Financial Covenant

The President signed the first three-year budget

Yesterday, President Vladimir Putin completed a historic budget process with the stroke of a pen. He signed the law “On the federal budget for 2008 and for the planning period of 2009 and 2010,” Vladimir Putin’s last before leaving the post of head of state. For the first time in Russian history, a three-year budget has been formed. Its main feature was the convergence of the level of income and expenses. Since the early 2000s, revenues have significantly exceeded expenses. At the same time, excess revenues from oil exports were directed to the stabilization fund.

The three-year budget has absolute primacy in the speed of preparation by the government and passage through the State Duma and the Federation Council. Typically, the budget process was completed in late fall and early winter. This year, at the initiative of the president, cabinet ministers, deputies and senators accelerated their progress. The President really did not want the budget to be adopted in the context of the election battle that would unfold in the fall (elections to the State Duma will take place on December 2).

Budget revenues in 2008 are planned in the amount of 6 trillion 644.4 billion rubles, in 2009 - 7 trillion 465.4 billion rubles, in 2010 - 8 trillion 089.9 billion rubles. Expenses should accordingly amount to 6.57 trillion rubles, 7.45 trillion rubles. and 8.09 trillion rubles. (The surplus in 2008 was 74.1 billion rubles, or 0.2% of GDP, in 2009 - 14.2 billion rubles, or 0.04% of GDP, and in 2010 there will be no surplus at all. )

According to the law, Russia's GDP should be 35 trillion rubles. in 2008, 39.7 trillion rubles. -- in 2009, 44.8 trillion rubles. -- in 2010. At the same time, inflation, according to government calculations, will gradually decrease: from 6-7% in 2008, 5.5-6.5% in 2009 to 5-6% in 2010.

In their calculations, government economists based their calculations on an oil price level of $53 per barrel, with a gradual decline to $50 per barrel by 2010. The average annual ruble to dollar exchange rate is estimated at 25.9 in 2008, 26.2 in 2009 and 26.8 in 2010.

In 2008-2010, it is planned to increase salaries in the public sector, and the pay of military personnel and persons equivalent to them will increase. Thus, pensions should increase from 4.2 thousand to 7.5 thousand rubles. in 2010. There is also a gradual increase in the minimum wage from 2,300 rubles. to the subsistence level of an able-bodied person by the beginning of 2011.

Mikhail VOROBYEV