Translated material
Wheat Chairman
The court will help Yanukovych in bargaining with Yushchenko
Yesterday, the Constitutional Court (CC) of Ukraine changed its political color - the chairman of the court, Ivan Dombrovsky, close to President Viktor Yushchenko, resigned of his own free will. His place was taken by Valery Pshenichny, close to the ruling parliamentary coalition. This replacement greatly increased the likelihood that the court would declare the presidential decree on the dissolution of parliament and early elections illegal . The ruling coalition of the Rada, consisting of the Party of Regions, the Socialist Party and the Communist Party, expects that today the Constitutional Court will issue a verdict on the presidential decree. Communist Maria Markush has been appointed judge-reporter, which only increases the coalition’s chances of winning the legal battle.The President and the “orange” opposition are unlikely to recognize both the appointment of Mr. Pshenichny to the post of chairman of the court and the verdict itself as legal. At the end of April, Yushchenko dismissed Valery Pshenichny from the court “for violating the oath,” and judges Suzanna Stanik and Vladimir Ivashchenko were dismissed with the same wording. All three were appointed under the presidential quota by former leader Leonid Kuchma. However, on May 10, the Donetsk district court suspended the decrees on the dismissal of constitutional judges, after which on May 16, the Donetsk Court of Appeal overturned this decision. Deputy head of the presidential secretariat Igor Pukshin warned that decisions of the Constitutional Court, in the approval of which dismissed judges will take part, will be illegal.
Ukrainian political scientist Vladimir Malinkovich suggested in a conversation with Vremya Novostey: “The Constitutional Court will recognize the presidential decree as unconstitutional within a week. It’s not just about Dombrovsky’s departure, but also about the radical sentiments of the judge-reporter from the Communist Party.” The president will not agree with the decision, but the coalition will have a strong argument to “force Yushchenko to compromise on the date of the elections” - the president is in a hurry to hold them in June, and the coalition would like to postpone the elections until the fall. The expert predicts thata compromise election date will be set for September 23.
In addition, the coalition does not want to participate in the elections on the basis of a presidential decree, since this would give Yushchenko grounds to demand the abolition of the 2004 constitutional reform, which distributed presidential powers in favor of the Rada. The decision of the Constitutional Court will give the coalition a reason to demand that the president suspend the decree on the dissolution of the Rada in order to announce self-dissolution. And then early elections will be held on the basis of Article 90 of the constitution, “and not at the discretion of the president,” notes Mr. Malinkovich.
The leaders of the “regions” are making opposing statements regarding the elections. On May 16, Prime Minister and leader of the Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych said that he was not at all sure whether early elections would take place. On the same day, his comrade-in-arms Rinat Akhmetov assured the media that the “regionals” support early elections, since refusing them is tantamount to a split in the state. Akhmetov and Yanukovych are playing “good and evil investigator” with the president in order to achieve a postponement of the election date to the fall, explained “regional” Taras Chornovil. A couple more weeks of the crisis and the president will agree “to all the conditions of the coalition,” socialist Jaroslav Mendus is sure. To increase pressure on Yushchenko, the speaker of the Rada, socialist Alexander Moroz, promised that parliament would pass bills that would narrow presidential powers. If the president does not sign these laws, they will come into force in 15 days signed by Mr. Moroz himself.
“Yanukovych, with the help of his allies - the Socialist Party and the Communist Party - is delaying negotiations in order to negotiate favorable conditions for early elections,” Vladimir Polokhalo, a Ukrainian political scientist and Rada deputy from the opposition “orange” Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, told VN. The expert believes that although the “regionals” insist on holding elections on October 28, they are ready to agree to September, since their political resources have already been exhausted. Our interlocutor believes that Speaker Moroz is bargaining with the Party of Regions - “he is confident that elections are inevitable, but wants guarantees of the creation of a single bloc with the Regions, since the Socialist Party has no chance of overcoming the three percent barrier.”
On Wednesday, Yushchenko and Yanukovych agreed to extend for a couple of days the work of the working group created by their decision to prepare early parliamentary elections. Deputy Head of the Presidential Secretariat Ivan Vasyunik believes that the group can complete its work today by presenting a ready-made package of bills. However, the leader of the Communist Party, Pyotr Symonenko, believes that it may take several weeks to agree on all issues, because it is necessary to prepare “a legislative framework for more than one year.”
If the negotiations reach a dead end, this will “greatly weaken the president,” Ukrainian political scientist Viktor Nebozhenko told VN. In this case, the resolution of the crisis will depend on three or four leading politicians, as well as the most influential oligarchic groups. Nebozhenko believes that Ukraine in this case could repeat the Russian version of 1996, when the power of President Yeltsin weakened and “seven oligarchs controlled the country.” At the same time, a violent scenario cannot be ruled out in the event of an arrest or assassination attempt on one of the leaders of the warring parties.