Translated material
Roads and trails
The path of our teams to Beijing may be long and winding
Last week, the Russian women's softball team failed to win the Euro-African zone qualifying tournament in Italy, sharing fifth place with Great Britain, and lost the opportunity to compete at the 2008 Olympics in Beijing. Previously, the country's men's field hockey team, which was relegated to the third continental division in the 2005 season, football players who did not make it to the final tournament of the 2007 European Youth Championship (under 21), and female football players who did not make it, lost their chance to participate in the Summer Games. among the participants in the September World Cup. Thus, out of 14 possible Olympic tournaments in team sports, our country will no longer play in four. However, these disciplines have never been a priority for Russia. A little over a year remains before the grand opening of the largest sports forum of the four-year anniversary, and we decided to analyze the likelihood of our remaining teams getting into China based on the selection principles.BASKETBALL
Of the dozen vacancies in the men's tournament, two have already been filled - by China as host (as in all other events) and by 2006 world champion Spain. At the upcoming European Championship in this country from September 3 to 16, two tickets are being played out. That is, the Russians need to get to the final, and if the hosts get the right to play in the decisive match, third place will be enough. Also, the best teams of the American Championship will receive two tickets to Beijing; the rest of the world (Africa, Asia, Australia/Oceania) will directly delegate one team each. It is noteworthy how carefully they prepare for the selection in the USA. After the failures of the “dream team” at three major tournaments in a row (the 2002, 2006 World Championships, the Athens Olympics), even for the American Championship, a team of top NBA stars was assembled.
For the losers of the continental championships, there is also a world qualifying tournament (July 6-13, 2008). Of the dozen participants in the world selection (Europe - 4, America - 3, Africa and Asia - 2 each, Australia/Oceania - 1), three teams will receive tickets to Beijing. To have this fallback option, the Russians at Euro 2007 need to take a place no lower than seventh (provided that the Spaniards are higher - this will certainly happen). But this is not an easy task either. At the two previous European Championships, our team, led by Sergei Elevich (2003) and Sergei Babkov (2005), finished eighth. The arrival of David Blatt, an American with an Israeli passport, to the position of mentor and the appointment of an active agent (a purely Russian know-how that raises a lot of questions) Sergei Tarakanov as general manager is not at all a panacea for all the problems of domestic men’s basketball.
There are only two centers on the extended list of candidates for the national team - Alexey Savrasenko and Nikita Morgunov, although the latter is, in fact, a powerful forward. There is a possibility that naturalized American John Robert Holden, whose contract with CSKA has expired, will leave Russia. Will he want to play for our national team, being a player in a foreign club? More likely no than yes. In recent years, the result of the national team depended on whether Andrei Kirilenko’s game went well or not. In his absence, the Russians can lose to anyone, even the middle team of Belgium, as was the case in the Euro 2007 qualifying round. At the final tournament we have a very difficult group - the current champion of the Old World, Greece, Serbia and the winner of the last qualifying stage. It may well turn out to be Israel - also not a gift.
The probability of selection for the men's team is 40% .
The leadership of the Russian Federation set one task for the women's team - to win the European Championship in Italy (September 24 - October 7). This will provide us with a ticket to the Olympics, as well as the winners of all other continental championships. Let us remember that in 2003 the Russians won gold under the leadership of Vadim Kapranov, and two years later with the current mentor Igor Grudin they became second. There is no need to worry about our girls getting into China: to participate in the world selection (June 9-15 next year), it is enough to finish fifth in the Apennines, and at the final qualifying stage enter the top five teams out of a dozen. There are simply not enough strong teams in the world for the Russians to be left without the Olympics.
The probability of selection for the women's team is 95%.
VOLLEYBALL
All medalists of the November World Cup in Japan (men and women) will receive the right to compete at the Summer Games. To be in the Land of the Rising Sun, you need to make it to the finals at the September European Championships. The men's championship of the Old World will take place in Moscow and St. Petersburg. If the Russians do not get to Japan or do not complete their task there, there are still two stages of selection remaining. Continental tournaments (one ticket) will take place on January 7-13, 2008 in Izmir, Turkey (men) and January 14-20 in Halle, Germany (women). Next comes the world qualification. For the stronger sex, the winners of three tournaments (at least four teams in each) will go to the Olympics. For women, the only tournament will take place in Japan (at least eight participants) and you need to be in the top three there.
