| New hypothesis for the start of the war
June 22, 1941 is one of the most terrible dates in the life of our people. And it’s not even about the colossal losses that have no analogue in Russian and world history in the first days of the war - human, territorial, military equipment, and not about the battles that followed and the incredible hardships of the four-year mortal battle that paid for our people’s victory in it . The question always remained: how could this happen in June 1941, in a country where everything was subordinated to defense? Who is responsible for this? There is no answer to this question yet. The newspaper “Vremya Novostei” publishes chapters from Alexander Osokin’s book “The Great Secret of the Great Patriotic War. A new hypothesis of the beginning of the war", which will soon be published by the Vremya publishing house.
"It's time to intervene in European affairs"
On April 17, 1941, Stalin, unexpectedly for everyone, came to the station for the first time in his life to see off a representative of a foreign state - Japanese Foreign Minister Matsuoka. At the same time, he hugged a foreign representative for the first time. The most amazing thing is that he embraced the German Ambassador Count Schulenburg, who was participating in the farewell to Matsuoka, and also firmly shook the hand of the acting German military attache in Moscow, Colonel Krebs. “We must remain friends and will do everything for this,” he said.
<...>On May 4, 1941, an extraordinary event occurred: Stalin, by decision of the Politburo, assumed the duties of Chairman of the Council of People's Commissars - the head of the Soviet government, which only the highest circle of initiates in the USSR knew about on that day.
On May 5, 1941, Stalin gave a specific speech to graduates of military academies at a reception in the Kremlin. In it, he unexpectedly announced that the USSR would wage not a defensive, but an offensive war, for which the country was ready. He also said that preparing politically for war means choosing the right allies. This is precisely how he explained the enormous successes of Germany (whose, although not participating in hostilities, the USSR had been an ally since August 1939). Stalin did not identify the future enemy, but allowed himself to name the secret figure for the number of Soviet divisions - more than 300, which is why the speech was not published (by the way, it has not been published to this day and is known only from retellings, as well as from notes made later from the memory of the participants of this reception). Stalin also emphasized that one must be prepared for any surprises. Subsequently, before the start of the war, this motif was repeated many times by Soviet propaganda. It should also be noted that Hitler, speaking on April 27 or 29, 1941 before the officer corps, according to other sources, before graduates of military schools, said: “In the near future, events will occur that will seem incomprehensible to many.” On April 28, Hitler received the German Ambassador to the USSR Schulenburg, on April 30 Schulenburg and the USSR Ambassador to Germany Dekanozov returned to Moscow, and on May 1 Dekanozov stood next to the leader on the podium of the Mausoleum, possibly telling him news from Berlin. By the way, on May 4, Hitler gave a keynote speech in the Reichstag, where for some reason he did not even mention the USSR.
For obvious reasons, all the hints and allegories of Stalin’s speech delivered on May 5, after the beginning, and even more so after the end of the Great Patriotic War, were interpreted in the memoirs by those who heard it as a warning from the leader about the inevitability of the upcoming battle with Nazi Germany, although in fact In fact, its content was far from so clear. We should not forget that in 1939, the leadership of the USSR and Germany signed not only the Non-Aggression Pact and the Treaty of Friendship and Border, but also a joint statement against the “warmongers”, which said: “... Elimination of the real war between Germany on the one hand and England and France on the other hand would meet the interests of all peoples. Therefore, both Governments will direct their common efforts, if necessary, in agreement with other friendly powers, in order to achieve this goal as quickly as possible. If, however, these efforts of both Governments remain unsuccessful, then the fact will be established that England and France are responsible for the continuation of the war, and in the event of a continuation of the war, the Governments of Germany and the USSR will consult each other on the necessary measures.
And by the time Stalin delivered his speech, this war had been going on for almost two years! Therefore, the perception of Stalin’s speech on May 5, 1941 by the German side is of particular interest.
