150 days until failure

The State Duma will legitimize Russia's withdrawal from the CFE Treaty if necessary

Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted to the State Duma a draft federal law “On the suspension by the Russian Federation of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.” This bill became the legal formalization of the presidential decree on the suspension of Russia’s participation in the CFE Treaty and related international treaties, which was signed on July 13 of this year “due to exceptional circumstances affecting the security of the Russian Federation and requiring the adoption of urgent measures.”

In practice, this means that during the suspension of the treaty, in particular, the provision of information on the movement of troops on Russian territory, the reception and conduct of inspections will be temporarily stopped, Russia will not be bound by any limits on conventional weapons. However, in accordance with the law “On International Treaties of the Russian Federation,” the decision to suspend the validity of international agreements, which include the CFE Treaty, must be formalized in the form of a separate federal law.

The presidential decree explains: the moratorium on the CFE Treaty will last until the NATO countries ratify the agreement on the adaptation of the CFE Treaty, adopted in November 1999 at the Istanbul OSCE Summit, and begin to implement it in good faith. The validity of this document, important for Europe, is suspended 150 days from the date the thirty states party to the treaty receive notification of the Russian side about its decision. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, such a notification was sent to depositories and states parties to the CFE Treaty on July 14.

According to the press service of the lower house of parliament, the bill will be considered by the State Duma (parliamentarians are currently on vacation) at one of the first meetings of the autumn session, which opens on September 5. However, deputies do not plan to hold a special meeting on this issue, and it is possible that consideration of the bill may be postponed even until December 2007 - until the expiration of the 150 days appointed by the president.

No one today can confidently say that the CFE will be buried by the Duma members. On the contrary, the prevailing opinion among knowledgeable people both in parliament and in the Russian foreign policy department is that the CFE Treaty, despite its imperfections, can be revived. To do this, it is necessary that the states party to the treaty agree to work on the proposals formulated by Russia at the emergency conference on the CFE Treaty on June 12-15 in Vienna . It is possible that Russia will implement the position of its General Staff, which proposes to modernize the adapted CFE Treaty or develop a new agreement on this issue. At the same time, Moscow is unlikely to respond to the North Atlantic Alliance’s proposal to hold another, this time an emergency conference on the controversial treaty.

Return to the treaty field of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia; lowering the amount of authorized levels and the availability of treaty-limited weapons and equipment (TME) of NATO countries to compensate for the capabilities acquired by the alliance as a result of its two expansions; adoption of a political decision to abolish flank restrictions for the territory of Russia; developing a common understanding of the term “substantial fighting force” and exercising restraint during the period of its agreement; the entry into force, or at least the commencement of provisional application, of the adaptation agreement no later than 1 July 2008; development of conditions for new participants to join the CFE Treaty and further modernization of the treaty.

Nikolay POROSKOV