The economic sanctions that Russia imposes or threatens to impose against post-Soviet states whose policies the Russian authorities do not like bring us neither economic nor political benefits. Therefore, before “punishing” unwanted neighbors in a jingoistic frenzy, it is fundamentally important to calculate the consequences of such punishment for ourselves and for those whom we are trying to protect in this way.
Upon the return of a group of Russian deputies from Estonia, Nikolai Kovalev, chairman of the Duma Committee on Veterans Affairs and former head of the FSB, who led the delegation, gave a press conference. He was asked whether it was worth introducing economic sanctions against Estonia for moving the monument to the Bronze Soldier and the remains of Soviet soldiers buried under it from the center of Tallinn to a military cemetery. And deputy Kovalev, who can hardly be suspected of loyalty to the Estonian authorities or lack of patriotism, answered directly: “No.” In his opinion, sanctions would harm the Russian-speaking population of Estonia. Against the backdrop of this extremely sensible and pragmatic response, Russia has already begun “sudden” repairs of the railway on the way to Estonia, and one large Russian retail chain announced its refusal to buy Estonian products, which, by the way, having been buying food there constantly for more than one year, I didn't see it there.
Meanwhile, Russia’s economic sanctions against the former Soviet republics have never yet led to the desired results, if we consider as such an improvement in attitude towards our country or the economic collapse of regimes we dislike. They forbade Georgian citizens from entering Russia , declaring a transport blockade on our historically friendly neighboring country - Georgian citizens began en masse to receive citizenship of neighboring Armenia and, with it, freely and completely legally enter Russian territory. And the consequences of politically motivated bans on the import of goods from countries that Moscow does not like were once very accurately expressed by Georgian Minister of Economy Kakha Bendukidze, who has thoroughly studied the Russian economy and political mores from the inside over the years of doing business in Russia. He told Georgian producers something like this: “Imagine that Russia does not exist, and in its place is the sea. You don’t trade with the sea.” Traders are simply looking for new markets.
I don’t know whether the soul of our patriots is warmed by the thought that after Russian sanctions or the transition to market prices in mutual trade, poor Georgia with Moldova or Ukraine with Belarus have become even poorer. Just think for yourself: will the one you are trying to ruin treat the ruiner with reverence and respect?
Yes, if we take Estonia, trade with Russia is very important for it: we are Tallinn’s largest economic partner outside the European Union. But exactly what is “beyond”. Estonia is not such a large country that the EU could not help it compensate for possible losses from Russian sanctions without compromising pan-European macroeconomic stability. In addition, residents of Estonia, unlike residents of Georgia or Ukraine, are not at all eager to enter the Russian labor market and are not eager to obtain Russian citizenship. Moreover, no visible migration of the Russian-speaking population of Estonia to Russia has been observed in the 16 years since the collapse of the USSR. This means that, apparently, the Russian-speaking residents of this Baltic country are no less satisfied with life there than in Russia. If, with the help of sanctions, we hope to make Russian-speaking Estonians poor and complete political outcasts in their country, they are unlikely to like such “help” from the Russian authorities.
Resentment in modern politics is an inconvertible currency. Other countries can only be punished in such a way that there is some sense in this punishment. In the meantime, the population of those countries against whom we imposed or were going to introduce sanctions only rallied more closely around their authorities and began to better understand why these authorities do not get along well with the Russian one. Punishing without knowing what exactly you want from the “guilty”, and this is exactly how the current Russian foreign policy is structured, is doubly absurd.
...Now just imagine that the Estonian authorities would oppose the dismantling or moving of any monument on Russian territory (we seem to have forgotten that the monument to the Bronze Soldier and the graves under it are not destroyed in Estonia, but only moved). That Estonians would begin to picket the Russian Embassy in Tallinn about this and try not to let the Russian ambassador leave the building. Isn’t it true, Russian patriots would be the first to twirl their fingers at their temples in such a case...