In his memoirs, Advisor to the German Embassy in pre-war Moscow Gustav Hilger (a very informed person, participant and translator in almost all Soviet-German negotiations at the highest level) writes: “On May 5, 1941, a reception was held in the Kremlin for young graduates of 16 Red Army academies. According to reports available at the embassy, Stalin gave a speech at this banquet in which he emphasized the superiority of German military potential over the Soviet one, which, according to our informants, clearly wanted to prepare listeners for the need for a compromise with Germany. This was sharply contradicted by the messages that were given to me already during the war by three captured senior Soviet officers who were also present at this reception. According to them, the head of the department of military academies of the USSR, Lieutenant General Khozin, wanted to make a toast to the peaceful policy of the USSR, to which Stalin reacted sharply negatively, saying that now this defensive slogan must be put to an end, because it is outdated, although under this slogan the Soviet Union and managed to advance its borders far in the north and west and increase its population by 13 million people. However, now this will not acquire another inch of land.
The Red Army, he said, must get used to the idea that peaceful politics is over and the era of expanding the front of socialism by force has begun. Anyone who does not recognize this is a philistine and a fool. We must finally put an end to the praise of the German army.
I have never been able to get a reliable explanation of the difference between these two messages. The correctness of the officers' information is evidenced by the fact that their stories coincided with each other, although they had no opportunity to coordinate their testimony with each other in advance. Therefore, it is permissible to assume that Stalin deliberately arranged for the first message to fall into the hands of the embassy, and thus Hitler would be given proof of his peace-loving policy...
Here is another impression of this speech, coming from the other side.
Major General A.Z., who was captured by the Germans. In 1942, Naumov allegedly relayed from memory during interrogation the words spoken by Stalin on May 5, 1941: “The war unfolding in Europe forces our country to actively intervene in the affairs of Europe. The German army has achieved such great success to date because it has not yet encountered a worthy opponent. All this time, she waged a war against small, weak states, which does not require special strategic abilities, so that some of our officers needlessly overestimate the successes of the German army. Let's see what the German army will be capable of when faced with a real enemy... The Soviet Union can be compared... to a ferocious beast of prey that lies in ambush, waiting for its prey, and then overtaking it in one leap. The day is not far when you will witness and participate in enormous social changes in the Balkans. The era of peaceful politics has ended, and a new era has begun - the era of expansion of the socialist front by force of arms...”
There is another version of this speech, during Stalin’s lifetime, prepared for publication in the collected works of his after the war, perhaps the largest in volume, but, naturally, edited to complete ideological sterility. Moreover, there are reports that the leader himself did not allow it to be published in the next volume of his works.<...>
On May 6, 1941, it became clear that Stalin made a speech to graduates of military academies while trying out his new role - chairman of the Council of People's Commissars, head of the Soviet government. The Decree of the Presidium of the Supreme Council on this appointment was announced on the radio on May 6, and it was published in Pravda on May 7.
There was not a single event within the country because of which Stalin could for the first time take such a serious step as officially assuming full power. Outside of it, there was also nothing that could push the leader to such a serious decision - no international conferences, no major negotiations. It remains to be assumed that war was expected (or rather, planned in advance). With whom? With Nazi Germany? But it is known that at that time Stalin was afraid of any, even minor, provocations that could cause discontent in Germany, he did not even allow the shooting down of German planes flying over our territory, etc., and suddenly he takes such a serious step. This means that for some reason he was not afraid that Hitler would misunderstand the fact of his appointment as Soviet premier. Most likely, precisely because Hitler was warned about this appointment, and because there was another war in mind - one that Stalin could secretly promise Hitler to wage together, and this war could only be against England, since America was far away and had not yet entered the war, and France and most of the countries of Europe had already been defeated or capitulated.
We should not forget that before this, England had done a lot to direct the edge of Nazi Germany’s aggression to the East. This is evidenced by the Munich meeting, held without the participation of the USSR, at which the Munich Agreement was signed; the “policy of non-intervention” of England and France in connection with the war in Spain; The “Phantom War” of 1939-1940, which led to the defeat of France, the withdrawal of British troops from the mainland and the occupation of most of Europe by German troops. England could have declared war on the USSR even after September 17, 1939, observing the guarantees given to Poland, which were violated by the invasion of the Soviet “liberation” troops, but for some reason did not do this, because then an open military alliance between Germany and the USSR against England would have become inevitable. (Interesting fact: Stalin, finding himself at one of the Kremlin receptions between two Igors - Moiseev and Ilyinsky, when asked to make a wish, said: “I want Hitler to strike England as soon as possible!” I. Moiseev told about this on September 3, 2000 in TV show by G. Borovik “Theater of Joseph Stalin.”)
