Translated material
Economic baby boom
The growth in the birth rate in Russia is almost equal to the rise in prices
Yesterday, Vladimir Putin reassured Russians by saying that the situation on world financial markets, which have been in a fever in recent weeks due to the crisis in the US mortgage market, cannot seriously negatively affect the Russian economy. “As for fluctuations in world markets and a small outflow of capital, the reaction of our markets to what is happening in North America and Europe, all this cannot have a serious negative impact on the national economy,” the president said at the traditional Monday meeting with government members.This point of view, according to the head of state, is shared by the head of the Ministry of Finance, Alexei Kudrin, who is on vacation. Minister of Economic Development and Trade German Gref has a similar opinion. Unlike his colleague Kudrin, he was present at the meeting in the Kremlin. “Basically, we do not see any serious global risks (for the Russian economy. - Ed. ),” the minister noted. Moreover, according to him, the financial situation in the world has stabilized. Therefore, Mr. Gref is optimistic about the state of the Russian financial and stock market. According to him, last week the stock index in Russia grew by more than 3%. “We have practically restored the market in relation to January 1 (2007 - Ed. ),” said German Gref, noting that only 0.03% is enough to reach the level of the beginning of the year.
The minister is absolutely not afraid of the current net outflow of private capital from Russia. According to the government's initial estimates, this figure was supposed to be $9 billion in August, but in fact it turned out to be $7.6 billion. “This is a small outflow,” said German Gref. “Taking into account the fact that there was a large influx - $70 billion (since the beginning of the year - - Ed. ), the adjustment is normal,” stated Vladimir Putin.
Let us recall that in the first half of the year, the flow of financial resources into Russia (among them large loans from Russian state-owned companies) led to a record increase in the volume of net capital inflows. The authorities were forced to raise the forecast for the year to $70 billion. However, already in July, due to the crisis in global financial markets, the process slowed down - inflows and outflows approximately equalized. In August, the outflow exceeded the inflow by $7.6 billion. According to the Renaissance Capital company, since the beginning of the year, the influx of speculative capital of non-residents into the Russian financial markets alone amounted to approximately $25 billion, of which the majority was $20 billion. - has already been withdrawn.
Meanwhile, the rapid development of the Russian economy this year - GDP and industrial production, for example, grew in the first half of the year by 7.9 and 7.8%, respectively - forced the Ministry of Economic Development to revise the annual forecast of key macroeconomic indicators. The new forecast, as reported by German Gref, will be ready by the end of September. According to the minister, in particular, the GDP growth rate will be increased - from the current 6.5 to 7.2-7.4%. Also, without a doubt, forecasts for the growth of industrial production and investment will increase.
But plans for inflation, despite the fact that it clearly does not please officials, will not change. According to Mr. Gref, in August it will not exceed 0.2%, and the government, unlike independent experts, still hopes that by the end of the year it will be possible to reach the level of 8%. And this is at 6.6% for January-July.
In order to ensure that the rise in consumer prices in the fall and in December does not exceed 1.2% in total - this is exactly how much is left to the established level - Mr. Gref proposed taking measures to control the food market, especially grain (see material on this same page) , and petroleum products.
The ruble has strengthened by 3.9% since the beginning of the year. “In August there was no growth in the national currency; there was even a slight weakening. This is a fairly positive factor,” said the head of the Ministry of Economic Development. According to him, the problem with the temporary “lack of banking liquidity that occurred in the market has been successfully repaid by the Central Bank.”
The stable economic situation in Russia in recent years has led to what, in fact, it should have led to. Russian women, apparently believing, if not in a beautiful and happy future, then at least in a decent future, began to give birth to more children. First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev pleased the meeting participants with the message that 142 thousand Russians were born in the first half of the year, and this is a record for post-Soviet Russia.
“The demographic situation is really developing quite well this year. The birth rate increased from January to July by 6.5%, and mortality also decreased by 6.5%,” said the First Deputy Prime Minister. Financial assistance to mothers from the state plays a role in the growth of the birth rate. Mr. Medvedev said that the number of women who now have the right to receive child care benefits for up to one and a half years has been increased. “2 million women receive these payments. Plus, a new category has emerged - women who have not worked before. There are about 1 million people,” noted the First Deputy Prime Minister. “This work must be continued,” the president concluded the discussion. Actually, no one argued.