came under fire from Democrats because of the Iraq war, really wanted to demonstrate progress. But in reality, the Americans only acknowledged their own powerlessness in solving complex international problems.

This was the main positive result of the conference, because the inability of the United States alone to cope with the crises in the Middle East prompted the Americans to engage in active dialogue with their G8 colleagues and the states of the region, including problematic Iran and Syria. This is exactly what Russia called for, which a few years ago was the first to come up with the idea of ​​holding a serious international conference on Iraq. So the very fact of holding the event is a plus. Moreover, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who participated in it, there is an agreement to hold an even broader conference on the Iraqi theme this fall in Istanbul.

True, a “but” immediately arose in the form of a clarification made by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. He believes that new meetings in such a broad composition “make sense” only if the participants fulfill the agreements enshrined in the International Agreement on Iraq signed at the conference, nicknamed by diplomats the “compact” (from English “agreement”). The five-year document was developed under the guidance of UN officials. It covers all possible areas where Iraqis need support: security, political transition, economics, human rights. Journalists in their comments quickly picked up the topic of financial assistance to Iraq from this list, and the organizers themselves declared that one of the achievements was that the international community promised the new Iraqi government a total of $30 billion in the form of gratuitous assistance and written off debts.

Members of the Russian delegation, having heard this figure, only smiled skeptically and wondered where it came from. This is not the first time that Iraqis have been promised fabulous money, but the unstable situation is slowing down the flow of donor assistance, as well as preventing businessmen from investing in the destroyed oil and gas complex, although the new “Petroleum Law” encouraging this has already been submitted by the government to the Iraqi parliament for consideration these days. Specific figures were also announced: the European Union will give 100 million euros, and the UK - 100 million pounds sterling. This is in addition to previously promised assistance, for example, the British previously cited the figure of 744 million pounds sterling, although it remains a mystery how much of this has actually reached Iraq at this point.

Moscow is ready to talk only about writing off part of Iraq’s foreign debt, accumulated since Soviet times and amounting, according to various estimates, from 8 to 10 billion dollars. Three years ago, Russia, following the example of other G8 countries, pledged to restructure this debt, which implies the write-off of most of it according to the rules of the Paris Club. However, employees of the Iraqi Embassy in Russia drew the attention of the Vremya Novostey newspaper to the fact that while all other major powers have already “signed the necessary bilateral agreements with Iraq on debt forgiveness, Russia still has not.”

Why the delay? Russian journalists asked Sergei Lavrov about this, who arrived in Egypt only on the second day of the conference, when mainly political issues were discussed. Those gathered talked about money on the first day, although it would have been more logical to do the opposite: first discuss a political settlement, and only then provide assistance to the unfortunate country. Regarding the Iraqi debt, Mr. Lavrov answered in an oriental florid way: “There is no connection with any conditions other than the rules of the Paris Club. In parallel with this, there is such a question as respect for signed contracts.”

In the second half of the 1990s, when Iraq was still ruled by Saddam Hussein, the Russians signed contracts in Baghdad for the construction of pipelines and the development of oil and gas fields. Among them, the giant West Qurna-2 deposit obtained by LUKOIL stands out. Some of the new Iraqi leaders believe that Russian businesses should be deprived of the right to work in Iraq, thereby punishing Moscow for its tough anti-war position and for its ties to the dictator overthrown in 2003 by the Americans and executed with their knowledge at the end of 2006.

Of course, the themes of debt and these contracts are different, but there is a feeling that there is a connection. This will likely become the subject of negotiations between the foreign ministers of the two countries - Sergei Lavrov and Hoshyar Zebari - in the near future in Moscow. As Mr. Zebari’s advisers told VN, he is soon going on a visit to Russia. Unfortunately, in Sharm el-Sheikh, conflicting ministers' schedules prevented them from holding their planned separate meeting.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of one of the main creditor countries of Iraq, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, did not announce an immediate write-off of Iraqi debts. Prince Saud al-Faisal only called on Baghdad for “political reforms,” but not a word about the 15 billion debt (according to other sources - 19 billion). There is an assumption that Sunni Muslims in Saudi Arabia are unhappy that the Shiite Muslims who came to power in Iraq (they make up two-thirds of the Iraqi population, and in neighboring Iran they are the majority) underestimate the experience of the Sunnis who ruled the country under Saddam. The Kingdom believes that reforms could secure this opportunity for the Sunnis, and then we can talk about debt forgiveness, for which Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has already been invited to visit Saudi Arabia.

There was greater agreement between the conference participants on issues of politics and security. To the delight of the Americans, the final declaration did not mention a deadline by which foreign troops must leave Iraq. And Sergei Lavrov even noted in his speech that “in the current conditions, the presence of coalition troops in Iraq is one of the stabilizing factors preventing the country from sliding into the chaos of a full-scale internecine war. Their hasty and unprepared withdrawal is fraught with negative consequences.” At the same time, the minister noted, “the foreign military presence in Iraq should not drag on indefinitely, and Russia, like many other countries, advocates a well-thought-out schedule for the withdrawal of multinational forces from Iraq.”

Elena SUPONINA, Sharm el-Sheikh - Moscow