Successor Party

Will the third president of Russia participate in the 2007 Duma elections?

During the autumn campaign for the State Duma elections, Vladimir Putin or his successor may join “one of the political parties,” which will subsequently gain a constitutional majority in the State Duma and gain the right to veto decisions of the next head of state. This latest version of the immediate future of the Russian political system after the 2007-2008 elections was recently voiced by the President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), Alexander Shokhin. And the current President Vladimir Putin, according to Mr. Shokhin, can head the Constitutional Court of Russia. How likely is this scenario? The newspaper Vremya Novostei decided to find out the opinion of politicians and political scientists.

It is clear that “one of the political parties” is the ruling party “United Russia”. When a successor, whoever he turns out to be, joins it, the 2008 presidential elections will, in fact, become purely technical, and the specific name and surname of the presidential successor will not carry any special meaning, since the continuity of the course will formally be preserved.

A demonstration of such continuity, as the head of the RSPP believes, was the participation in the recent St. Petersburg Economic Forum of both current potential successors to the president - First Deputy Prime Ministers Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev. True, closer to the 2008 elections, Alexander Shokhin suggested, someone else could become a successor, but he will most likely be a person who does not have significant financial resources behind him - in order to avoid a new redistribution of property. By the way, literally a day after these assumptions by Mr. Shokhin, the leader of United Russia, Boris Gryzlov, and the head of the United Russia election headquarters, Vyacheslav Volodin, said that “one of the deputy prime ministers” could be in the top three of their party’s federal list.

According to Deputy General Director of the Center for Political Technologies Alexei Makarkin, voters would like to see a non-party president. “The appearance of a successor on the list of United Russia is a scenario that was relevant and actively discussed until the moment A Just Russia appeared,” explained the Vremya Novostei political scientist. - In a situation where a successor would top the list of United Russia, it would receive additional points - hardware, image. But the problem is: does the Kremlin need a new CPSU that will increase its influence? The emergence of A Just Russia suggests that it is not needed. The most likely scenario is when the successor is not a member of any of the political forces, and they simply support him. In addition, according to a survey conducted by the Levada Center, voters are already ready to vote for any successor. And if so, then promoting a successor in parliamentary elections is purely optional.”

Leading researcher at the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Dmitry Oreshkin, believes that a successor to United Russia on the list would bring benefits; it would then become a state-forming party: “But I think that this would require too responsible a decision at too early a phase. That is, if one of the deputy prime ministers enters the top three of United Russia, it will be a rather sharp political movement that will immediately cause severe opposition from all other groups of influence participating in this game.”

On the other hand, Mr. Oreshkin clarified that if one of the deputy prime ministers is on the United Russia list, this does not mean at all that he will become a successor. It is possible that A Just Russia will react symmetrically, and the most serious contender for the presidency will remain non-party until the last.

Independent State Duma deputy Vladimir Ryzhkov believes that United Russia would like a successor to join their party, become its leader or at least a member, as this will allow them to win internal competition with A Just Russia. But even if this happens, United Russia will still not become a state-forming structure, because in Russia such a structure is the bureaucracy, not parliamentary parties, the deputy believes.

First Deputy Chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, State Duma deputy Ivan Melnikov does not see any particular benefit for a real presidential candidate from the government to be one of the United Russia three: “It is clear that United Russia would like to have not just a deputy prime minister, but a future president on your lists. But this can only happen if, at the time of getting on the list, neither the leadership of United Russia, nor this or that deputy prime minister himself, knows for sure how the “successor” operation will unfold.

One of the leaders of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation agrees with political scientists that the party in power faces the urgent issue of strengthening its position. “But something here also depends on the group in the Kremlin that finances and promotes Mironov’s “A Just Russia.” If they gain momentum, United Russia will be more willing to take risks and more clearly position itself as the number one party in power. If not, then there will be no point in taking risks. I think the decision - whether presidential contenders should remain “above” the battle or participate in it (in parliamentary elections - Ed. ) - will be made by Vladimir Putin.”

A member of the United Russia faction in the State Duma, Mikhail Grishankov, reminded Vremya Novostey that several members of the cabinet of ministers have already joined the party. This means that it is quite possible that the president’s successor will join her: “I believe that the future president needs some kind of party coloring so that it is clear what political views he adheres to.”

Analysts and deputies doubt the prospects for such a development of events, in which Vladimir Putin could become chairman of the Constitutional Court, while remaining an active participant in the political process and “acting as an arbitrator” on the most important issues of Russian politics, for example, when amending the Constitution. Most of them recognized the position of the head of the Constitutional Court as too shady and not consistent with the ambitions of Vladimir Putin.

Alexey Makarkin believes that Vladimir Putin at the head of the Constitutional Court is exotic. 95% of what the Constitutional Court deals with are issues that concern a very limited number of citizens. “Can you imagine our president writing the reasons for a court decision on the constitutionality of some law on beekeeping? The functions of the Constitutional Court do not provide for the active participation of its chairman in politics. There was only one such precedent in 1993, when the then and, by the way, the current chairman of the court Valery Zorkin tried to play a political role, reconciling Boris Yeltsin and Ruslan Khasbulatov, but it all ended badly,” the analyst recalled.

According to Dmitry Oreshkin, the idea that Vladimir Putin could head the Constitutional Court first appeared six months ago, when the issue of moving the Constitutional Court to St. Petersburg was discussed. According to the analyst, this is a convenient position: personal integrity is guaranteed, but at the same time influence and political status are preserved: “Nevertheless, there is no point in speculating on this topic, because all this is nothing more than PR reasoning. It all depends on how Putin himself sees his future. If he wants to, he will become the chairman of the Constitutional Court, if he doesn’t want to, he won’t.”

Vladimir Ryzhkov believes that Vladimir Putin would rather retain leadership of the Security Council, remain chairman of the State Council, or head the board of directors of some new energy supercompany. Ivan Melnikov is also inclined to think that Vladimir Putin will head a large international energy company. The option of “Ukrainian reform,” when real power passes into the hands of the prime minister, supported by the Duma majority, and the president remains a symbolic figure, is viewed by analysts with some skepticism, but is not completely abandoned.

Daria GUSEVA, Ksenia VERETENNIKOVA