Translated material
The rate is stable
The dollar again fell in price against the ruble by 10 kopecks
After a brief increase in dollar quotes last week, the American currency continued to move down again on Monday. Yesterday, the dollar lost more than 10 kopecks against the ruble due to the fall in world markets. This was facilitated by negative statistics from the US labor market, however, as experts note, the main economic factor is now the ongoing crisis in the American mortgage market. Because of this, the overall backdrop for the dollar remains poor in the medium term. According to the forecast of American analysts, the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate will continue at a more rapid pace, and by the end of the year it could reach 24.7 rubles. for a dollar.The official dollar exchange rate set by the Central Bank decreased yesterday by 0.4% - from 25.55 to 25.45 rubles. The euro exchange rate, on the contrary, increased by 0.5% - from 35.02 to 35.19 rubles. Globally, the euro exchange rate increased by 0.4% - from $1.377 to $1.382 per euro.
The latest macroeconomic information that influenced investors indicated a worsening situation in the American labor market. The number of jobs in the United States in July increased by only 92 thousand, with an expected increase of 127 thousand. Unemployment rose to 4.6%, although analysts had predicted 4.5%.
However, employment problems appear minor compared to the credit crisis. American Home Mortgage Investment, a major US mortgage bank, filed for bankruptcy on Monday. Since the beginning of the year, seven companies have already declared themselves bankrupt, of which New Century Financial is the largest.
"Investors were initially focused on the risks of the subprime market, but now they are wondering whether this is a downturn in the entire US economy," said Kikuko Takeda, head of currency research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
“The main factor influencing the dollar is the expectation of an impending recession in the American economy due to the crisis in the mortgage market,” says Maxim Osadchiy, senior analyst at Antanta Capital. “This crisis has already undermined the pillars of the US mortgage-backed securities business.”
According to Mr. Osadchy, the dollar could be supported by strong mergers and acquisitions, one or two of which would give confidence to the market. In addition, positive financial results from companies may yet emerge.
“This week a monthly report on the execution of the US budget will be published,” recalls Alexey Trifonov, a financial analyst at Forex Club. -- Market participants will also be interested in data on the US import price index, the volume of US consumer lending and changes in the volume of inventories in US wholesale warehouses. Overall, we expect the dollar to continue to decline, but not at such a rapid pace as it is now. It is likely that its quotes will fluctuate without going beyond the July lows.”
American financiers predict an acceleration in the growth of the ruble against the dollar. As the International Herald Tribune reports, Bank of America analysts have prepared a report according to which this year the ruble exchange rate against the dollar will rise to 24.7 rubles. per dollar. At the same time, the ruble exchange rate against the euro will not grow so rapidly. The result of strengthening the position of the Russian currency will be a significant slowdown in inflation. It is known that a 1% increase in the ruble exchange rate against the dollar and euro leads to a decrease in inflation by approximately 0.3%. “The Russian president is likely to allow the central bank to double the rate of ruble appreciation this year, as it has several tools at its disposal outside the foreign exchange market to manage consumer prices,” Bank of America analysts said.