Limits of improvement

The government approved a new procedure for regulating gas prices

The press service of the Russian government last Friday announced the signing of a resolution “On improving state regulation of gas prices.” It officially enshrines the idea of ​​officials about equal profitability from 2011 on supplies of gas produced by Gazprom and its affiliates to the domestic and foreign markets. And the responsibilities for developing and approving the price formula at which gas will be supplied in four years are assigned to the Federal Tariff Service. So far this has not been possible. Firstly, due to the fact that it is simply difficult to compile it physically, since there is no clear and transparent “external” gas price . Secondly, due to contradictions between Gazprom and the main gas consumer represented by RAO UES of Russia, which cannot agree on the terms of concluding long-term contracts. Moreover, we are talking not only and not so much about commercial disagreements. The very mechanism of introducing long-term obligations in a monopoly market does not look viable, since all risks associated with changes in the macroeconomic situation (due to which the demand for gas increases or decreases) fall on the consumer and are not shared with the supplier.

At the same time, the resolution did not include a chart of gas price increases between 2007 and 2010, which appeared in its draft. It was supposed to fix annual price indexation by an average of 26.8% (in 2008 it should take place once, in 2009 and 2010 - every six months). However, this schedule, discussed at a government meeting on November 30 last year, was included in the forecast of socio-economic development for the next three years, which, in turn, was approved by the government a month and a half ago. Nevertheless, the fact that indexation is not firmly established leaves room for doubt that such rates will be maintained, given that the new president and, most likely, a new government will have to manage the economy in the new price conditions.

In addition, the resolution spells out Gazprom’s idea of ​​increased coefficients for “new” consumers (see Vremya Novostei, May 25) . This category, in addition to those who are just planning to connect to the gas supply system, includes consumers who intend to increase the purchase of gas, as well as those who will receive additional volumes due to the expansion of the gas transportation system. Thus, the hated by Gazprom rule on paying for so-called above-limit gas at a price with coefficients of 1.6 (in winter) and 1.1 (in summer) is canceled. From July 1, 2007, all “new” gas will cost 60% more than the limit (that is, recorded in the gas balance), next year - by 50%. In the first half of 2009 - by 40%, in the second - by 30%. For 2010, two coefficients are also provided: in the first six months 20%, and then 10%.

Opponents of this system, represented by German Gref, who promised to fight against consumer discrimination to the last, were ignored. The resolution signed by Mikhail Fradkov makes it possible to increase prices to the mythical level of equal profitability and at the same time postpones the process of real reform of the gas market. The fourth point in it contains an eloquent instruction about this: “The Ministry of Industry and Energy of the Russian Federation, together with the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of the Russian Federation and the Federal Tariff Service, prepare and, before January 1, 2009, submit to the government of the Russian Federation proposals on the feasibility of the transition from January 1, 2011 from state regulation of gas prices to state regulation of tariffs for gas transportation services through main gas pipelines on the territory of the Russian Federation.”

Considering that officials do not have a sane recipe for how to make the price formula work, the picture is unflattering. On the one hand, the liberalization of gas prices by 2011 has been declared. On the other hand, there is a gas production crisis that will occur in Russia at the beginning of the next decade, when there will be nothing to compensate for the drop in gas production at Soviet giant fields. The likelihood that Gazprom will not have time to “raise” new gas-producing provinces (the Yamal Peninsula and the Barents Sea shelf) by this time is very high. Therefore, a sharp increase in prices is a simple recipe for reducing consumption in the country. A reduction that is unlikely to benefit economic growth, and most importantly, is unlikely to solve systemic problems in the gas industry.

Alexey GRIVACHS