Our women's team is the current champion of the planet. If the situation gets to the extreme and you have to go to Japan for additional selection (May 17-25, 2008), then it is almost impossible not to complete the task there. As in the case of basketball players, the competition in the world is not great; truly strong teams can be counted on the fingers of one hand.
The probability of selection for the women's team is 95% .
For men, the task is complicated by the fact that at the last two stages of selection it is necessary to win one or another tournament. One defeat can be fatal. The main hope is for the success of Vladimir Alekno’s team in the home European Championship and a stable, failure-free performance at the World Cup.
The probability of selection for the men's team is 80%.
HANDBALL
The Russian women's team won the World Championships twice (2001, 2005), but never competed at the Olympics. Our girls showed their sports heroism at the world championships (held every two years), which handball experts call passing. At championships held at the beginning of the Olympic cycle, teams compete with noticeably updated lineups, and the result for many teams is secondary. But world tournaments in the seasons preceding the Olympics are of much greater importance and end in failure for Russian women.
The current team of Evgeniy Trefilov also missed their first chance to win an Olympic berth. In the Euro 2006 final, the Russians lost to the Norwegians, who, thanks to this victory, secured entry to China. At the 2007 World Championships (December 2-16 in France), another Olympic vacancy will be filled by the winner or the best team among those who have not previously qualified for continental tournaments. By the start of the World Cup, the best teams in Africa, Asia and America will already have booked tickets to China in addition to Norway.
Russia, as a finalist of the European Championship, has already guaranteed itself participation in one of the three world qualifying tournaments (March 28-30, 2008). In total, three quartets will be formed, in each of them you need to take first or second place. The Russians' rivals will be a team from America and the teams that will take second and seventh place at the World Championships. However, the composition of the world selection groups is still only outline. After all, it is possible that Trefilov’s team will defend the title of world champions or, for example, a team that already has a ticket to the Olympics will become seventh (or higher) at the World Cup. Then everything will move. That is, it will be possible to talk about the final composition of the groups at the last stage of qualification only after the end of the tournament in France.
The probability of selection for the women's team is 60% .
For men, everything is a little different, because the “qualifying” world championship took place before the continental ones. Germany won the home tournament and is already preparing for the Olympics. Euro 2008 will take place on January 17-27 in Norway, and its winner will take part in the Games. Russia, having taken sixth place at the World Cup, guaranteed participation in the world qualifications (the scheme is the same as for women). The expected opponents are Denmark (World Cup bronze medalist), the second team in Africa and the representative of Europe.
The probability of selection for the men's team is 80%.
WATER POLO
Our men's water polo is in complete decline - seventh place at the 2007 World Cup, where the winners (Croatia, Hungary, Spain) qualified for the Olympics. Before Boris Popov headed the national team, under the leadership of Alexander Kabanov, water polo players failed several times in a row at major international competitions. You can’t count on winning the 2007 World League, which will give you an Olympic berth. European qualification will take place in September (one place), world qualification (three places) in March next year in Romania. If we manage to gather all the strongest players under the banner of the national team, and not go with only one goalkeeper (as at the 2007 World Cup), then the Russians should make it to Beijing.
The probability of selection for the men's team is 50%.
The Russians are the current European champions, but the winner of the continental qualification (August 20-26, 2007) will receive a ticket to the Games. The backup option is to get into the top three winners at the world selection (March next year, Italy). Women's water polo is cultivated in few places, so the chances of our team are rated quite high.
The probability of selection for the women's team is 90%.
FIELD HOCKEY
On April 19-27, 2008, Kazan will host one of three Olympic qualifying tournaments (six teams each). It is unlikely that the home field will help the Russians be stronger than their opponents. Our field hockey has long been in a state of sluggish stagnation. The women's team (21st place in the world ranking) plays in the second division of the European Championship and is unlikely to be able to take first place in Kazan.
The probability of selection for the women's team is 5%.
BASEBALL
The European Championships will take place in Barcelona on September 7-16. The winner will go to the Olympics, one or two winners (by decision of the international federation) will have the opportunity to play in the world selection. At Euro 2005, the Russians were among the outsiders (11th-12th place), although two years earlier they reached the quarterfinals and won silver in the 2001 season. There is a steady regression and a complete lack of Olympic prospects.
The probability of selection for the men's team is 1%.