According to Levada Center measurements, since the end of last year the trust ratings of the two deputy prime ministers have been steadily growing and practically coincided, and in February Ivanov, having become the first deputy, pulled ahead (24% against 21%). And then the curves of the two ratings described a kind of loop. Ivanov's rating grew from 22% in March to 25% in April, returning to its original position by May. Medvedev, on the contrary, "sagged" from 20% to 18%, and by May almost caught up with Ivanov (21%). Alexey Grazhdankin, deputy general director of Levada Center, explains these fluctuations by the change in information policy in the country: in March-April Ivanov was shown more than in previous months.

This is confirmed by the media mention rates of the two likely successors. According to the information and analytical system “Medialogia”, if in March there were 3488 reports about Ivanov in 3000 leading media outlets, and 3826 about Medvedev, then in April the mention rate of Ivanov rose to 4525, and Medvedev fell to 2458. In May, there were fewer reports about Ivanov, and the gap narrowed (3323 versus 2205).

Ivanov's promotion in February launched a "race for succession" between him and Medvedev, and Putin's Munich speech changed the rhetoric from social to military-foreign policy and brought Ivanov, who is responsible for the military-industrial complex, to the top of the airwaves, explains TV presenter Vladimir Solovyov. One of the employees of the federal TV channel told Vedomosti that in mid-May, journalists were instructed to show Ivanov a little less and talk more about the event itself: "The management explained that Ivanov had been "cheated" too much."

In May, interest in successors has decreased: Putin is leaving, and any of them will look paler than the president, who, with one phrase about how there is no one to talk to after Mahatma Gandhi, draws all the attention to himself, notes Solovyov. Balancing successors allows the Kremlin to protect Putin from the status of a “lame duck” until the very end, believes political scientist Alexei Makarkin. The expert predicts that the effect of uncertainty will allow the Kremlin not to reveal its cards until the results of the parliamentary elections in December.

Ivanova was a bit “blown away”