Another remarkable fact: in 1940-1941, on the orders of Stalin, the USSR launched mass production of the newest MiG-3 fighter, designed for the most effective combat at an altitude of 7-9 kilometers, but at that time it was not German, but English aircraft that flew at such an altitude bombers. By the beginning of the war, 1,400 MiG-3s had been produced, and only 400 and 300 fighters, Yak-1 and LaGG-3, specialized in destroying German bombers, were produced. <...>
And here is one more detail that clarifies the relations between the USSR and Germany before the war itself: on Stalin’s instructions, a large number of Soviet transport ships (primarily previously belonging to the three Baltic republics, which only recently became part of the USSR, many of which did not even have time to change the Latin letters of their names on board) was transferred to Germany to participate in the upcoming landing in England (Operation Sea Lion).
<...>
On May 10, 1941 (four days after Stalin’s appointment as Chairman of the Council of People’s Commissars and on the first anniversary of Churchill’s appointment as Prime Minister!) a sensational event occurred that confused all the cards on the political gambling table of Europe: the first deputy Fuhrer for the party, Rudolf Hess, ended up in England. It was reported that he flew in a single-seat Me-110 fighter and landed with a parachute in Scotland. Berlin claimed that this was the act of a madman; Moscow seriously feared that Hess was carrying out a special order from Hitler. Hesitations in the Hitlerite leadership on the question of which direction their first main blow should have been delivered - towards the East or the West - had been going on for a long time, so it cannot be ruled out that Hess flew to England with a draft treaty on joint military operations against the USSR and, perhaps convincing the British, he spoke about the USSR’s agreement to carry out a landing in England together with Germany. Recently it was reported that one of the nine copies of Barbarossa was in Hess's safe; it is possible that he had a complete plan for the military actions of the Third Reich in accordance with Fuhrer Directive No. 21 of December 18, 1940 against both England and the USSR, one of the options, a special case (Fall “Barbarossa”) of which “Barbarossa” was. It is quite possible that, realizing the danger of such a development of events for England, Churchill deceived the Germans, signed this agreement and sent it to Hitler. And when Hitler struck the USSR, essentially opening a disastrous second front for himself, Churchill did not take any action against the USSR, but, on the contrary, immediately offered Stalin an alliance and all possible assistance. <...>
Stalin miscalculated
Having been recreated today based on various published materials (since there are no direct documents confirming it yet), the new hypothesis of the beginning of the Great Patriotic War proposed by the author of this book looks like this.
After Germany’s quick (almost lightning-fast) defeat of France in May-June 1940, Stalin realized that he had to immediately enter the Second World War, since otherwise he would subsequently have to deal with an enemy not exhausted by a long war, but strengthened by victories and the seizure of raw materials. bases Therefore, within a month he occupied the Baltic states, which, according to the 1939 treaty with Germany, became the sphere of interests of the USSR, taking Bukovina. He was not yet ready to fight against Hitler, and although he understood that a clash between the USSR and Nazi Germany was inevitable, he hoped to delay it until 1942. In addition, Stalin had to reorient himself in connection with the events that had just occurred in Europe. After the surrender of France in June 1940, Hitler could have seized documents about the intention of England and France during the Soviet-Finnish “winter” war to enter it on the side of Finland (to begin with, send a corps of 150 thousand people there, and then bomb the Baku oil fields) and probably presented them to Stalin. Perhaps only after this Stalin agreed to participate together with Germany in the landing operation in England, while his main goal was to withdraw his troops far to the West. In the author’s opinion, with this landing operation Stalin played out a win-win strategic option for himself: with the help of Germany, the fleet, parachute corps, marines and tank forces of the USSR participating in the landing ended up on the North Sea coast. At the same time, Stalin got the opportunity to actually land troops in England, or, what is much more likely, to come to an agreement with the British and strike Germany from the west, forming there instead of the Anglo-French front with its “strange war” of the 1939-1940 model, a very hot Soviet -Anglo-German front, that is, take Hitler in pincers. He would have explained his consent, given to Hitler for the landing of Soviet troops in England with the help of the Germans, to the new allies as a cunning maneuver against Hitler (something like Odysseus’s Trojan horse), which would have allowed him to ultimately receive moral and material support from the West and America and defeat Hitler, vigorously attacked from two sides.
