We are returning to Afghanistan

In the story of the moratorium on the implementation of the provisions of the Treaty on ordinary weapons and the Armed Forces in Europe (DOVS), two entertaining details are paid attention to. Firstly, President Putin signed the corresponding decree almost immediately after his famous “Card is distributed, you can start the game”, said in Kennbankport. And secondly, on the eve of the signing, the head of state met with participants in the Russian-American public working group "Russia-USA: a look into the future." On the presidential site, this news was illustrated by a photograph in which Putin was captured with the veteran of American diplomacy, Kissinger, who regularly visit the Kremlin for long conversations with its owner.

All this suggests that Russia's intentions regarding Dovs were in no way "unexpected" for the United States. Moreover, Russian steps are probably explained to Washington and if they were not met in the White House with direct approval, then certainly with understanding. In other words, a moratorium on the implementation of Dovs is perhaps the first move in that very game, the rules and desired result of which were the subject of negotiations of Putin and Bush in the state of Men.

Let us assume that this game is not the most direct relationship to Europe, to the system of European security itself. A much more serious problem for the strategic interests of the Russian Federation and the USA lies in the growing instability in the Middle and Middle East and in the adjacent regions: in Transcaucasia, South Asia, and African horns. Today, it is possible to say with great confidence that a zone of fierce conflicts is formed in the vast space from the Nile to the Indus, which will extremely negatively affect the entire world order. It seems that the escalation of these conflicts will increase for at least a few more years, and only in the medium term (five to ten years) will it be possible to form conditions for their curb. And then only if you get down to business immediately and, as they say, the whole world. Otherwise, the waves from unprecedented socio-political, cultural, territorial explosions and clashes threaten to cause very, very significant destruction of the entire world economic and political system.

In any case, this way or something like this is seen from Washington. The determination with which the American administration rushed to the region, the perseverance with which more and more deepens into its problems, and the perseverance with which it also refuses to discuss the possibility of US departure from there, proves: for America, as they say, "the light converged by a wedge."

Why? Some talk about oil and ways to transport it. Others talk about Iran. The third - on the seizure of control over the way from Central Asia through Afghanistan to the Indian Ocean. There is also a fight against terrorism and Islam, democratization. As well as the creation of a continuous pro -American belt for the confrontation of Russia in the south. Surely everyone is right. But now it does not matter. The only important thing is that America has firmly connected its strategic, vital interests with the Greater Middle East (BBV, as they call the region) and is ready to fight for it at all costs. The farther, the more it is like an obsessive idea. But God is with them!

It is no less important that the Americans, as it seems, were completely convinced: alone with such a complex complex as BBV, they could not cope. Having untied the war on land, in the depths of the continent, they probably first encountered the situation in their military history: the war is not amenable to localization. The thing is that ensuring the safety of the victorious occupation forces requires the expansion of control and occupation zones. And so to infinity. Simply speaking, in order to protect his soldiers in Baghdad, Washington must control (in a military and political sense) all space from Neil to Indus and from the Arabian Sea to the Mediterranean and Caspian. But even the American army is not capable of such a feat. She needs allies, and not only (and not so much) in the regions of hostilities. America needs those who will allow geographically limit these areas, to prevent the uncontrolled spread of war and the corresponding retraction of American troops in operations that do not solve the direct tasks facing the United States.

And the only power capable of such assistance to the Americans is to provide is Russia that it would be advisable to ask to cover the Northern Flank of the BBV: Transcaucasia, Caspian and Central Asia, which must be removed (at least for a while) “beyond the brackets” of the US military -political responsibility so that the Americans can concentrate on more pressing problems and directions. To do this for America is not able to either Europeans or NATO (even if Georgia is accepted into the block tomorrow, this will not solve problems, but, on the contrary, will create a bunch of new ones). There is, however, Türkiye, but Ankara has already done everything that she could, and, apparently, is at the limit of opportunities. The Turkish is no longer able to objectively expand their control zone on the scale of interest in Americans.

Thus, it seems that the logic of the development of the situation in the near and Middle East urgently demands that the Americans allow Russia to return to their wing those regions that have traditionally entered the zone of strategic interests and responsibility of Moscow.

And in this the position and wishes of Washington coincide with the aspirations of Russia. Since for us the "northern flank" of the BBV is the southern, most vulnerable direction, "soft sub -wrap." In Moscow, they are well aware that conflicts erupting into the BBV are ready to merge into one huge fire that will scorch or even set fire to the entire southern border of the Russian Federation. Whoever is guilty in the fact that these conflicts flashed and constantly flare up (even America, even Islamism, even the collapse of the USSR), you need to urgently extinguish them. And in any case, it is necessary to create the most durable barrier in their path to the north. In Central Asia, something has already been done: there is a SCO, a partnership with China is being established. But this is not enough. But the Caspian and Transcaucasia are generally exposed. And the main obstacle that prevents the solution of security in this direction is a DOVSA - a contract written for completely different geopolitical conditions, when the main axis of the confrontation was the "East - West", and not "North - South", as now.

Dovsa's regime conflict with the interests of the two powers striving to solve the general problem: strengthening the "joint" of Russia and the CIS, on the one hand, and BBV - on the other. So, the contract was supposed to be rejected. He was not buried by the “claims” of Moscow to the revival of the former imperial status, not the “aggressiveness” of the Kremlin or President Putin. And not even plans to create a positional area of ​​the Global System of the US NPC in Eastern Europe. Its end was a foregone conclusion from the beginning of the American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as a result of which "black holes" were formed, which delayed more and more countries into conflicts.

If the logic of our reasoning is true, then in a very near future we will be able to observe an improvement in Russian-Georgian relations (at least Tbilisi’s refusal to join NATO), progress in resolving around Karabakh, significant progress in solving the Transdniester problem. All this will happen against the background of the strengthening of the military presence and activity of Russia in the Black Sea region, in the North Caucasus and in the Transcaucasia, in the Caspian, it is possible to create closer, allied relations of the Russian Federation with Azerbaijan, as well as further strengthening ties with Kazakhstan in the military field.

At the same time, you need to be prepared for further degradation of the situation in the vastness of the BBV. There are about new powerful “black holes” (Iran and Pakistan), with nuclear weapons or ready for its production. Moscow has repeatedly emphasized that it is precisely this direction that the threats are made in Europe (as well as the Block Confrontation of the East - West), but an effective opposition to which is impossible due to another outdated (because not corresponding realities of today) - about medium and short -range missiles (RSMD). Therefore, it is thought that the next in line for dismantling after Dovs will be the RSMD mode. And it is completely possible that this move also fits into the game, begun by Putin and Bush in Kennbankport.