Belarus has repaid its gas debt to Gazprom

Beltransgaz has fully paid Gazprom for gas supplied to Belarus in the first half of the year. The money will arrive in the monopoly’s account only today, but Gazprom has already confirmed that the conflict over the Belarusian debt has been resolved. However, in the fall, state-owned gas companies in Belarus and Ukraine intend to resume negotiations with Gazprom on gas prices in 2008. Gazprom, however, has already stated that Belarus and Ukraine will buy Russian gas according to the price formula written in the contracts.

Yesterday morning, Beltransgaz transferred the last payment to Gazprom to repay the debt for supplies of Russian gas in the first half of 2007. “The payment order for the last tranche has been signed. The money has left Belarus for Gazprom,” said a representative of Beltransgaz, noting that Gazprom will see the money on Thursday and this will correspond to the “agreed payment schedule.” The Beltransgaz representative did not specify the amount of the last payment, but emphasized that it would allow the debt to be fully repaid due to the six-month deferment of payment for 45% of Russian gas. In total, Beltransgaz owes the Russian gas monopoly $456.16 million.

From January 1, by agreement with Russia, Belarus paid for only 55% of supplies at a price of $100 per 1 thousand cubic meters. m (in 2006, Belarus paid $46.68 per 1 thousand cubic meters). Minsk was going to repay the rest from the stabilization loan promised by the Russian Ministry of Finance. But at the end of July it became clear that Russia would not provide a loan. And on August 1, Gazprom warned that in two days it would reduce gas supplies to Belarus by 45%.

On August 2, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko ordered the repayment of the debt to Gazprom, saying that the country's financial reserves allow it to be done. It was assumed that the money for settlements with Gazprom would be taken from the national development fund created last year. Gazprom confirmed yesterday that Beltransgaz has made the last payment and the conflict has been resolved.

The crisis in gas payments can be considered resolved, notes Brokercreditservice analyst Maxim Shein. However, in a month the gas state monopolies of Belarus and Ukraine will resume negotiations with Gazprom on prices for 2008. The price formula for Belarus is written in the contract between Gazprom and Beltransgaz for gas supplies in 2007-2011. From January 1, 2008, the price formula will correspond to the price formula for Russian gas supplies to Europe with a discount from the market price in 2008 to 67%, in 2009 - 80%, in 2010 - 90%. As Sergei Kupriyanov, deputy head of the information policy department at Gazprom, explained, “the actual price will be determined only in January 2008, since the calculations use data for April-December of this year.”

According to industry experts, the price set using this formula will be significantly higher than the current one. “Gazprom now sells gas to Germany for about $280 per 1 thousand cubic meters, and transportation costs are about a third. According to my calculations, the price of gas for Belarus will be set at around $200 per 1 thousand cubic meters,”— says Sobinbank analyst Alexander Razuvaev. Valery Nesterov from Troika Dialog believes that the sharp increase in prices in 2008 is more relevant for Ukraine. “Russia has a special relationship with Belarus within the framework of an interstate union; it certainly deserves a more flexible approach. In addition, the price for Belarus is fixed in an agreement until 2010. As for Ukraine, prices for it will indeed be market prices,” predicts Valery Nesterov.

Ukraine, in the event of an increase in the price of natural gas supplied to the country, has already threatened to increase the cost of transit of Russian gas through its territory by 10%. This was stated last Monday by Deputy Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Yuriy Prodan. Gazprom associates Mr. Prodan’s words with the upcoming elections to the Verkhovna Rada in Ukraine and sees “no grounds for implementing this plan.” “But if it is implemented, we will increase the cost of transit of Central Asian gas, which Ukraine receives from Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, by the same 10%,” Gazprom said.

Alek Kommersant-Akhundov

Beltransgaz completed the calculation