Erosion of trust

Prosperous Armenia performed worse than expected

On Sunday, the Central Election Commission of Armenia summed up the preliminary results of the elections to the new National Assembly of the republic. As expected by the Vremya Novostei newspaper , the overwhelming majority of seats in parliament will be taken by two pro-government parties - the Republican Party and Prosperous Armenia, which together received almost 40% of the votes.

Third place was taken by the Social Democratic Party Dashnaktsutyun, created 117 years ago (13% of the votes). The list is completed by two opposition parties - “Orinats Yerkir” (“Country of Law” – 7%) and “Heritage” (5.7%).

Opposition representatives reported violations during the elections. But the current speaker, Tigran Torosyan, called the voting “unprecedentedly transparent.” Mr. Torosyan, who is deputy chairman of the Republican Party, has every reason to be jubilant: with a turnout of 60% of voters, the party received more than 33% of the vote. Other participants in the election process believe that the Republicans' success was supported by "administrative resources." Since the spring of this year, the Republican Party has been headed by ex-Minister of Defense and now Prime Minister of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan , for whom success in parliamentary elections is a stepping stone to the 2008 presidential elections.

The two-fold gap between the Republican Party and Prosperous Armenia is relatively unexpected. The latter is headed by the richest businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, but the party was positioned as a project of Robert Kocharyan, whose second presidential term is expiring. In polls, Prosperous Armenia tied for first place with the Republicans, their parity giving rise to predictions about Mr. Kocharyan's future role in Armenian politics. This question will apparently remain the main intrigue of the coming months. However, the indicators of all parties will still be slightly adjusted after the results of voting in single-mandate constituencies are summed up - out of 131 seats in parliament, 41 are assigned to single-mandate constituencies.

The two opposition parties combined received more than 12% of the votes. Both of them support the European integration of Armenia. True, part of the radical opposition suspects that the leader of Orinats Yerkir, Artur Baghdasaryan, although he went to the Maidan in Kyiv several years ago, retained connections with the ruling circles even after leaving the post of speaker of parliament. In its previous composition, this party was part of the ruling coalition and joined the opposition only a year ago.

“Heritage” is headed by the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia, a native of California, Raffi Hovhannisyan. The party advocates the abandonment of complementary policies towards Russia, European integration and Armenia's entry into NATO.

The strengthening of pro-Western forces in parliament (the first meeting will take place on May 31) is symptomatic, although it does not mean a quick change in the status of Armenia as Russia’s main strategic partner in the South Caucasus. “There is a gradual erosion of trust in Russia,” noted Hmayak Oganesyan, a non-party member of the former parliament and political scientist, to VN. “We consider the government’s course towards partnership with Russia to be correct, but this partnership raises more and more questions, the answer to which Armenia has to look for on its own,” one of the leaders of Dashnaktsutyun, vice-speaker of the previous composition, said more harshly in an interview with VN National Assembly Vahan Hovhannisyan.

Ivan SUKHOV