But Stalin miscalculated in assessing Hitler’s capabilities and the ability of Western countries to resist Germany for a long time on the European continent, since he expected that the forces of the opposing sides would be approximately equal, which is why the war would turn into a long and positional one, as happened during the First World War. ..
Allies against England?
To assess the fundamental possibility of creating a military alliance between Hitler and Stalin against England, it is necessary to consider this issue in several aspects: geopolitical-economic, political, military and personal.
1. Geopolitical-economic.
<...> England, located on the British Isles, being a maritime power, became the “mistress of the seas.” For Germany and Russia, access to the World Ocean was a constant problem. The main sea washing the shores of Germany, the Baltic, is actually internal, because exit from it to the ocean is possible only through the Kattegat and Skagerrak straits (through the territory of other states), or through the Kiel Canal, which belongs to Germany, which could easily be blocked by the enemy. The outlet to the ocean from the second German sea - the North Sea - is blocked by the British Isles and therefore strictly controlled by England.
Russia has mastered only two of the many seas that wash it - the Baltic, with all the above-mentioned problems of exiting it into the ocean, and the Black, also internal, with exit through the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, controlled by Turkey.
Thanks to this geographical advantage, England was able to create a huge British Empire on which the sun never set. England controlled not only its colonies and dominions, but also the world's reserves of raw materials, as well as sea routes, that is, all international trade.
The violent industry of Germany was in dire need of both raw materials bases and new sales markets for its products; In addition, Germany simply lacked living space for the rapidly growing population.
Russia was also a huge empire, but not scattered around the light, but compactly located and at the same time occupying a good half of Eurasia. She possessed innumerable reserves of raw materials and produced a large number of various agricultural products in need of marketing. Therefore, her interests now and then faced the interests of the British Empire - in the areas of the Black Sea Strait and the Mediterranean Sea, in the Middle and Far East, in Afghanistan and India.
Soviet Russia undoubtedly advocated the involvement of new countries into the world union of socialist states, most of which were either part of the British Empire or depended on it. From this point of view, the collapse of the British Empire would have released many states from its bonds, which, according to the Soviet leadership, could well have taken the path of socialism.
The founder of the German geopolitical school and one of the main theorists and ideologists of the Third Reich, Karl Hausherofer, claimed that world powers are divided into sea and continental, which determines their main contradictions and interests. Therefore, he acted as a supporter of the Union of Germany with the USSR. Most likely, it was his ideas, supported by the Minister of Foreign Affairs by Ribbentrop, a significant part of the Higher General, the East Prussian elite and ambassador to Moscow by Shulenburg, finally received the approval of the Fuhrer (previously pointed to Russia as the main object of military aspirations of the Third Reich in their main work, The Bible of the Nazism "Mine Campf"). The interests of Germany and the USSR for a long time seriously coincided in another question-the need for both countries to eliminate “ostracism” by the great powers, which they have been subjected to since 1939 by decision of the Versailles Conference, led by the British Prime Minister Lloyd-Jordget. Its consequences became: losses of both countries of a significant part of their territories; payment of reparations by Germany; the cessation of diplomatic and economic relations of the most developed countries of the world with Soviet Russia; refusal to receive both countries in the League of Nations; strict restrictions on the army and military industry of Germany; Reducing international trade in both countries. By 1939, some of these issues were removed from the agenda, but the main problem remained - the British empire.
This has created the ground for the sudden conclusion of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact, the Berlin negotiations, the intensive economic and secret military cooperation, possibly even the secret accession of the USSR to the three pact and its transformation into a four pact to participate in the redistribution of the world due to the British inheritance ".
2. Political.
In the context of the monarchy, English parliamentary democracy in the context of both dictators, since it is more clearly than even in the republican-democratic country-the USA, showed the need for the dependence of the head of state (even the monarch!) On the parliamentary "speaking". Moreover, such a “abnormal” state, like Great Britain, for some reason not only did not fall apart without a “strong hand”, but, on the contrary, conquered and for several centuries held half the world under its rule.
