Stability until the last second

“If Putin had installed Ivanov, everyone would have spent six months building relationships with the new president.”

Vremya Novostei correspondent Ksenia VERETENNIKOVA asked political scientists about the meaning of replacing the prime minister and the chances of possible successors to the president in light of the appearance of an unexpected head of government.

“If Putin had installed Ivanov, everyone would have spent six months building relationships with the new president.”

Joseph DISKIN, co-chairman of the National Strategy Council:

— I would rule out the possibility of a future strengthening of the government’s role so that Putin becomes prime minister. Then Vladimir Vladimirovich would not have dismissed Fradkov right now. The President generally formulates his intentions quite precisely. He said that he would act as president until the last second. If he had such a scheme in his head, the government would, according to the Constitution, resign its powers before the elected president after the inauguration. The decision on the candidacy of the prime minister is absolutely clear. The President does not want to be a lame duck for the remaining six months. Such an appointment most likely means strengthening the position of Sergei Borisovich Ivanov. It is clear that Zubkov cannot be a successor due to at least simply his age - he is 65 years old. And Sergei Borisovich had the capabilities to conduct PR activities, and he retained them in full. He has fewer losses - he won’t have to make unpopular decisions. And what he does is quite popular. If Putin had appointed Ivanov, all the intrigue would have ended, and for six months everyone would have been building relationships with the new president. One might assume that Putin is going to appoint a successor as prime minister so that he gets into the role. But it turned out that it was more important for him to maintain control and ensure stability until the last second.

"Putin changed the power configuration, remaining the main player"

Alexey MAKARKIN, Deputy General Director of the Center for Political Technologies:

- It feels like our president has changed the power configuration, while remaining the main player. He introduced a new component into the process of competition for succession. The president made an unexpected decision. This decision may mean that new figures are being thrown in, and the issue of succession fades into the background. Now everyone will discuss the composition of the government: who will come and who will leave. And the second question that will be on the agenda: “Who are you, Mr. Zubkov?” Is it a successor, or a person who will have to provide political support for the elections. And here the president solves several problems. Firstly, he puts in his man, who has been following him since the early 90s. Secondly, it immediately changes the agenda. The competition over succession, which has sharply intensified recently, fades into the background, and Putin remains the head of state and rules everything. The President made an unexpected move. This move was accompanied by a campaign to oust Viktor Zubkov from the Senate.

"Putin is actually leaving"

Vitaly IVANOV, Deputy General Director of the Center for Political Conjuncture:

— I have long had a hypothesis that, since the current political situation differs in many respects from the situation in 1999, there is accordingly no need to nominate a successor through his appointment as prime minister. In 1999, Yeltsin was absolutely weak and unpopular, and the Fatherland-All Russia coalition was launching an attack on the Kremlin. Putin was unknown and not promoted enough. It was necessary for the country to recognize him for him to become a national leader. He had to be presented as a full-fledged president, to whom Yeltsin would give all his power in the near future. Therefore, it was necessary to put him in the second post in the country. Putin, leaving in 2008, is actually leaving. And our president will be different in strength and power. Probably, after leaving the presidential post, Putin will remain the first person of the state, how this will be formalized is still unknown. But in any case, he must create a certain configuration of the power system. Accordingly, the chairman of the government should not be nominated by the new president, but directly appointed by Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. And this combination, apparently, was played out before our eyes today.

"The prime minister's successor may not be what we think"

Alexander KONOVALOV, President of the Institute for Strategic Assessments:

- Why do you think that Zubkov cannot be a successor? It all depends on what the president wants from him. Maybe if the president decides to implement a plan I call “Leave to Stay.” This plan is difficult to implement in Russia. But look: Putin has recently been placing in key positions people who have absolutely nothing to do with the business they are entrusted with, but who are absolutely loyal to him and who understand such issues as control of financial flows. This is how our Minister of Defense and the Chairman of the Central Election Commission were appointed. Governors also change to presidential ones. Putin behaves like a man who will take a certain position, and not like a man who will leave it. In my opinion, this may mean an attempt to implement the strategy developed in the Kremlin. This strategy consists of electing a technical president who sits, warms his chair and quietly dozes for a year or a year and a half. And then early presidential elections are announced, in which Putin again triumphantly wins. And before him again there are two terms, at least four years. And in this case, the prime minister's successor should be completely different from what we think. Not young, handsome and energetic, but better sick and absolutely old.