Foreign chosen ones

Russians believe that they will not be allowed to honestly choose parliament

According to opinion polls, Russian citizens believe that the State Duma elections in December will be falsified and will not reflect the will of the people. Moreover, at the moment, only two parties overcome the barrier of 7% - United Russia and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. But the decline in the legitimacy of parliament, according to analysts, does not yet threaten to worsen relations between the government and the people. Although experts remind that the well-known events in Ukraine began with a lack of confidence among the population in the results of the elections, however, presidential, not parliamentary.

The majority of citizens surveyed in April by the Levada Center expect abuses in the State Duma elections. The Duma elections will be rigged by regional election commissions - more than a third (39%) of citizens think so. Another third of respondents note that voters will be bribed by the authorities (33%) or the opposition (30%). 26% of citizens fear exclusion from the lists of candidates undesirable to the authorities. The same number talk about giving the parties in power advantages in the election campaign and removing undesirable parties from elections. 23% expect fraud on the part of the Central Election Commission. And only 8% of respondents believe in the purity of future Duma elections.

At the same time, 40% of Russians believe that parliamentary elections will fully reflect the will of the people, and 45% think the opposite. A third of those surveyed will not consider the next composition of the State Duma to be a legitimate government body, and 65% want to return the “against all” column to elections. According to the Levada Center, in 2004 there were 5% fewer supporters of this column.

Leading researcher at the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Dmitry Oreshkin, in a commentary to Vremya Novostey, noted that it will not be possible to maintain the “beautiful face” of the authorities: “Then there will be no guarantees of the “right” composition of the State Duma. Of the 40% of votes that United Russia gets in regional elections, 10-15% is the result of administrative resources. If you remove it, more will be lost. For example, if we give real freedom to the media.” At the same time, the lack of legitimacy of parliament, according to the analyst, does not bother anyone in Russia yet. “Moreover, everyone understands that the country does not live according to the law. Why then a legislature? - he reasons. - Nowadays, a decrease in trust in the authorities will not work in any way, but this approach carries long-term value dangers - the authorities lose trust and are completely disconnected from society. We must remember that the Maidan in Ukraine happened because people obviously did not believe in the integrity of the elections.”

According to party ratings measured by another sociological service, VTsIOM (All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion), if elections to the State Duma were held at the end of April, only two parties could count on entering parliament. There are also many undecided voters and those who are not going to vote at all. According to the survey results, it turned out that so far only United Russia and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation can count on a stable rating sufficient to overcome the 7 percent barrier and enter parliament. 44% of respondents are ready to vote for the party in power, 9% for the communists. All other parties so far show results below the 7 percent threshold. For example, A Just Russia has 6% of supporters, and the LDPR has 5%. The share of those who do not intend to go to the polls at all (17%) or find it difficult to choose (14%) is stable.

President of the Institute for Strategic Assessments Alexander Konovalov believes that the authorities have prepared a certain scenario. “For the mass voter, “United Russia” will be brought into the Duma, for lovers of quasi-socialist slogans - “A Just Russia”, for liberals a “Civil Force” has been created,” he told Vremya Novostey. — Dmitry Rogozin will most likely not be allowed to turn around this time, because his “Great Russia” is not a Kremlin project, as was the case with “Motherland.” Also, according to the analyst, the presence of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and, possibly, the Union of Right Forces is expected in the future Duma. “But when a leader loses power, and this inevitably happens to a president at the end of his term, all three parties in power can start fighting among themselves in earnest and damage the invented scenario,” Mr. Konovalov believes.

Daria GUSEVA