3. Personal.
Hitler could not forgive England not only of the post -war humiliations suffered by all of Germany, but also his personal suffering, in particular poisoning during the English gas attack under Iprom, who almost made him a disabled person and forced him, a brave man (he was awarded for the First World War The iron cross of the II and I degrees, during the Second World War, constantly traveled to the fronts), to survive animal fear, possibly even influencing its psyche.
Stalin believed that he knew England well, as he visited the V (London) Congress of the RSDLP there in 1906. He saw a completely unknown life, an incredibly high material standard of life, frightening the achievements of civilization. In combination with an incomprehensible language (which made it difficult not only communication, but also just staying in London) and with constant rains and fogs that were unbearable for the southerner, this “passaging” caused him hatred of abroad, personified in England. It is possible that this was the cause of the minimum (compared to other leading powers of the world) of the USSR economic cooperation with England, and also led to numerous conflicts with her (“Zinoviev’s letter”, ultimatums of Chamberlain and Kerzon, etc.). In the USSR in the 1920-1930s, the expression was to explain many difficulties: the “Englishwoman” shits. ” By the way, in Germany, after the First World War, there was an expression: “God, punish England!”
4. Military.
The scatter of British military contingents around the world led to the fact that by the time of evacuation of 340 thousand soldiers and officers of the English expeditionary corps from France in Dunkerka the number of regular ground forces in the British Islands did not exceed 100 thousand people. Of course, this provoked Hitler to landing in England, despite all the difficulties associated with this. (It is all the more incomprehensible and suspicious that Hitler stopped his tanks in front of the Dunkerk-this made it possible to transport the English expeditionary corps and the remains of the French army (70 thousand people) through the La-Channel, which increased the number of troops protecting England at five. once!)
However, Hitler in any case did not have enough landing vessels for landing, there were no floating tanks, there were few airborne troops. All this was in a huge number of Stalin: cargo ships; Swimming tanks-in the USSR “From 1931 to 1939, 7309 tanks and floating tanks of the T-27, T-37A and T-38 type were produced. By the beginning of the Patriotic War, 5836 such vehicles consisted of the Red Army ”; The Airborne Forces corps, which by 1941 became five (the number of paratroopers in them exceeded the total number of landing troops in all other countries of the world combined). Therefore, most likely after the conclusion during the Berlin negotiations in November 1940, a secret agreement on the participation of the USSR in the landing of landing on the British islands in the border regions of the USSR began to arrive tank and motorized compounds with floating tanks, as well as the Airborne Forces divisions and special air transport regiments for their Air transfers. Over 30 cargo Soviet vessels by May 1941 were transferred to Germany and were in German and Danish ports.
The most important confirmation that Stalin agreed to participate in the USSR in landing on the British Islands is his reaction to warning about the preparatory attack of Germany on the USSR, which came from all sides, primarily from the foreign intelligence of the NKGB and the General Staff intelligence. They caused him not only irritation, but rage: he now and then demanded not only to figure out, but also to punish the perpetrators - people who, sometimes risking their lives, produced this most important information, while he reached the obscene resolutions at them Fields of documents.
There were two reasons for his rage:
1) He could not explain to everyone that the Germans were pulling off the troops to the Soviet border on the basis of his agreement with Hitler, so that with the help of Soviet railway transport to move through the USSR to the Middle East, while German compositions would take Soviet troops to the Northern Sea;
2) He was afraid that the “stupid” generals, both German and his own, would follow the “English provocateurs” and arrange the Soviet-German border conflict, which would break the only opportunity to bring the Soviet armies to the extreme West of Europe, and there Already decide whether to land in England or turn to Germany, opening a joint Soviet-English Western Front against Hitler.
Churchill, having learned about the secret conspiracy of Hitler and Stalin against England, instructed intelligence services to kidnap Hess or lure him to England, and after he managed to do this, he brought to the attention of Hitler that Stalin would never believe that Hess was not sent to them for them for him for Negotiations with Churchill about a joint war against the Bolsheviks, which means that Stalin himself can hit the German troops at any time.
It is very likely that Churchill even agreed with Hitler through Hess about the joint impact on the USSR at dawn on June 22, 1941 and on this day imitated raids on the Soviet naval bases an hour or two before the Germans, that is, he actually provoked Germany’s attack on the USSR . On the morning of June 22, it turned out that Germany should be one against the USSR and wage war on two fronts. |