Not a single negative forecast

Fitch Ratings rated Russian banks better than others

The risks to the global banking system are increasing. Analysts from the Fitch Ratings agency came to this conclusion, summing up the quarterly results of rating actions in relation to the world's banks. According to the agency, the share of banks with positive rating forecasts still remains high - 14%, although this is no longer the record 16% that was at the beginning of the year. However, the number of rating downgrades or rating downgrades is beginning to increase noticeably. True, this negative trend does not affect emerging markets, such as Russia. As Fitch explained to Vremya Novostei, in Russia the number of banks with positive rating forecasts is almost twice as high as the world average - about 25%.

So far, the number of ratings downgraded by Fitch is not growing - this quarter the agency downgraded the ratings of only four banks in the world - the same number as in the last quarter. “However, the first sign of increased risks, albeit very moderate, are negative changes in the bank’s rating outlook,” Fitch writes. In the past quarter, the agency made seven rating forecast reductions, while at the beginning of the year there were none. The company placed another 25 banks in the group of those for whom the forecast will be revised, possibly downward. In the first quarter there were only three such financial institutions.

At the same time, it cannot be said that any specific markets carry increased risks: according to company statistics, the ratio of positive and negative ratings and forecasts in developed and developing markets is exactly the same - two to one. Most often, ratings and forecasts are raised in emerging markets. For example, this quarter the agency upgraded the ratings of 11 Brazilian banks. But at the same time, it is in these countries that the factor of political instability is of great importance, which contributes to increasing the risks of this sector. For example, it was the change in the sovereign rating of Turkey due to the political uncertainty that prevailed there that influenced Fitch to revise the forecasts for 16 banks in this country from “Positive” to “Stable”.

If we talk about Russia, where the upcoming elections, despite their predictability, can also increase the factor of political uncertainty, Fitch analysts note that so far the main role in our country is played by the influx of investments in the banking sector. According to agency analyst Alexey Kechko, the situation in the Russian banking system remains quite stable. “This is facilitated by favorable market conditions and an influx of investment. In addition, many banks are now in negotiations with foreign investors, and the appearance of a Western shareholder immediately increases the reliability of the credit institution. Therefore, we currently do not have a single case of a negative forecast for domestic banks. Moreover, now the ratings of 25% of Russian banks that the agency evaluates (in total, Fitch assigns ratings to 48 of our banks) are in the process of being revised upward. This is a very good result,” Mr. Kechko told Vremya Novostei.

In developed countries, where the political situation generally does not affect the banking market, the success or failure of individual banks in mergers and acquisitions is becoming increasingly important. For example, a “Negative” forecast was assigned to the English Barclays Bank, which, having offered to buy the Dutch ABN AMRO, still cannot complete the deal - the target of the takeover is constantly increasing its price. By the way, the rating of ABN AMRO itself was placed by the agency on the “Watch” list with a positive outlook. Apparently, in this way Fitch pays tribute to the skill of the bank, which can trade so well.

Elena KHUTORNYKH